Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Minister of Energy and Resources Colleen Young on Sept. 4, touring the Steel Reef Viewfield Gas Plant. Just a few miles due south of that plant, EMP Metals has found the highest lithium concentrations in Canada to date. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
REGINA – With China announcing strict export controls on rare earth minerals on Oct. 9, and US President Donald Trump immediately responding with another round of tariffs, critical minerals are rapidly rising in importance not just economically, but geopolitically. While lithium is not a “rare earth element,” it is definitely a critical mineral and a key component in many battery formulations. Most global lithium processing takes place in China, so developments with rare earth elements could spill over into the lithium space.
Just a few days earlier, Saskatchewan announced its long-awaited lithium royalty structure on Oct. 6. The announcement came at a critical time, as several companies are on the path to move from lithium explorers to lithium producers, which would place them as the first commercial lithium producers in this province. Those companies are working on developing financing to move into commercial production, but surely among first questions any financial backer will want answered is “how much is the government’s take?”
That question has been answered: “The new royalty framework sets a Crown royalty rate of 3 per cent of the value of brine mineral sales, with a two-year holiday for new productive capacity.”
That rate is in line with potash royalties, but a fraction of oil and gas royalty rates. Brine lithium production in Saskatchewan will be almost indistinguishable from oil and gas production, using similar production techniques and services. However, oil extraction is also a much, much higher concentration of the desired product compared to lithium in salt water brines. In both cases, you’re moving a lot of water, but for lithium, it is a lot more water.
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Pipeline Online published the reaction from most of the Saskatchewan players in this story last week. All of those reactions were positive. On Oct. 9, Minister of Energy and Resources discussed in depth with Pipeline Online by phone how this royalty was arrived at. This is that verbatim interview.
Pipeline Online
Can you speak to the timing of the announcement? It looks like companies like Prairie Lithium are on the verge of commercial production, as soon as they can get some financing. Having a known royalty rate will be crucial in raising that financing and reaching commercialization stage. Was that a driving factor?
Minister of Energy and Resources Colleen Young
It’s somewhat some of it. I mean, we’ve had quite a bit of discussions with the industry and where they sit currently, with regards to getting to production as quickly as possible and making sure their finance is in place. I mean, the government of Saskatchewan is aiming to strike a balance with our royalty and tax systems, because we want to encourage investment while also receiving that fair return on the production of a resource for the people in this province. So, we work closely with the industry, and, I’ve had the discussions to see where we need to get to in order for them to be able to attract that investment and to get themselves into production sooner rather than later.
Pipeline Online
So why, specifically, was 3% chosen as opposed to something that’s closer to what oil and gas pays, which is closer to 17%, especially given that the industry in Saskatchewan is not going to be mining in a way that we do for most of our below ground potash. It’s very closely modeled on oil and gas extraction.
Colleen Young
Yeah, well, you know that depending on the specific commodity, the economics of development can be very different, and these are influenced by geology, industry’s level of technological readiness for production, the capital intensity of new operations, the timelines to get to development, access to infrastructure and market factors like pricing and the royalty frameworks of other jurisdictions that are competing for that same investment.
Hub City Lithium, now EMP Metals, pulling core on Aug. 13, 2024, near Stoughton. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
And so the three per cent royalty rate, along with the two year holiday and other incentive programs, is trying to position Saskatchewan to attract lithium investment and build that world class sector that is growing and is highly competitive in a global industry.
So, while the growth and innovation we have seen in the recent years shows that they’re on the right path, the lithium industry in Saskatchewan and Canada is still in early stages, so we’ve designed this royalty structure to kind of help derisk the significant upfront investment that is needed to develop these lithium projects.
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Pipeline Online
So I guess you’ve kind of answered this, but how was the decision made, and what does this mean for industry now the royalty rate is chosen. What happens next?
Colleen Young
Well, for the brine lithium, our resource potential is strong. I mean, they are in competition with other global hard rock places like Australia that has proven economic brine resources, as well as South America, and one of their major ones is that deep brine jurisdictions with higher grades, like Arkansas.
So, to be competitive, we have to look more at the overall return on capital to attract investment. So as I said, we have consulted with the industry, and they know the competition that they have out there in attracting that investment. So, in having our discussions with them, made sure that, you know this was close to what that is. Their royalty rates are, like Arkansas is 2.5% so 3% is just a little over that, and it’ll still bring us, a return on that once it’s into production. So we did have extensive consultations with the brine lithium industry. And now that it’s in place, I think the industry and the government has the certainty they need to develop and invest in lithium projects here in the province.
Pipeline Online
So playing devil’s advocate here, your predecessor, Eric Cline, who wrote a book about this, on potash, he was the one who established the 3% royalty on potash to get the expansions that happened earlier this century. And it worked. But since then, he’s felt it’s inappropriate to keep them so low. And he and I spoke about this about 18 months ago, and again, on the podcast in January. The issue he had is that once he established something at a low rate, it’s very difficult to raise it later, and it’s he also felt it was inappropriate to leave him at a low rate forever. Any thoughts on that?
Colleen Young
Well, you know what? Competition is what it’s all about, right? And when industry is making significant investments, look at BHP, look at K+S, look at the investments that are being made in the potash industry and the growth that is happening. It isn’t just about those royalty rates. It’s about the fact that the revenues that are created once there’s larger production happening in the province, and we believe it creates the right balance of keeping that strong, consistent and predictable regulatory framework that attracts the investment and gives that opportunity for our industries to continue to grow and produce in this province.
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Pipeline Online
So again, on the devil’s advocate side here, 3% some might say, is next to nothing. And since there doesn’t seem to be a mechanism, at least announced at this point, to increase it later, how many hospitals can you build at 3%, because on a billion dollars of revenue, that’s only $30 million in royalty, which won’t build a single high school.
Colleen Young
Well, you know what? I would say that while it’s too early to speculate about revenue generation and in this industry, we do have strong hopes for the growth of the lithium industry in this province, and like all of our other emerging commodities, the royalty framework is focused on competitiveness to ultimately attract that investment that will be needed to establish and grow an industry in the province that you know globally is in demand. And the technologies they have and the way they’re doing it, I think that it will grow and it will help us achieve our goal of reaching our provincial critical mineral strategy of doubling the number of critical minerals reproduced in this province, in addition to the uranium, potash and helium industry, now that you’ve seen is also significantly investing in this province.
Arizona Lithium, now again Prairie Lithium, pushing its Pad No. 3 near Tribune on Oct 4, 2024. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
Pipeline Online
For sure. Why didn’t you follow the oil sands model, which was 1% until pay out 25% after?
Colleen Young
Like I said, we’ve had numerous and extensive consultations with the Saskatchewan brine lithium industry to develop this framework for them. And now that the royalty framework is in place, I think the resource companies have certainty that they need to develop, invest and get lithium into production in this province, and get it to those global markets that are there looking for it.
So the response in the last couple of days that you’ve seen is they’re very supportive of this structure.
So it’s worth noting that we will be closely monitoring it as it evolves over the years ahead, to make sure that we are striking the right and careful down so attracting that investment and getting a fair return for the people of Saskatchewan.
I know it’s still early, so give us some time, and we’ll see where we go. But you know what? All of the industry in this province, every conference I’ve attended, every conversation I have had with industry in this province is extremely appreciative of the strong, predictable and regulatory framework that we have in this province that allows them to grow and attract the investment that is needed.
I’m going to be meeting in the next week here or so once again with Dr. (Christian) Meyer from Germany, with K+S. TThere’s a lot of work, work being done there, and Nutrien as well. There’s a lot of talk about where things are going to go in the province, even with the potash industry. So you know that that predictable framework that we’d have in place has held true to industry wanting to be here, and even the mining industry in Saskatchewan. So you’ll, you can see it, Brian, you know, as I do, so that’s what’s kept them coming.
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Pipeline Online
Were there any other models considered, and if so, why were they rejected?
Colleen Young
I don’t think any were rejected. I mean, as I said, you know, the conversation with the industry is the most important piece. They’re the ones who advise us and tell us what is working and what they need in order to attract investment. So what they saw with all the other industries in the province, they were quite happy to work with us on what they believe was going to work for them, to continue to grow and I invest here.
Pipeline Online
I’ve spoken to most of them, and I asked them if they were dancing up and down all day. So is there anything you’d like to add, minister?
Colleen Young
I’m looking forward to, you know, meeting that critical minerals growth target, and working with these industries has been very, very good, with the leadership they have and with the work that they’re doing in their province, in our province, I’m very proud of the opportunity that I have to sit down with them and, work on these things and make sure that new investment is coming here, and that they are able to get their business into production so well.
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