Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Minister of Justice and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre, releasing the tribunal report on the federal oil and gas emissions cap and Methane 75. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
In the meantime, the Saskatchewan Party government is trying to increase production by a third by 2030
Sask. First Act Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal reports its findings on federal oil and gas emissions cap and Methane 75
SASKATOON – The federal Liberal government has proposed a greenhouse gas emissions cap for Canadian oil and gas production. It has also proposed “Methane 75,” which would see a 75 per cent cut in methane emissions by 2030.
The Government of Saskatchewan passed the Saskatchewan First Act in March, 2023, to fight against federal climate change initiatives that would cause this province harm, specifically in areas where the province asserts jurisdiction under the Constitution. That Act laid out a process to assess what sort of harm Saskatchewan might endure via the Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal. That assessment could then be used as evidence in subsequent legal battles.
Earlier in 2024 the tribunal released its assessment of the Clean Electricity Regulations. In early September, it reported its second assessment, looking into the oil and gas emissions cap and Methane 75. On Sept. 24, Minister of Justice and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre released the report, as well as hundreds of pages of submissions and reports that it was based upon. The press conference took place in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party government’s stance has been that an emissions cap would be a de facto production cap. And that, indeed is what the tribunal found, one that could reduce oil and gas production by half in 25 years.
Fundamentally, the tribunal found that if implemented, the emissions cap and Methane 75 could cost Saskatchewan many billions of dollars and result in a reduction of production of up to 41 per cent by 2030, 43 per cent by 2040, and 52 per cent by 2050 compared to today. (ranges were given, these are the high end of those ranges.)
That is in stark contrast to the Saskatchewan Party government’s stated goal of growing current oil production by roughly one third, to 600,000 barrels per day, by 2030.
The tribunal was made up of:
- Michael W. Milani, K.C. Chairperson
- Janice MacKinnon, Vice-Chairperson
- Kenneth From
- Stuart Smyth
- Estella Petersen
Notably, Ken From is former CEO of SaskEnergy, PTRC, and Technical Safety Authority of Saskatchewan and as well as oil producing companies. Janice MacKinnon is a former NDP finance minister. Michael Milani is a Regina lawyer. Stuart Smith is an agricultural researcher. Estella Peterson is an oilsands worker.
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Pipeline Online will have extensive coverage over the following days and weeks on this report and its numerous submissions. However, as it took over 800 kilometres of driving to Saskatoon and back on Tuesday to attend this press conference, please allow some time to provide the reporting in depth.
These are Eyre’s opening remarks during the press conference, in video and transcript. Note that YouTube decided to include a climate change disclaimer on the video:
Thanks so much for being here. Very pleased to comment on the most recent independent report by the Economic Impact Assessment Tribunal, which was established under the Saskatchewan First legislation, and chaired by Michael Milani, KC, vice chaired by Janice MacKinnon. I want to thank the tribunal the report’s authors, who truly rolled up their sleeves, put in some 400 hours of work, as I understand it, to produce a very in depth, complex economic analysis of the impact of the federal Methane 75 regulations and the federal oil and gas cap, and before that, of course, the federal clean electricity regulations they should be very proud of their work, and you’ll have a chance to speak to the chair Michael Milani following my remarks, I understand he’s going to be beamed in here virtually.
So the numbers, the findings in the report are dramatic, as you can see, and I understand the report was released to you yesterday. Keep in mind that it is fully within the remit of the tribunal to find that there was no economic harm or minimal economic harm, and that’s not what the tribunal found.
Keep in mind, also, that in many cases, over the course of both the reports, the tribunal has relied on the same experts as the federal government. And the federal government has relied on them in previous reports and in previous work. So, for the federal government to call this tribunal ideological, which it has, is disrespectful and frankly, ridiculous, particularly as experts hired by the federal government have also found economic harm.
Most recently, over the course of the summer, federal Natural Resource Minister Jonathan Wilkinson’s own department did focus group research which reported that Canadians aren’t seeing a quote, “clear path forward on federal climate programs, that they question the point, and most of all, are wary of the cost.”
Also, federal auditors have recently called out Steven Guilbeault’s department for what they call poor oversight of millions of dollars in green subsidies. Management of taxpayer money has been so sloppy that there is a risk, say auditors, of potential legal and reputational damage to the federal government, as reported by Blacklocks quote, “There is no overarching strategy that guides the overall federal investment in the pursuit of clean technology for either economic or environmental outcomes. The cumulative impact of these decisions, from research through to adoption, is not monitored, measured or attributed.” End quote.
So that’s not good. That sounds like they need a tribunal. We can offer them plenty of facts and evidence.
Clearly, the economic harm represented by these two federal mandates is real. The economic harm is also evidence. In this case, independent, quantitative evidence. Every case needs evidence. And if we are to challenge these harmful economic policies, constitutionally or otherwise, we have to have evidence. This arms us with evidence.
The Saskatchewan First Act regulations are very clear. These reports can be used as evidence, and this evidence is ultimately about people. It’s about jobs, and it’s about the economy.
By 2050 with these two mandates, royalty and tax revenue losses, up to $7 billion lost government revenues in Saskatchewan, $43 billion and up to 34,000 job losses.
And the kicker, as the Explorers and Producers Association has also stated is that, quote, “The inclusion of methane emissions as part of the oil and gas cap will not see additional reductions in emissions.”
Will not see additional reductions in emissions these mandates, quote, “simply add costs onto the sector for the sake of adding costs.”
When people say, “So what?” When they say, “This is no big deal,” when they say, “You’re piling on the feds,” I say to quantify and protect these jobs, is our job. Whatever it takes.
Quebec would do it. So why can’t Saskatchewan? If we don’t say it, and highlight the problem and highlight the harm, who does?
Saskatchewan First means something.
The federal government also cannot do any of this constitutionally. Oil production, methane regulation fall exclusively within provincial jurisdiction over natural resources under Section 92A of the Constitution.
The nuts and bolts of specific industries and regulating them is provincial turf.
In the carbon tax case, dissenting judges in particular expressed concern that the carbon tax regulations would either benefit or penalize different industries across the country. In other words, the Supreme Court was worried that the federal government would pick industrial winners and losers, which is exactly what they’ve done, exactly what’s happened.
And we’ve seen this patchwork, this uneven application of regulations by the federal government so many times, too many times, including, of course, with the carbon tax, when the federal government decided to carve out an exemption for Atlantic Canada.
And now the wheels are coming off. BC NDP premier David Eby is now calling for the elimination of federal carbon pricing. And Ms. Beck, she claims to have been against it all along. It’s called a bandwagon. But we have challenged these policies all the way from the beginning.
So I’ll leave it there, and happy to take your questions.
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Editor’s note: Pipeline Online provides the in-depth coverage of Saskatchewan’s energy industry that no other media comes even close to. Here’s some light reading explaining the Saskatchewan First Act, how it came about, and how it is being implemented. There is much more to come on this story.