As Brian Zinchuk noted in an article two weeks ago, “weak men create hard times.” The events that have unfolded before us of late have certainly reinforced this. Putin has turned the world upside down, and is currently working his plan to reinstate the former Soviet Union. How is he able to accomplish this? Despite the size of the Russian army, the Ukraine has been giving them a fair amount of grief. Why is NATO not well-positioned to just roll in and say no to Mr. Putin? Sadly, Canada and the United States are to blame in my opinion.
All this reminds me of a four minute clip from a television series I watched a while back. It was called “Homeland,” a series about CIA operatives battling terrorists after 9-11. The clip I am referring to is a field agent named Peter Quinn giving a report to the brass at the CIA. Long story short, he tells the brass that the trouble is that the West has no strategy, while ISIS does. If you’ve never seen this clip, I recommend it highly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03b-d6Kb0Nw
The West has spent the last twenty years developing a non-strategy. This goes for Canada, the United States and a chunk of Europe as well. We have wasted time deciding that we should run away from fossil fuels to technologies that are not fully developed yet. So, we shoot down valid projects, such as pipelines and impose tanker bans so that we may save the earth from greenhouse gases. It’s a supposedly “critical” threat that required our leaders to burn immense amounts of jet fuel to meet and pretend to solve a future problem. So now our “strategy” has allowed a tyrant to invade the Crimea in 2014, and now the rest of Ukraine in 2022. The intel points to further incursions very soon.
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Europe has become largely dependent on Russian fossil fuels and natural gas. This is our fault. We became swayed, bullied and coerced into believing that we could switch over to renewable energy quickly. And as we have seen so far, it is unreliable and lacking in the baseload power required which sustains our way of life.
Putin has had a strategy all along. Ignore Greta Thunberg and her supporters. Develop natural gas and petroleum reserves. Work with Europe to build pipelines and facilities to move these products into their markets. Strategize to make incursions during points when leadership in the West is weak. (Obama, Biden, Trudeau, Boris Johnson, Merkle, Steinmeier, etc.) When the time is right, proceed with the plan. Is the Russian military the best? Hell no, but they have the numbers, the equipment and some experienced leadership. Putin has also maintained good relations with China. (They have the largest standing army in the world.) China also supplies the West with cheap goods and electronics, so we are inexorably tied to them financially. When you step back, take a look, and read some of the intel written by some pretty smart people. His strategy is spot on and working to perfection. There are reports of Putin covertly supporting “Green New Deal” and pipeline protestors in North America. Don’t forget Putin’s wildcard. He has nuclear weapons and claims he will use them.
What is our strategy? There isn’t one. Putin is playing multi-level chess, and we aren’t even playing checkers. We are barely playing “Go Fish.” We worry about problems created by people that do not understand geopolitical strategy, and spend our time and treasure there. Our strategy has been to ignore a man creating a situation right in front of our eyes, in real time.
It’s never too late to start a new strategy
Even if we spend the money on these projects, and we never have to use them at full capacity, would this not cost less than a prolonged war with Russia? This does not even factor in the human cost, or the potential destruction created by a limited nuclear strike. These are scenarios that are unthinkable, but sadly very possible. But, if we pull our collective heads out of the sand, we can start building pipelines where needed, along with shipping facilities and be ready. We can and will be the safe, ethical solution to the world’s energy needs. And, while we are doing this, continue to develop cleaner, cheaper, more efficient replacements for the future. If we had been doing this all along, we would not be paying ridiculous prices for fuel today.
Photo licensed to Brian Zinchuk via Storyblocks
We are too late for this round of the game, but if we are resourceful, smart and pay close attention to what is going on, maybe we can be ready for the next match. A change in current leadership for starters. The grownups need to sit down and make a strategic energy plan, along with a updated NATO plan. Maybe instead of sending billions in aid to other countries we protect them in advance with energy security. Queen to knight 5. Or go fish. We need to decide what game we are playing, or we will continue to get played.
Brian Crossman is a partner with Independent Well Servicing where he does field supervision and marketing.
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