Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Wind turbines near Pincher Creek, Alberta, on Dec. 1, 2023. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
Wind and solar power production across Alberta proved to be an abject failure on both counts mid-day on Thursday, Jan. 2.
Actually, that might be putting too fine a point on it, as both showed abysmal power production numbers throughout entire day.
At 1:04 p.m., when the sun was just coming off its highest point of the day, total solar production was just 131 megawatts out of a nameplate capacity of 1,812 megawatts. That’s 7.2 per cent of capacity.
But wind was even lower. Alberta’s now 50 grid-scale wind farms with a collective capacity of 5,688 megawatts was churning out just 16 megawatts. That’s 0.3 per cent of nameplate capacity.
Only four of the 50 grid-scale wind farms in Alberta were producing any power whatsoever. They included Sharp Hill Wind (8 megawatts out of a 297 megawatt capacity), Grizzly Bear (5 megawatts of 152 megawatt capacity), Bull Creek 1 (2 megawatts out of 13) and Bull Creek 1 (1 megawatt out of 16).
These numbers came from the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO), which posts minute-by-minute data on the Alberta electrical grid here.
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Alberta’s internal load was 11,657 megawatts. Without copious amounts of natural gas-fired power generation, the lights would have gone out across the province. At that moment, cogeneration was producing 5,261 megawatts of 6,090 megawatts capacity. Combined cycle natural gas was producing 3,490 megawatts of a 3,942 megawatts capacity. Gas-fired steam (coal plants converted to natural gas) were producing 1,409 megawatts out of 3,078 megawatts capacity. And simple cycle natural gas, generally used for peaking power production, was producing 769 megawatts out of 984 megawatts capacity.
In total, natural gas-fired power generation was producing 10,929 megawatts out of the Alberta total net generation of 11,619 megawatts, or 94.0 per cent of total power generated. X account @ReliableAB noted earlier in the day that percentage was as high as 96 per cent, the highest Pipeline Online has seen in three years of regular coverage of this type. That occurred at 12:59 a.m., which of course meant there was zero solar output at that moment.
At this moment 96.1% of Alberta's electricity is being produced by fossil fuels. Wind is at 0.6% of capacity and producing 0.3% of total generation, while solar is at 0% of capacity and producing 0% of total generation. At the same time, we are exporting 68 MW, which is 0.6% of… pic.twitter.com/ItTZdXQfa1
— Reliable AB Energy (@ReliableAB) January 2, 2025
With temperatures of -27 in Grande Prairie, -22 in Edmonton and -16 in Calgary, the long and short of it is that without natural gas-fired power, Alberta would have been freezing in the dark (save for daylight through windows).
Two hours later, the renewable numbers were even lower, with wind hitting 12 megawatts and solar down to 47.
Indeed, if you checked @ReliableAB’s logs throughout the day, posting every two hours, you find that wind output had fallen to 91 megawatts by 8:59 p.m. on Jan. 1, and hovered around 1 to 2 per cent capacity throughout the following 24 hours. Only 24 hours later, at 8:59 p.m., did the log show wind had risen to 111 megawatts, or 2 per cent capacity. By 10:04 p.m., wind was at 145 megawatts, slowly climbing.
The low power output from wind and solar had an impact on pricing, with the maximum pool price for power hitting $465.74 per megawatt-hour during the 5 p.m. hour.
At this moment 93.4% of Alberta's electricity is being produced by fossil fuels. Wind is at 2.0% of capacity and producing 1.0% of total generation, while solar is at 0% of capacity and producing 0% of total generation. At the same time, we are importing 195 MW, which is 1.7% of… pic.twitter.com/VMB7400Bp5
— Reliable AB Energy (@ReliableAB) January 3, 2025
Two years ago similar circumstances saw Alberta go into a grid alert scenario. However, the addition of substantial new natural gas-fired capacity has averted such crises, so far. @ReliableAB noted, “On Dec 01, 2022 @ 5pm it was -22 and Alberta had a level 3 emergency energy alert. Wind and solar combined was only generating 84 MW, total generation was 11000 MW. Tonight the total generation is 500 MW higher & we’re only importing 358 MW. Reserve requirements are being met and there are no alerts.”
On Dec 01, 2022 @ 5pm it was -22 and
Alberta had a level 3 emergency energy alert.Wind and solar combined was only generating 84 MW, total generation was 11000 MW.
Tonight the total generation is 500 MW higher & we're only importing 358 MW.
Reserve requirements are being… https://t.co/tdvaOnYmJy
— Reliable AB Energy (@ReliableAB) January 3, 2025
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Zero for two
Over in Saskatchewan, Pipeline Online stopped by the brand new Bekevar Wind Facility near Kipling on Sunday, Dec. 29. It was the second visit to the site, the first being on Nov. 15., its inaugural day in operation.
And for the second time in a row, not one wind turbine turned at all for the entire hour Pipeline Online was on site, driving from one end of the project to the other and stopping several times to post live videos on Facebook. There are 36 turbines at the new wind farm, tied for the largest in Saskatchewan.
Here’s one of those posts:
The 200 megawatt facility cost in excess of $300 million.
Also on Jan. 2, an error was identified in SaskPower’s daily reporting of its power generation on its Where Your Power Comes From webpage. There was an error in allocating the Great Plains Power Station, now fully commissioned, under “other” instead of natural gas. And Bekevar was not being counted at all. This was unnoticed for several weeks, apparently, but SaskPower has updated its reporting now.
The error was initially noticed by Saskatchewan’s X electrical watchdog, X account @SkElectricity, which posts daily logs based on SaskPower’s publicly posted data. SaskPower immediately moved to correct the error.
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