CNRL’s oil sands operation in northern Alberta. Screenshot/YouTube/Canadian Natural

OPEC publishes regular reports on global oil production. This is what it said about Canada in its December report:

Canada’s liquids production in October is estimated to have risen by 122 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), m-o-m, to average 5.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), as oil sands producers finished off maintenance work. Conventional crude production dropped by 21 tb/d, m-o-m, in October to average 1.2 mb/d, while NGL output increased by 42 tb/d to average 1.2 mb/d. Crude bitumen production output rose in October by 56 tb/d, m-o-m, while synthetic crude increased by 45 tb/d, m-o-m. Taken together, crude bitumen and synthetic crude production rose by 101 tb/d to 3.3 mb/d.

 

For 2023, Canada’s liquids production is forecast to increase by about 30 tb/d to average 5.6 mb/d. This is unchanged compared with the previous month’s assessment.

In 3Q23, mining production increased with the completion of turnaround and maintenance activities. Within the large in situ projects, CNRL’s Primrose and Kirby projects had significant production increases as new well pads came online earlier than anticipated. For 2024, Canada’s liquids production is forecast to increase at a much faster pace compared with 2023, rising by 0.2 mb/d to average 5.9 mb/d. Incremental production is expected to come through oil sands project ramp-ups and debottlenecking in areas like Montney, Kearl and Fort Hills, in addition to some conventional field growth.

 

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