An op-ed, short for “opposite the editorial page”, is a written prose piece, which expresses the opinion of an author usually not affiliated with the publication’s editorial board.
This was the state of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at 10:20 p.m. on Thursday, April 9, two days after the ceasefire supposedly opened the strait. MarineTraffic graphic
(Originally posted on LinkedIn on April 8, the day after the ceasefire was announced)
Well…that was an interesting 39 days of people finding out about the Strait of Hormuz…and I am not suggesting anything is over, but what an eye opener as to the fragility of the oil market. It reminds me of opening the kitchen tap and water coming out and then one day it just doesn’t. If this war does not end then demand destruction is the only way to keep prices in check. As an oil producer, that does not feel good and war is never a good thing anyways.
Yesterday I was having a discussion and made the prediction that even if the war ended today the overhang of supply issues and production restart would make for an exceptional 2026 for the producer. Well who knew that we would potentially test this so quickly? So allow me to double down and say that the oil markets were already showing a steady strengthening before the war, and now with an overhang of the issues this will be an exceptional year. I might even be willing to look ahead to continued strength into 2027. The market sure thinks 2027 will remain strong as the futures market thru to the end of 2027 moved slightly downward from this ceasefire….like $0.43 cents down.
It would not be a complete post without again mentioning what a great position we are in as Canadian oil producers (despite our federal mismanagement) selling our oil in US dollars and paying our bills in Canadian dollars. So in my humble opinion keep your foot on the gas and stay aggressive, my friends.
Just my crude thoughts.
Del Mondor is owner of Weyburn-based Aldon Oils.
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