Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
This screenshot from the OPG video announcing it is going ahead with the Darlington New Nuclear project show construction of the first reactor. The circular area is likely the start of the massive hole that will hold the reactor and its containment building. YouTube/OPG
The price for four reactors is almost exactly the same as the entire Saskatchewan budget this year
CLARINGTON, ONTARIO – A major nuclear power announcement was made in Ontario on May 8 that will have a direct impact on Saskatchewan’s plans for nuclear power generation development, especially when it comes to how much it would cost.
Ontario Power Generation announced it is going ahead with the construction of four GE Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactors. While dirt and civil work commenced in late 2022, this is the final go/no go decision point. It’s a go.
The Saskatchewan link is that SaskPower has chosen the same model of reactor for its first small modular reactor (SMR), and that it has signed on to follow Ontario’s lead, if indeed the province of Saskatchewan decides to go forward with building its own SMRs.
The biggest reason why there’s an “if” in that previous sentence is the price. Just how much are these reactors expected to cost? Up until now, the price has been a number that has not been nailed down within the public discourse.
This is what the Province of Ontario’s press release of May 7 had to say about that:
“The government is supporting OPG’s $20.9 billion budget for the Darlington New Nuclear Project, which includes site preparation, engineering and design work to date, as well as the construction of all four small modular reactors.
“The first SMR will cost $6.1 billion, along with costs for systems and services common to all four SMRs of $1.6 billion. Costs are expected to decline with each subsequent unit as efficiencies are gained, similar to the Darlington Refurbishment Project.”
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When SaskPower’s then minister Don Morgan made the initial announcement in the spring of 2022 that Saskatchewan was partnering with OPG on SMRs, he noted the possibility of up to four reactors. Since then the number of reactors hasn’t been nailed down yet. Near the end of his term as minister, Morgan had mused about as many as eight or nine, while Premier Scott Moe since that time has also spoken about the possibility of building large, 1000 megawatt reactors as a possibility. The most clarity provided by government so far is that Saskatchewan is looking at building one, with the caveat that you would usually build more than one, so two reactors is the most likely prospect at this time. And the Estevan area, either on Boundary Dam Reservoir near the regional park, or the north shore of Rafferty Reservoir due south of Macoun, are the prospective sites. Site selection is expected to occur later this year. Indeed, on Tuesday SaskPower held another public display at the local mall regarding site selection.
SaskPower president and CEO Rupen Pandya, left and CIC Minister Don Morgan, in Regina on Sept. 20,, 2023, announcing two possible sites for nuclear power development in Saskatchewan. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
Each 300 megawatt SMR would be comparable in capacity to the Shand Power Station, or Boundary Dam Unit 6, or either of the Poplar River Power Station’s Unit 1 or 2.
As SaskPower has roughly 1,400 megawatts of existing coal-fired power generation, it would need at least four, and closer to five, BWRX-300 reactors to replace coal. But that would simply be replacement, and not provide room for growth in grid demand. And that growth is expected to be substantial. Current Crown Investments Minister and Minister Responsible for SaskPower Jeremy Harrison said at a wind and solar announcement in Regina on May 1, “… We are committed to an all-of-the-above approach at SaskPower. And generating power, we’re going to be seeing what is likely 100 per cent, a doubling of power demand over the next 20 years here in this province, which is a good thing. I mean, it shows it’s because the economy is growing and there’s new projects coming online. But it’s a challenge for SaskPower’s perspective, and that we need to find 4,000 more megawatts of power production and generation. How are we going to do that? It’s all-of-the-above. It’s not either/or, it’s how do we do all of these things. So that means, that means renewables, like this project right here, that means coal, that means gas, that means hydro, that means biomass, of which, again, Meadow Lake Tribal Council have been pioneering the way in that space.”
Asked afterward by Pipeline Online if that also included nuclear, Harrison replied to the affirmative.
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Cost of being first mover
Being the “first mover” with this new design of reactor places substantial risk upon Ontario and Ontario Power Generation, as nuclear projects are notorious for going grossly over-schedule and over-budget. It’s expressly because of those risks the Tennessee Valley Authority and SaskPower and several European power utilities are letting Ontario take the lead in “First-of-a-kind” (FOAK). But the promise of SMRs, according to proponents, is that they should be much easier to build than conventional large-scale reactors. And it has been widely asserted that “Nth-of-a-kind” (NOAK) will be considerably cheaper than the FOAK.
In this case, the numbers released by OPG and Ontario thus far would be:
$20.9 billion – ($6.1 billion FOAK + $1.6 billion common infrastructure) / 3 NOAK reactors = $4.4 billion per additional (NOAK) reactor.
To put that $20.9 billion into perspective, that’s equal to almost exactly the entire 2025-2026 provincial budget, whose total expense is pegged at $21.0 billion. The gross debt for 2026 is budgeted at $38.3 billion.
When Morgan made the initial SMR announcement three years ago, he warned the price could be higher than initially expected. Back in 2022, then-SaskPower Minister Don Morgan said, “A small reactor would cost in the range of $5 billion, so they’re certainly not inexpensive.”
Then-Ontario Energy Minister Todd Smith said, “I’m going to suggest that the $5 billion number is quite high.”
Morgan added, “I would rather use a high figure and have it come in substantially lower than then one where we have to say it’s this much higher or have an overrun in construction. We’ll be watching carefully, as Ontario goes ahead, to make sure that the processes that they follow work well here, and we’re able to they have a significant benefit already. They are already licensed for nuclear facility, we have to go through both provincial and federal licensing requirements. And we want to watch that, as we as we go forward as we watch cost containment.”
Originally the price discussed was much lower. Dr. Chris Keefer, an Ontario physician who is also a leading nuclear advocate, wrote on LinkedIn that the reactor technology that originally claimed a ~$1 billion/unit NOAK cost.
Thus, as the final investment decision has been by OPG and Ontario at a price already close to the upper range, and that’s before the major work begins, and all the cost challenges it may incur, including an ongoing trade war.
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Cost escalation example in Saskatchewan
Additionally, SaskPower’s own experience with building out its fleet of large natural gas-fired combined cycle plants has been alarming. Its construction of large scale, single unit combined cycle natural gas power stations at Swift Current (Chinook), Moose Jaw (Great Plains) and now Lanigan (Aspen). These plants are common, every day, widespread use technology – nothing near the complexity of nuclear. Each plant is essentially a clone of the previous, with some slight changes for Aspen. These are the results SaskPower has had.
Note that according to the 2024 SaskPower annual report, the estimated cost of Aspen, to be in service in 2027-28, is $1.4 to $1.7 billion. Using the average, $1.55 billion, in in these calculations for Aspen, you get the following:
| Chinook | Great Plains | Aspen | |
| In Service | 2019 | 2024 | 2027-2028 |
| Capital Cost | $605 million | $825 million | $1.55 billion |
| Cost escalation from previous facility | 36.4% | 87.9% |
For some reason, Ontario is going to dig a great big tunnel for its four new SMRs. Pipeline Online is trying to determine why. This is the tunnel boring machine meant to do the job. OPG
What’s with the tunnel?
There appears to be one notable difference between the Darlington project and what’s being proposed for Estevan, and that would be a massive six-metre wide tunnel to be constructed by a large tunnel boring machine. From OPG’s website:
“Finally, later this summer, the project’s heralded tunnel boring machine—nicknamed “Harriett Brooks” after Canada’s first female nuclear physicist—will arrive from Germany at the new nuclear site for storage until assembly in early 2026. Once operational, the massive machine will be used to drill the condenser cooling water tunnel, which will measure 3.4 kilometres long and 6.05 metres in diameter.”
Pipeline Online has asked SaskPower if such a tunnel would be required at either Estevan site, and expects to hear back in the near future. To date, Pipeline Online has not seen any reference to a tunnel in any of the numerous open houses and the term “tunnel” does not appear in search results on SaskPower.com.
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Timeline
Notably, OPG’s Aug. 7, 2024 website post about its tunnel boring machine noted, “The first SMR unit is expected to be in commercial operation by the end of 2029, with the rest of the units expected to come online in the mid-2030s.” That’s key, because SaskPower’s own timeline for whether or not to go ahead with its nuclear plans has a decision point in 2029. The intention was to base that decision on Ontario’s experience with operation of its first unit. It’s unclear if SaskPower’s decision point will need to be pushed back if Ontario, as scheduled, will not have its first unit in commercial operation until the end of that year.
This is the current timeline posted on SaskPower’s website for SMR development. SaskPower
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