Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Analyzing just where the NDP’s numbers are coming from, and finding flaws in all five scenarios
The minister’s tour examined Boundary Dam Unit 4, on the left. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
REGINA, ESTEVAN – On a day when the Minister Responsible for SaskPower was touring the work done on the coal-fired Boundary Dam Power Station Unit 4 and the nearby Estevan coal mine, the Saskatchewan NDP was quoting another number, their highest yet, as an estimated cost of the coal refurbishments. But what are those numbers based on?
Further on in this story, Pipeline Online digs into that analysis, and finds the scenarios each to have significant flaws.
On July 27, Pipeline Online accompanied Minister of Crown Investments Corporation and Minister Responsible for SaskPower Jeremy Harrison on that tour. One of the first things he learned just how significant it was that BD4 went back online. Harrison was told by SaskPower executives that bringing back Unit 4 into operation was fortunate, as it turns out the extra 139 megawatts capacity was indeed needed since it came online. Shortfalls of power supplied from Manitoba Hydro was part of the reason.
Meanwhile in Regina, the NDP said in a press release that morning, “A new report published by the right-leaning C.D. Howe Institute puts the true cost of Scott Moe’s catastrophic coal plan at a jaw-dropping $50 billion, a figure nearly double SaskPower’s already eyepopping cost estimate and one that will surely force everyday Saskatchewan people to pay three, even four times more for power.”
The piece in question was entitled The High Cost of Coal-Fired Power as a Bridge to Nuclear, by Brett Dolter, on July 23. It was published by the C.D. Howe Institute as an “intelligence memo.”
Brett Dolter is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Regina specializing in in climate and energy policy research.
(At no point in his piece did Dolter say “$50 billion.” The NDP rounded that number up.)
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Dolter wrote, “I have calculated the electricity rate impacts and resulting emissions of this plan using the refurbishing cost and the timeline for building SMRs from an internal SaskPower briefing note made public in May. Allowing coal-fired plants to operate beyond 2029 would cost $30.2 billion over the next 20 years (in inflation-adjusted dollars). The cumulative cost rises to $46.4 billion were carbon pricing applied under the same values contained in Ottawa’s recent Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta.
On April 13, SaskPower announced it had officially topped out the new Aspen Power Station — placing the last steel beam and completing the main structural build. SaskPower
“I compare this coal transition plan to two other scenarios which the province of Saskatchewan could instead pursue. In the first scenario, SaskPower retires all three coal plants by 2030 and builds four 370-megawatt natural gas combined cycle power plants, 1,200 MW of wind, and 300 MW of solar capacity. The natural gas plants provide dispatchable supply that is comparable to the existing coal-fired plants. Matching this dispatchable capacity with wind and solar capacity reduces the amount of natural gas SaskPower must purchase, which reduces CO2 equivalent emissions and exposure to carbon pricing. This scenario has a cumulative cost of $17.5 billion without carbon pricing and $21.6 billion with carbon pricing applied. Cumulative emissions from this scenario are 40 Mt, a reduction of 119 Mt relative to the SaskPower scenario. Ratepayers save between $608 million to $1 billion per year on average from 2030 to 2050.
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“In the second scenario, SaskPower builds six 250-MW natural gas simple cycle power plants, 1500 MW of wind capacity, and 600 MW of solar capacity. Simple cycle power plants can ramp up and down quickly to respond to changes in load and the supply of wind and solar. They are less fuel efficient but allow higher levels of renewables to be integrated on the Saskatchewan grid, which again reduces natural gas usage and CO2e emissions.”
He continued, “This scenario has a cumulative 2030 to 2050 cost of $15.6 billion without carbon pricing and $20.1 billion with carbon pricing applied. It leads to cumulative emissions of 43 Mt CO2e, which is a reduction of 116 Mt CO2e relative to the coal-to-SMR plan. Ratepayers save between $696 million to $1.1 billion per year on average from 2030 to 2050.
“The Saskatchewan coal-to-SMR plan is the highest cost option for SaskPower to pursue. This conclusion is robust under different cost and natural gas price scenarios, and whether carbon pricing is applied to coal-fired and gas-fired electricity. SaskPower could achieve lower-cost power and reduce Saskatchewan’s cumulative CO2e emissions by adhering to the federal coal-fired regulations and phasing out coal before 2030,” Dolter wrote.
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NDP
The NDP press release of July 27 noted, “The Sask. Party’s continued defense of its coal ‘plan’ defies rational explanation,” said Aleana Young, Shadow Minister for Jobs, Economy & SaskPower. “This gamble started at $900 million, then ballooned to $2.6 billion, then $26 billion, and now independent analysis suggests it could cost as much as $46 billion. Saskatchewan has never seen such a recklessly expensive pet project.”
The release continued, “The report from C.D. Howe Institute concludes Saskatchewan’s strategy of extending coal-fired generation as a bridge to nuclear could cost up to $50 billion if industrial carbon pricing returns. For months and months, the Sask. Party has gone to great lengths to hide documents, ignore submissions from industry, business, and agricultural groups concerned about paying sky-high power rates, and ridiculed journalists when grilled about the catastrophic plan.”
In the press conference, Young said, “The modeling from the C.D. Howe Institute now bears this out while pegging the cost of the government’s plan at a staggering 46 and a half billion dollars. We can toss this plan in the garbage. We can save tens of billions of dollars, generate $33 billion of economic activity, and build a real plan for Saskatchewan’s future.”
She added, “The C.D. Howe Institute has released a report showing that the projected cost for just coal, so just 24 per cent of our generation capacity, could be $46.5 billion.”
Young characterized carbon dioxide as “pollution,” something former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a common talking point. Young said, “We all know there’s only one party in this province who’s pursuing industrial carbon pricing, and that’s the Sask. Party government. Whether it was the Minister of Environment confirming this in committee or the Premier’s comments this spring, that we’ll see where we get with carbon pricing. We didn’t include it because we took the policy environment that exists with the Alberta MOU that’s recently been signed. It is increasingly unlikely that Saskatchewan will continue to be the only jurisdiction with no policy for pollution.”
That $46.5 billion shows up in Dolter’s Scenario 1, which is discussed at length below in the analysis portion of this piece.
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Minster Jeremy Harrison in the operator’s chair of a dragline. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
Minister tours power plant and coal mine
While the NDP were running their press conference, Harrison was inspecting the work done on Boundary Dam Unit 4, then toured the Westmoreland Estevan Mine. He was accompanied by International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 2067 leadership, as well as SaskPower, CIC and Westmoreland executives and management. IBEW represents not only SaskPower workers, but Westmoreland miners at the Poplar River Mine at Coronach.
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During the tour Harrison was able to check out the internals of a dragline that was undergoing maintenance and sit in the operator’s chair. And along the way, he was talking to the coal workers whose jobs and mortgages and ability to pay for their homes would be directly impacted if the coal-fired power industry was to go away in three years, five months and four days from that date.
After the tour, Harrison said, “Reliable, affordable electricity is the foundation of Saskatchewan’s continued growth.
Tyler Holmen, Minister Jeremy Harrison and Ken Hoste. Holmen is business manager of IBEW 2067 while Hoste is assistant business manager.
“Our government has always taken an all-of-the-above approach to meeting Saskatchewan’s energy needs. That means responsibly developing and using the Saskatchewan resources we have today while building toward a future powered by Saskatchewan uranium through the deployment of nuclear energy.
“By using Saskatchewan resources to power Saskatchewan’s future, we are strengthening energy security, supporting good-paying jobs and ensuring our province has the reliable electricity needed for generations to come.
He concluded, “Today’s discussions with the frontline workers and labour leaders who keep the power on in Saskatchewan every day reinforced the importance of the path our government has chosen. These are the men and women who keep Saskatchewan’s electricity system running who have been clear in their support for our government’s plan to strengthen Saskatchewan’s energy security while ensuring we continue to deliver the reliable, affordable power Saskatchewan people depend on.”
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Analysis:
Perhaps the largest issue with Dolter’s report is its practicality. He says, “SaskPower could achieve lower-cost power and reduce Saskatchewan’s cumulative CO2e emissions by adhering to the federal coal-fired regulations and phasing out coal before 2030.”
But beyond the coal refurbishment plan now underway, there is nothing in the works to get replacement power in place built before that date. Remember, the new 370 megawatt natural gas-fired Aspen Power Station is being built at Lanigan, a stone’s throw away from the BHP Jansen potash mine, for a reason. At full build-out, the largest potash mine in the world is anticipated to require 300 megawatts – nearly the entire output of Aspen. So long term, you can’t really consider Aspen a replacement for coal, but rather the primary generator for the expanded demand of our mining sector.
If Dolter’s report were to be followed to the letter and coal were to be shut off on schedule, then the lights would go out for a large portion of Saskatchewan on Jan. 1, 2030. More on that in a bit.
Dragline “Big Lou.”
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Crunching numbers
What are those numbers the NDP are quoting based on?
Here is the spreadsheet Dolter included in the C.D. Howe piece:
First of all, Dolter envisions five scenarios (yes, he labeled the first one as scenario 0, not 1).
- 0. Coal refurbishment, but no nuclear built, nor replacement natural gas, or additional renewables.
- 1. Coal to SMR – which apparently excludes any expansion of renewables
- 2. Gas (combined cycle) plus renewables. This uses a consistent $3.00 per gigajoule price to 2050, and a current $1.7 billion cost per additional natural gas plant. That’s the current price for the Aspen Power Station, but SaskPower has said it anticipates the next plant of that type to cost approximately $2.5 billion a piece. It assumes substantial build out of renewables.
- 3. Gas (combined cycle) plus renewables. This one is in some manners closest to the numbers likely for the future. It assumes the aforementioned $2.5 billion per gas generating station times four stations (but no inflation). It also uses a gas price of $8 per gigajoule, meaning that there would indeed be inflation of gas prices between now and 2050. It assumes substantial build out of renewables.
- 4. Gas (simple cycle). This one assumes six simple cycle natural gas plants and a assumes substantial build out of renewables.
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Looking at the scenarios, several can be rejected on the face of them.
For scenario 0, This scenario is improbable as Saskatchewan has embarked on building nuclear power, as well as expanding its natural gas and renewable portfolios, either internally or through power purchase agreements (“all of the above approach”).
Scenario 0 is based on the assumption that the only thing SaskPower is doing is refurbishing coal. That is simply wrong. In recent weeks sod turnings have taken place at major wind and solar power facilities, each the largest in the province to date, and more are in the works. Planning continues not only on small modular reactors, but also potentially large-scale reactors. So for Scenario 0 to play out, SaskPower would need to drop all work on further wind, solar or nuclear, and that’s not happening.
Scenario 1, with coal to small modular reactors, again does not include the build out of wind and solar, which is ongoing. This is the scenario the NDP highlighted. The cost of coal for the last fiscal year was $313 million. For 20 years, from 2030 to 2050, that would come in at $6.2 billion before inflation. This scenario puts fuel cost for coal and uranium at $11 billion. It should be noted that there would be a cost for uranium for any nuclear power plant, but that cost would be notably lower, which is one of the attractions of nuclear power in the first place.
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This scenario also says the greenhouse gas emissions, with nuclear power, would be equal to the scenario with just coal, at 159 megatonnes of CO2 total for both Scenarios 0 and 1. If that’s the case, then one of those scenarios is using an incorrect figure, as it is highly unlikely a grid which is using nuclear power to replace coal power would be producing an equal amount of greenhouse gases while just coal. As a result, the $46.5 billion number quoted by the NDP becomes suspect, too.
Scenario 2 assumes outdated pricing for additional natural gas plants, at $1.7 billion each, and a consistent, flat natural gas price of the current $3.00 per gigajoule out to 2050 – a highly implausible possibility. And it assumes nothing will happen on the nuclear front.
Scenario 3 is the only one remotely realistic in its pricing of additional natural gas power plants, as well as a natural gas price that recognized likely inflation out to 2050. It includes 1,200 MW of wind, and 300 MW of solar capacity. But there are issues with the carbon pricing on this one as well. This, too, assumes nothing will happen on the nuclear front. This scenario also suggests that four natural gas plants could be built simultaneously, and be online and commissioned within three years, five months and seven days from the time it was posted. That would include site selection, environmental assessment, consultation with First Nations, actual construction and commissioning.
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According to the minister, one of the reasons SaskPower has been building these power plants sequentially is the workforce requirements. According to SaskPower, at peak, Aspen was expected to have 750 workers on site. Dolter’s Scenario 3 conjures up four times that workforce, starting today, to get those power plants online for 2030, when, under that scenario, all conventional coal is shut down.
The Aspen Power Station is now 50 per cent complete, as of Nov. 6. Photo courtesy SaskPower/X
Additionally, Harrison has said on several occasions the order time now for a combined cycle natural gas turbine is now seven years. So even if four were ordered today, that would put completion and commissioning of these four theoretical plants well into the 2030s. If coal was shut down on Dec. 31, 2029, then there would be a several year gap between coal shutting down and additional natural gas coming online. So even if his projected wind and solar were built before 2030, there would be many dark, cold nights when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining while coal plants sit idle and natural gas plants aren’t completed and the people of Saskatchewan literally freeze in the dark.
Dolter’s last scenario, No. 4, would see “SaskPower builds six 250-MW natural gas simple cycle power plants, 1500 MW of wind capacity, and 600 MW of solar capacity.” This one dramatically increases reliance on solar. On clear summer days, in Alberta, solar does indeed often high 90 per cent output during the daytime. But in the winter, that number is closer to 30 per cent, for far fewer hours. And wind, of course, is highly variable as well. Seeing 70+ per cent output compared to nameplate capacity for wind is exceptionally rare in Alberta. This scenario assumes that simple cycle plants can be built for $680 million each, $4.1 billion for six plants. If you use current costs of wind and solar farms in Saskatchewan, you’re looking at approximately $500 million per 200 megawatt wind farm, that’s another $3.75 billion, and a further $1.2 billion for six 100 megawatt solar farms. That’s $9.1 billion in capital costs.
But this scenario inexplicably assumes there will be no inflation of gas costs, which is odd, because the previous scenario does indeed include inflation for natural gas price. So there is no consistency in his approach here.
And thus, each of the five scenarios laid out in Dolter’s case have significant issues.
A coal hauler on July 27.
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Carbon pricing
Several other things stand out:
The big number that grabs eye is the $48.5 billion Dolter says would be the “Total cost with federal carbon pricing” under scenario 0 which sees coal refurbishment and “Costs with carbon pricing if OBPS set to 0 tonnes per gigawatt-hour 2031-2050.”
The majority of that $48.5 billion is the $28.5 billion in carbon pricing Dolter has calculated.
Scenario 1, which the NDP quoted, is the coal to small modular reactors scenario with no renewables. Dolter calculated its cost at $46.4 billion, of which carbon pricing is $16.2 billion. In the same grid of scenarios, Dolter’s Scenario 3, building four natural gas plants to replace the coal fleet suggests a carbon pricing of $4.1 billion over the same time period. His scenario 4 puts carbon pricing at $4.5 billion over 20 years.
Combined cycle natural gas plants in general produce roughly half the carbon dioxide emissions of conventional coal, whereas simple cycle natural gas produces more than half. So all things being equal, if Dolter’s replacement of coal with an equivalent amount of natural gas production holds, then the carbon tax should be half of what he calculated the coal to be. That would be $14.25 billion, not the $4.1 billion included in the chart. But that doesn’t include the large build out of wind and solar Dolter’s Scenarios 3 and 4 lay out.
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These scenarios includes much more wind and solar. Clearly, it anticipates wind and solar would be producing the vast bulk of the nameplate capacity of 1,500 megawatts in question and the natural gas plants would hardly be running at all. Pipeline Online’s extensive monitoring and coverage of the Alberta Electric System Operator and the performance of wind and solar indicate that to get that sort of output on a regular basis, the buildout of wind and solar would need to be much greater than the scale Dolter projects.
As it stands right now, a 200 megawatt nameplate capacity wind farm goes for about $450 million (Rose Valley, just announced) to over $500 million (Seven Stars), and SaskPower’s data shows over a year the output expected is closer to 39 percent of nameplate over the course of the year.
If you were to average 780 megawatts from wind (roughly what coal output has been until recently), you would need 10 of those 200 megawatt wind farms, averaging $500 million each, plus the four gas plants to back them up. That’s not counting solar, which does not run at night. And if you expected much more from wind and solar, more than 780 megawatts, you’d need an even larger buildout than just 10 wind farms, to expect such a large reduction in carbon pricing expenditures.
A D10 pushed coal into the hopper to feed the power plant.
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Carbon pricing, part 2
A huge factor in Dolter’s analysis is carbon pricing. And while the provincial government no longer charges a carbon tax to consumers on power generation, yes, it does still apply the Saskatchewan version of the Output Based Pricing System (OBPS). The difference between it and the federal system is that the money stays within the province. Here’s how the SaskPower 2025-26 annual report of late June put it:
“For the 2025 calendar year, SaskPower recognized $354 million in OBPS expense. During 2025-26, the Government of Saskatchewan, through the Ministry of Environment, provided $175 million in CETG funding to SaskPower for use toward eligible initiatives, including clean electricity power purchase agreements; customer clean electricity and demand side management programs; importing renewable power: and costs associated with the development of nuclear small modular reactors. The $175 million of CETG funding received was applied to both fuel and purchased power and operating costs.”
And
“SaskPower also received a $187 million grant from CIC. This grand was provided under the direction of the Province of Saskatchewan to support rate affordability for customers in 2025-26.”
Add up the CETG funding and CIC grant and you get $362 million, almost exactly the charge of the $354 million in carbon pricing, or OBPS.
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In other words, money paid by SaskPower for carbon pricing can and is used for paying for “clean electricity power” as well as developing nuclear power. So in any scenario where OBPS is included, that money will essentially go to developing the power generation so desperately sought by the critics – non-emitting power. If you want to know where a good chunk of the money for new reactors may be coming from, this is the first place to look.
Thus, the same dollars are counted twice in Dolter’s scenarios – once as a “carbon price” and again as “capital + O&M” to build reactors or other “clean electricity power,” which would presumably include the wind and solar he outlines. His scenarios imply that any money sent to “carbon pricing” would not then be turned around and used to pay for the capital costs of nuclear, or wind or solar.
And then there’s the issue of sending money to Alberta for natural gas, versus using our own, domestically produced coal. According the minister, around 90 per cent of the gas used by SaskPower’s generating stations comes from Alberta, while 100 per cent of the coal comes from Saskatchewan. So in any calculation of fuel costs, one must consider that nearly all money spent on natural gas as a fuel source leave the province, whereas nearly all money spent on coal remains in Saskatchewan. Yes, Westmoreland does take profits from the current $313 million SaskPower spends on coal. But the vast majority of that money stays in Saskatchewan, from employee salaries to maintenance of equipment, local suppliers and more, supporting hundreds of direct mining jobs in Estevan, Bienfait and Coronach, as well as hundreds more in the power plants.
In conclusion, each of the scenarios Dolter lays out have significant flaws. And those scenarios are what the NDP are now basing their most recent claims coal refurbishment will cost.
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