Kaase Gbakon: Venezuela by the Numbers: What 60 Years of Energy Data Reveal About Its Future

Jan 16, 2026

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Hello and Welcome to another edition of the Energy Business Analytics Newsletter. In this edition, we examine Venezuela’s energy sector performance against the backdrop of the U.S.’s military operation intended to open the way to rebuild the country’s oil infrastructure as a component of the U.S.’s dominance of the Western Hemisphere.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Venezuela’s oil output has fallen to 960 kbpd (2024), just 27% of its 1965 level and 1% of current global production, despite holding 19% of global proved reserves – a structural disconnect decades in the making.
  • Refining utilization has collapsed to 18%, forcing a 76% decline in domestic fuel consumption thus undermining domestic fuel security, crippling the economy and daily life.
  • Venezuela’s export profile has narrowed dramatically: from a diversified oil and refined product exporter to a crude-only supplier. Export value cratered from $95B (2012) to $7.6B (2023).
  • Gasoline demand fell 69%, LPG (cooking gas) fell 86%, and total energy use dropped 47% from its 2012 peak, mirroring the citizens’ drop in quality of life.
  • Natural gas – often ignored in geopolitical commentary – represents a strategic underutilized asset with implications for oil recovery and power supply.
  • Any Venezuelan “reset” will hinge less on reserves and more on infrastructure, refining, gas monetization, and domestic energy demand recovery – a multi-year, capital-intensive endeavour fraught with political and technical risk.

 

Why Venezuela’s Energy System Matters Again

On January 3, 2026, the U. S. conducted a military operation in Venezuela lasting 150 minutes that had been months in planning. The president of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro and wife Cilia Flores were taken and brought to the United States to face trial on four charges including, narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine-guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine-guns and destructive devices. Even as the U. S. administration has justified its action based on “narcotics,” it has also made clear that it had its eye on Venezuela’s natural resources – specifically Venezuela’s oil and its electricity grid (to support increase in oil production). President Trump reportedly used the word “oil” twenty-six times in his press conference as per conference transcripts . Take this quote from the President, for example…

 

“We’re gonna rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars. It’ll be paid for by the oil companies directly. Uh, they will, uh, be reimbursed for what they’re doing. But, uh, that’s gonna be paid. And we’re gonna get the oil flowing the way it should be. As you know, it was just a minor flow. It was actually a minor flow for what they have. Uh, but we’re gonna run it properly, and we’re gonna make sure the people of Venezuela are taken care of…”

The President responded to a question on [the US] running a country in South America by underscoring the strategic interest the US has in Venezuela’s energy resources as a component of American dominance in the Western hemisphere:

“…I think it is because we wanna surround ourself with good neighbors…with stability…with energy. We have tremendous energy in that country. It’s very important that we protect it. We need that for ourselves. We need that for the world, and we wanna make sure we can protect it.”

The centrality of oil to the US action cannot be missed even as analysts apply geopolitical, diplomatic, strategic, historic, economic, and legal dimensions to weigh the impact on energy markets.

While the assessments continue, and the after-effects of the pre-dawn military incursion unravel, this note will provide backdrop of Venezuela’s energy system.

Let’s dive in!

Oil Riches, Production Collapse: The Orinoco+ Paradox

Most of Venezuela’s oil production and reserves are in the Orinoco belt – an area of 55,314 square-km estimated to hold ~ 2 trillion barrels of heavy and extra-heavy oil-in-place according to a United States Geological Survey (USGC) 2009 report. Located to the north of the Orinoco River (which is the world’s third largest), the belt stretches across central Venezuela over five states. This belt was divided into four blocks Boyacá, Junín, Ayacucho, and Carabobo as seen in the Figure 1.

 

Figure 1: Map of Venezuela showing the Orinoco Belt divided into four blocks Boyacá, Junín, Ayacucho, and Carabobo [Source: The Future of Venezuela’s Oil Industry]

 

These blocks were farmed out as follows:

  • ConocoPhillips (Boyacá),
  • Sincor an alliance of Total and Statoil (Junín),
  • Ameriven (Ayacucho)
  • ExxonMobil (Carabobo)

While the Orinoco system is associated with the production of heavy (< 22°API) and extra heavy oils (< 10°API), there are also reserves of light and medium crude (API gravities between 22°API and 38°API). Crudes such as El Furrial (25° – 30°API), Jusepín (28° – 32.3°API), Mesa (30.5°API), Maporal (22.4° – 29.4°API), and El Carito (21° – 32.3°API).

Table 1 shows characteristics of some crude types produced from Venezuela.

 

Characteristics of Select Venezuelan Crude Oil Blends
Attribute Merey Tia Juana Light Morichal Bachaquero-13
API Gravity (°API) 16 31.9 12.2 12.2
Sulphur (wt%) 2.45 1.18 2.78 2.8
Viscosity cSt @100F 513 8.8 145 48.6
Vanadium ppm 262 96 274 442
TAN mgKOH/g 0.69 0.22 2.83 3.13
Pour Point °C -20 -29 45 -18
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Compiled from Publicly Available Sources

Table 1: Characteristics of some Venezuelan crude oil blends

Although, the Orinoco belt loom large in the narrative of Venezuela’s oil wealth, there is also the Maracaibo Basin. It is found in the northwestern corner of the country and stretches over 36,657 square-km, estimated to have produced over 30 billion bbl of oil with an estimated 44 billion bbl yet to be recovered.

It is estimated that this basin accounts for over 50% of Venezuela’s crude export capacity. One of the world’s largest oil refinery complexes, the Paraguaná Refinery Complex is located over this region.

Venezuela was one of the five founding members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) back in 1960 along with Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

Given this association, let’s look at how its production and reserves have trended compared to OPEC and the world since then.

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Crude Oil Production: From Global Supplier to Marginal Producer

In 2024, the country produced a total of 960 kbpd of oil. This ranked it 21st globally and represented 3% of OPEC’s overall production of 33 MMbpd and 1% of global production. While OPEC’s production overall has grown an average of 1% per annum since 1965, Venezuela’s has declined by an average of 2% per annum since 1965 as per Table 2.

Oil Production [kbpd]
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2024 CAGR
Venezuela 3,503 2,422 1,744 2,959 3,302 960 -2%
OPEC 13,687 25,675 15,212 26,020 32,920 32,798 1%
World 31,792 55,811 57,345 67,841 81,824 96,890 2%
Venezuela’s Prod as Pct of OPEC
26% 9% 11% 11% 10% 3%
Venezuela’s Prod as Pct of World
11% 4% 3% 4% 4% 1%
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon/

Based on data from OPEC

Table 2: Venezuela’s oil production in 1965 was more than a quarter of OPEC total, but currently represents 3% of OPEC’s total production.

 

The figure below shows the trend of the country’s production compared to OPEC and the global production relative to 1965. Today, the world produces three-times as much oil as it did in 1965, while OPEC’s production is 2.4-times its 1965 level of 13.7 MMbpd.

Figure 2: Different production outcomes: Venezuela’s current production is 27% of what it was in 1965

While supplies from other producers increased to satisfy global thirst for oil which had tripled since 1965, Venezuela’s production declined such that by 2024, the country’s production was only 27% what it had been in 1965. This starkly shows the loss of market share Venezuela has suffered since it peaked in 1970 at 3.75 MMbpd.

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Crude Oil Trade: How Venezuela Lost its Global Market Share

Historically, the country has been an important supplier of oil on the world market, exporting up to 62% of its production in 1995. Although, as its production declined, so did its exports volumes. However, these declining export volumes made up an increasing share of its production as illustrated in Table 3.

 

Venezuela’s Oil Export – Production Dynamic
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2024
Oil Production [kbpd]
Venezuela 3,503 2,422 1,744 2,959 3,302 960
OPEC 13,687 25,675 15,212 26,020 32,920 32,798
World 31,792 55,811 57,345 67,841 81,824 96,890
Oil Exports [kbpd]
Venezuela N/A N/A 826 1,820 2,198 656
OPEC N/A N/A 9,858 17,551 22,478 19,008
World N/A N/A 23,275 33,123 42,414 43,239
Venezuela’s Export as a Pct of OPEC Export [%]
N/A N/A 8% 10% 10% 3%
Venezuela’s Export as a Pct of World Export [%]
N/A N/A 4% 5% 5% 2%
Export – Production Ratio [%]
Venezuela N/A N/A 47% 62% 67% 68%
OPEC N/A N/A 65% 67% 68% 58%
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Based on data from OPEC

N/A: Not Available; Export data not available prior to 1980

Table 3: Oil Exports vs Production: an increasing share of Venezuela’s oil is headed to export, even as OPEC’s share of production to export declines

 

In 1998 when Venezuela’s production reached 3.45 MMbpd (the highest it had been since 1985), it exported 65% of this production which accounted for 6% of all oil exports globally and 11% of all exports from OPEC member countries.

The potential for a return of Venezuela’s exports to the world market is a source of the current excitement. The graphic from Rory Johnston of Commodity Context depicts the destination of Venezuelan crude oil between 2017 and 2020. Although it is focused on a relatively short window, it shows that China and India have been the significant markets for Venezuelan crude, especially after the US imposed sanctions on Venezuelan state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) in January 2019.

 

Figure 3: Venezuelan crude oil export destination dominated by China and India after 2018 [Source: Rory Johnston Commodity Context]

Before 2019, however (the months of 2017 and 2018), the United States and Caribbean region were the dominant destinations of Venezuelan oil exports.

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Juxtaposing the foregoing against the graphic of crude oil export value from Observatory of Economic Complexity, you can see that the country’s crude oil exports declined in value from $27.8B in 2018 to $4.05B in 2023.

Figure 4: 52% of Venezuela’s oil export value in 2018 was from exports to India and China while 85% of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2023 were from the US [Source: Observatory for Economic Complexity]

Consistent with the graphic in Figure 3, ~ 40% of the $27.8B of Venezuela’s oil exports in 2018 were to the U.S., while 52% went to Asia (China and India). However, in 2023 the value of oil exports had fallen by 85% from their 2018 level to $4.05B of which $3.46B went to the US and $0.586B found its way to Spain.

In 2024, $9.85B worth of crude oil was exported from Venezuela, an estimated 40% of which was destined to China, while 35% went to the United States. The resumption of crude oil exports to the US in January 2023 followed waivers granted to Chevron to resume exporting crude oil from its Venezuela operations to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries.

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Crude Oil Reserves: The World’s Largest Oil Prize

As of 2024, Venezuela had 303 billion bbls of proved reserves, ranking it the leading holder of oil reserves on the globe. Its reserves grew at an estimated 5% per annum since 1965, compared to OPEC and world reserves which had both grown at parity – 3% per annum.

Over the period between 1965 and 2024, Venezuela’s share of OPEC reserves grew from 7% to 24% while its share of global reserves stood at 19% (2024) compared to 5% in 1965.

 

Oil Reserves [Billion bbls]
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2024 CAGR
Venezuela 17 18 54 66 80 303 5%
OPEC 248 444 523 780 891 1,241 3%
World 354 637 758 1,019 1,202 1,567 3%
Venezuela’s Reserves as Pct of OPEC
7% 4% 10% 9% 9% 24%
Venezuela’s Reserves as Pct of World
5% 3% 7% 7% 7% 19%
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Based on data from OPEC

Table 4: Venezuela’s reserves have grown 5% pa since 1965, increasing its global share from 5% [1965] to 19% [2024]

As depicted in Figure 5, OPEC and World reserves are currently 5-times and 4.4-times respectively their values in 1965, Venezuela’s are at ~ 18-times. This shows the significance of the country’s reserve volumes to the potential to satisfy overall global oil demand.

Figure 5: Growth in Reserves: Venezuela’s current oil reserves are 18-times what they were in 1965

 

Since 1985, Venezuela’s reserves have grown faster than OPEC and tripled between 2007 and 2010 from 99.4 billion bbls to ~300 billion bbls.

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Refining Without Feedstock: The Collapse of Venezuela’s Downstream System

The country currently possesses 1.46 MMbpd of refining capacity, of which only 18% is currently utilized. Only the 5 kbpd San Roque, refinery is located inland (Anzoategui), while the bulk of refining capacity is located by the coast.

This critical component of the country’s energy complex is tied to the performance of its upstream. Table 5 shows the list of refineries and their location.

Refinery Operator Nameplate crude oil distillation capacity (thousand b/d) Location
Centro de Refinacion Paraguana PdVSA 940 Amuay and Cardon, Falcon
Refineria Puerto la Cruz 310 Puerto de la Cruz, Anzoategui
Refineria El Palito 187 Puerto Cabello, Carabobo
Refineria Bajo Grande 16 Bajo Grande, Zulia
Refineria San Roque 5 San Roque, Anzoategui
Total 1,458
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PdVSA is Petroleos de Venezuela SA, Venezuela’s National Oil Company

Compiled based on data from EIA and the Oil and Gas Journal

Table 5: Venezuela’s refinery assets [Source: EIA and Oil and Gas Journal]

 

As production declined, refinery throughput also cratered especially from 2000 when utilization was at 85% to 18% as of 2024. This is below the aggregate seen for OPEC (63% in 2024) and globally (82% in 2024).

 

Venezuela’s Refinery Utilization Has Fallen to 18% – Less Than One-Third of the OPEC Average
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2024
Venezuela 72% 86% 85% 74% 12% 18%
OPEC 62% 78% 81% 78% 58% 63%
World 70% 78% 82% 83% 77% 82%
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Table 6: Refinery capacity utilization in Venezuela has declined to 18% in 2024, far below OPEC average of 63%

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Before 2014, refinery utilization averaged ~80% compared to 35% post-2014.

Figure 6: As Venezuela’s refining capacity throughput decreased, an increasing share of declining oil production was destined for export.

As upstream oil production declined, Venezuela’s share of oil export increased from 47% [2004] to 68% [2024], while at the same time refining throughput declined. The effect of this decline in throughput was seen in a decline in domestic production of refined products and consequently of refined product exports.

Refined product Trade: From Caribbean Supplier to Residual Exporter

Historically, Venezuela has been a significant exporter of refined petroleum products. In 1999, it exported 90% of its domestic production of 1.01 MMbpd of refined products – its highest share of refined products exports since 1980. The domestic refineries at their production plateau between 2010 and 2014, produced an average 1.41 MMbpd of refined products, of which 46% went to export. However refined product exports declined from 2014 to 2021 as seen in Figure 7.

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Figure 7: Dynamic of refined product trade in Venezuela: exports declined as domestic production fell

This decline in refined product export is evidenced by data from OEC showing that Venezuela exported $4.5B worth of refined products in 2018 which had declined to $27.4MM in 2023 (~1000% decline in 5 years)!

 

Figure 8: Venezuela’s refined product export declined from $4.5B [2018] to $27.4MM [2023]

As of 2018, 80% of the Venezuela’s refined product exports was destined for the United States (48%) and Caribbean countries (32%). Venezuela’s refined products also reached Asian markets, as Singapore received 17% of Venezuela’s refined product export and China received $67MM worth of refined product (1.5% of Venezuela’s refined product export market).

By 2023, Venezuela’s refined product exports had shrunk both in volume and portfolio composition. Exports destination was dominated by Dominica ($10.4MM) and Guyana ($16.9MM) which both accounted for near 100% of Venezuela’s diminished refined product exports.

While its exports declined, refined product imports also diminished in volume and value. In 2018, imports peaked at 245 kbpd complemented by domestic production of 804 kbpd. By 2023, imports had declined to 80 kbpd. This change is evidenced by the chart in Figure 9 below.

 

 

Figure 9: Venezuela’s refined product import declined from $4.48B [2018] to $666MM [2023] with United States as leading refined product supplier

More than 90% of refined imports in 2018 were sourced from the United States. By 2023, 72% of the $666MM worth of imports came from the US. Notably too, Venezuela had a more diversified basket of refined product suppliers, albeit at reduced volume.

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Domestic Demand for Refined Product

While domestic production of refined products declined, the demand for refined products also declined precipitously. This collapse in refined product demand followed the economic pressure under which the country operated.

From a peak consumption of 840 kbpd in 2012 to 203 kbpd in 2023, refined product consumption fell by 76% in the space of a decade.

Volume and Share of Refined Products Consumed by Type in Venezuela
  2012 2018 2023 % Ch’nge
Refined Products Consumed by Type [kbpd]
Motor gasoline 293.00 190.53 91.72 -69%
Jet fuel 13.00 9.39 5.73 -56%
Kerosene 1.00 1.06 1.16 16%
Distillate fuel oil 227.00 160.65 63.05 -72%
Residual fuel oil 100.00 24.98 9.30 -91%
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 113.00 68.00 15.82 -86%
Other petroleum liquids 93.58 126.00 16.14 -83%
Total [kbpd] 840.58 580.61 202.93 -76%
Share of Refined Products Consumed by Type [%]
Motor gasoline 34.86% 32.82% 45.20%
Jet fuel 1.55% 1.62% 2.83%
Kerosene 0.12% 0.18% 0.57%
Distillate fuel oil 27.01% 27.67% 31.07%
Residual fuel oil 11.90% 4.30% 4.58%
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 13.44% 11.71% 7.80%
Other petroleum liquids 11.13% 21.70% 7.96%
Total [%] 100% 100% 100%
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon/

Compiled based on data from the U. S. Energy Information Administration

Pct Change is between 2012 vs 2023

Table 7: Profile of refined product consumption by type in Venezuela between 2012 and 2023

 

Although the demand for refined products overall declined precipitously from 2012, the demand was dominated by gasoline and diesel (distillate fuel oil) which represented 60% of demand in 2012 and 76% in 2023. The volume of LPG consumed decreased by 86% from 94 kbpd (11% share of product demand in 2012) to 16 kbpd (~ 8% share of product demand in 2023). It’s noteworthy that the only product which demand increased was kerosene – by 16% from 1 kbpd to 1.16 kbpd.

These sharp declines in liquids fuel consumption in Venezuela give a hint as to the change in lifestyle and daily experiences of the citizenry. For example in this 2020 report, Aljazeera reports on a policy of gas rationing following fuel price hikes and fuel queues. In 2017, France 24 announced that “Venezuela becoming pariah for airlines” as airlines withdrew their services arising from reduced demand and unpaid debts. The Caracas Chronicle in a 2020 drew attention to cooking gas shortages.

While Table 7, paints the stark fall in fuels consumption, the decline was a part of the broader decline in energy consumed across the economy which declined from by 47% from its peak of 500 MMBOE (3.06 EJ) in 2012 to 266 MMBOE (1.63 EJ) in 2023.

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Gas: The Overlooked Half of Venezuela’s Energy Story

Although the majority of the country’s natural gas reserves are associated with crude oil, tracking the production data back to 1965, reveals that Venezuela’s gas production trajectory has been different from that of its oil production.

Gas Production: The Forgotten Decline

As per Figure 10, while oil production fell from its 1970 peak of 3.75 MMbpd to 1.68 MMbpd in 1985 and further recovered to continue its upward climb to 3.45 MMbpd in 1998, gas production steadily rose from 745 MMscf/d (1970) to peak at 3.07 Bcf/d in 2001.

 

 

 

Figure 10: Although Venezuela’s oil and gas production have different trajectories, oil peaked (again) in 1998 and gas in 2001. It’s been 20 years of decline since then.

From this peak, gas production commenced slow decade of decline to settle at 1.8 Bcf/d in 2009 before its recovery to 2.9 Bcf/d in 2017 and then further decline to settle at 2.18 Bcf/d in 2023.

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Table 8 shows how the country’s gas production has compared to OPEC and globally. In 1965, Venezuela’s gas production accounted for more than 50% of OPEC’s gas production. This share has diminished to 3% in 2024.

 

Gas Production [Bcf/d]
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2024 CAGR
Venezuela 0.680 1.057 1.675 2.437 2.267 2.184 2%
OPEC 1.306 5.070 10.507 19.948 35.365 63.893 7%
World 65.746 119.587 163.782 209.518 272.214 414.649 3%
Venezuela’s Prod as Pct of OPEC
52% 21% 16% 12% 6% 3%
Venezuela’s Prod as Pct of World
1.03% 0.88% 1.02% 1.16% 0.83% 0.53%
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon/

CAGR is the growth rate between 1965 and 2024

Table 8: Venezuela’s share of OPEC gas production declines from 52% [1965] to 3% [2024], even as OPEC gas production grew at 7% pa

Although Venezuela’s gas production was on an upward trajectory between 1965 and 2001, its share of OPEC gas production was shrinking rapidly due to the aggressive rise of gas production from the other OPEC members. While OPEC’s gas production has grown at 7% per annum between 1965 and 2024, Venezuela’s has been less than half this rate at 2% per annum. Globally gas production has grown at 3% per annum.

This divergence in gas production growth rates is graphically illustrated in Figure 11 where OPEC’s gas production today is ~50-times what it was in 1965.

Figure 11: OPEC’s gas production is currently 50-times its production 6-decades ago; Venezuela’s gas production declined but still 3-times higher than in 1965

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Gas Reserves: Plenty Gas, Little Monetization

Venezuela’s reserves at 195 Tcf (2024) account for 7% of OPEC gas reserves and ~ 3% of global gas reserves. Recall that on the oil side, Venezuela’s reserves represent 19% of the global total.

Gas Reserves [Tcf]
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2024 CAGR
Venezuela 30 41 61 144 152 195 3%
OPEC 315 742 1,053 1,705 2,154 2,631 4%
World 883 2,315 3,500 4,968 6,043 7,377 4%
Venezuela’s Reserves as Pct of OPEC
10% 6% 6% 8% 7% 7%
Venezuela’s Reserves as Pct of World
3.40% 1.79% 1.75% 2.89% 2.52% 2.64%
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon/

CAGR is the growth rate between 1965 and 2024

Table 9: Gas reserves profile; Venezuela accounts for ~ 3% of global gas reserves – far lower share than global oil reserves at 19%

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By indexing to 1965, we compare the gas reserves change since 1965 of Venezuela, OPEC and the world. OPEC and world reserves have grown at the same rate (4% per annum between 1965 and 2024), and consequently their current reserves are at ~ 8.4-times their respective reserve positions in 1965.

 

Figure 12: OPEC and world gas reserves have grown at parity rate of 4% per annum since 1965; Venezuela lagged this growth rate at 3% per annum

Venezuela’s gas reserves having grown at a slightly lower pace than the global average are currently 6.5-times higher than the reserves were in 1965. This compares to oil reserves, which currently is about 18-times its reserve size in 1965. Venezuela’s natural gas reserves are still underutilized, and a large portion of the country’s current natural gas output is used for enhanced oil recovery rather directly monetized.

The picture painted shows an oil and gas sector that has contributed significantly to global energy supply but has since scaled back. Next, we turn attention to the country’s economic trajectory over this period.

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Oil, Trade, and the Rise-and-Fall of an Economy

Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy has come under tremendous pressure arising from a combination of sanctions, and mismanagement resulting in the decline in its per capita GDP since its 2012 peak of $12,607/person. Figure 13 depicts how Venezuela’s per capita has trended in comparison with OPEC and global average.

In the twenty years between 1965 and 1985, the country enjoyed a GDP per capita which was higher than both OPEC and the global average. By 1981, it had peaked at ~$5,000/person which was triple the OPEC average and double the global average. Paradoxically, this period, also coincided with when its oil production declined from 3.5 MMbpd (1965) to 1.69 MMbpd (1985).

However, between 1986 and 2007, the country’s GDP per capita increased – lower than global average but higher than OPEC – and peaked at $12,607/person in 2012. Post – 2012, the country’s GDP per capita declined to a trough of $1,509/person in 2020. As of 2024, the country’s GDP per capita recovered to $4,218/person – still 67% lower than its 2012 peak, and 16% lower than OPEC average.

 

Figure 13: The rise and fall of Venezuela’s GDP per capita

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Evidence of Venezuela’s declining economic fortunes is noted in comparing the value of its exports in 2012, 2018 and 2023. In 2012, the year its per capita GDP peaked, Venezuela’s exports were valued at $95.03B. By 2018, this export value had dropped by 60% to $37.6B worth of goods, $27.8B (74%) of which was derived from the export of crude oil and $4.05B (12%) from refined petroleum.

 

 

Figure 14: Venezuela’s Trade in 2018 was $37.6B, of which $27.8B was crude oil traded with Asia and North America

Further, 36% of Venezuela’s exports went to The United States ($13.5B), and 20% each to China ($7.43B) and India ($7.43B) – These three countries accounted for more than three-quarters of Venezuela’s exports trade in 2018.

In 2023, value of exports had shrunk to $7.63B, with crude oil as the dominant export product – 53% of all exports. Other product categories increased their share of export earnings such as metals, which export value of $1.03B made up 25% of export value in 2023 compared to an export value of $0.55B in 2018 (representing 1.47% of 2018 export).

 

Figure 15: Venezuela’s export trade value in 2023 declined to $7.6B, of which $4.05B was due to crude oil

Chemical productis another product category; its export value of $0.75B in 2018, accounted for 2% of total exports in 2018, but in 2023 its value of $0.76B made up 10% of total export value.

In 2024, Venezuela’s total exports had nearly doubled from $7.63B to $14.05B, of which 70% was due to oil exports.

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Energy Consumption and the Economy

The downward pressure on Venezuela’s economy as measured by its GDP per capita was accompanied by a decrease in its energy consumption. As you will recall, GDP per capita peaked in 2012 at $12,607/person and has trended downward since then. It is this same time window within which the downward trend in fuels consumption is seen (Table 7).

GDP per capita in 2023 of $3,617/person was 33% of its value in 2010 – it had fallen by 67% from 2010. Refined products consumed per capita was in 2023 at 4.67 bbls/person was 49% of its level in 2010. Electricity consumption per capita in 2023 at ~ 2,000 kWh/person was 64% of its value in 2010.

Overall, the total energy consumed per capita was 9.39 MMBOE/person in 2023 – a level which was only 60% of what it was in 2010. Figure 16 captures this reality.

 

 

Figure 16: As Venezuela’s per capita GDP fell, citizens’ energy consumption also declined impacting quality of life

It is this decline in the electricity consumption, which is referenced in the United States Department of Energy fact sheet which is found here. The document acknowledges the importance of the electricity grid to increase “… oil production, economic opportunity, and the daily quality of life for the Venezuelan people.”

Trends in Venezuela’s Economy-Energy Demand
Units 2010 2012 2015 2020 2023 CAGR
GDP per Capita $/person 11,046 12,607 4,103 1,506 3,617 -11%
Per capita consumption of different energy forms
RPP bbls/person 9.58 10.53 8.50 2.95 4.67 -7%
Electricity kWh/person 3,138 3,480 2,817 1,933 1,996 -5%
Total Energy MMBOE/person 15.72 16.94 14.80 8.09 9.39 -5%
https://www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon/

CAGR is the growth rate is calculated between 2012 and 2023

RPP is Refined Petroleum Product

Table 10:  Between 2012 and 2023, GDP per capita fell by 11% per annum, accompanied by 5% per annum drop in per capita electricity consumption.

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The “Venezuelan Reset”: A Daunting Roadmap for Energy Revival

There is still a lot to unpack on the implications of the US action in Venezuela. Questions surrounding the prospect of restoring oil production to the range of between 2 MMbpd and 3 MMbpd are top of mind. This is understandable, given the country’s oil production history and reserve size, the consequence of such production surge on the country’s economy and the wider import of such increased supply on global energy markets.

The data presents a sobering baseline. The path from 1% to 5% global producer calls for a total system reboot. Even as upstream oil revival takes up attention, it is but one item on a list, each of which is a multi-billion-dollar challenge:

  1. Upstream Rejuvenation: Attracting capital and expertise to reverse a long running production decline.
  2. Refining Resurrection: Restoring operations in a 1.46 MMbpd refining system that is 82% idle, requires massive investment and technical overhaul.
  3. Demand Recovery: Rebuilding an economic engine capable of restoring the 76% of fuel demand that vanished – a prerequisite for social stability.
  4. Gas Monetization: Developing a strategy for 195 Tcf of stranded gas, moving beyond its current use for oil recovery and elevating it as a strategic resource.

The road ahead to a “Venezuelan Reset” will be rocky, slow and must be delicately executed. Getting it right will be dependent on an alignment especially of political, social, legal, and economic forces. It is still early days, and not entirely clear how things will unravel; however, what is clear is that how this “Venezuelan Reset” is handled will anchor future energy decisions, its effect will ripple across generations.

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    0002 gilliss casing services
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