Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
A sailor assigned to the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer signals a Marine Corps F-35B Lighting II, a stealth strike fighter aircraft, assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 122, 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, to take off during flight operations in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, July 17, 2026. US Department of War/Central Command. Marine Corps Sgt. Trent A. Henry
As I write this, we are now 143 days into the US-Israel war on Iran and many of the more dire predictions about the war’s impact on oil prices, supply and the global economy have so far proven to be wrong.
This is an amazing state of affairs given that so many serious people, including analysts from the conventional energy sector, expected more mayhem from what was billed as “the greatest oil crisis in history.”
No worries, there are prominent pundits who recommend patience for those people who look forward to the next apocalypse. Geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan argues that forecasts about extreme impacts weren’t wrong—they were just premature. The more drastic consequences predicted may not have shown up yet but we can expect them to appear sometime later this summer.
It turns out there is a whole litany of explanations for why crude prices have failed to rise to the levels required to throw us into a global economic meltdown. But that doesn’t mean they won’t get there eventually.
According to energy economist Claudio Galimberti, even big economies like the US could fall into recession if the price of benchmark crude, like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), remained above a tipping point of around $140 per barrel for several months. Prices in the $180 per barrel range for a few months could trigger a global economic meltdown.
The price of WTI crude has not surpassed US$113 since February 28—the day the war began. There have been only 21 trading days since the war started when WTI sold for over $100 per barrel —that translates to only 20 per cent of the days oil has traded between February 28 and July 20.
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The price of WTI has simply not come close to hitting the $140 per barrel benchmark that would presumably trigger a global economic downturn.
Table 1 below provides a picture of price movements for WTI over the course of nearly five months of the war.
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Note regarding additional tables: Tables 3 and 4, which appear at the end of this article, provide a more detailed month by month presentation of monthly average prices from January 30 to July 20 for WTI and WCS crude. The two tables also include US$ and CA$ figures for WCS crude and data for February is presented to provide a comparison of pre-war and wartime prices.
Gasoline and diesel prices, during the war, have indeed been high enough to contribute to the consumer affordability crisis afflicting North America and Europe. But relative to the ominous predictions made in the early days of the war, the sky has not fallen.
Actually, we’ve been here before. There have been six occasions between early September 2008 and the start of the Israel-US with Iran when crude prices exceeded $100 per barrel. None of those price spikes, some of which lasted for several months, produced a worldwide recession. Actually, the reverse is true. Recessions caused by things other than high oil prices, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis, caused oil prices to plummet.
At first glance the price spikes over the 18 years prior to the current war suggest that crude prices have simply not risen high enough yet for the sky to fall.
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Table 2 below presents an overview and analysis of the six price spikes between 2008 and the start of the war in the Persian Gulf.
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Where did the pessimists go wrong?
Well for one thing, a good number of observers assumed that many countries with strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) would have exhausted them by early June. It turns out that countries such as the US with large SPRs are only just now exhausting them.
Much of the blame for overestimating the scale of the crisis to date can be attributed to poor arithmetic and weak journalism. Reporters for mainstream media organizations, including big news gathering agencies like Reuters wrote articles that relied on the excessive rounding of data points. This helped make the math simpler. For example, the proportion of global oil production by countries with coastlines on the Persian Gulf was identified as 20 per cent. It is a nice round number that complemented estimates for the combined daily production of those countries which was reported as 20 million bpd. This is another nice, round number and it is especially handy because it’s identical to the percentage figure. Total global crude production was rounded to a manageable 100 million bpd.
It is embarrassing to report that there were energy industry pundits and business journalists who also used the rounded figures until well into the war. The fact none of the numbers commonly referred to were very precise wasn’t seen a huge problem.
But the problem wasn’t just a lack of precision. Outright sloppy reporting had failed to show that as of mid-March 2026, from 7.5 million bpd to 8.8 million bpd of the oil produced by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) did not need to be transported through the Strait of Hormuz to get to buyers.
Since the late 1980s Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline system, officially named the Petroline, has been transporting approximately 5 million barrels of crude per day from large oil fields near the Persian Gulf some 750 miles across the Arabian Peninsula to a terminal at the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The Petroline system consists of two pipelines. There is a 56” diameter line that is regularly used to ship crude. And there is a smaller 48” line that was being used to transport natural gas liquids when the current war broke out. Saudi Aramco had converted the 48” line to an oil pipeline by the third week of March, increasing the Petroline system’s maximum crude carrying capacity to 7 million bpd. That means the amount of oil being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz is closer to 13 million bpd, than 20 million. It took many reporters a couple of months to determine the significance of the Petroline, some still haven’t.
But wait, there’s more.
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Another 1.5 to 1.8 million bpd avoids transiting the Strait thanks to the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline that runs 252 miles from the UAE to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
Both ports, Yanbu and Fujairah, have been struck by Iranian drones. And there have been at least two direct attacks on the Petroline. Nevertheless, even though operations at both ports have been periodically disrupted they have managed to sustain exports at close to full capacity levels throughout the war. The crude shipped via the Petroline and Abu Dhabi to Fujairah pipeline amounts to from 8.5 million bpd to 8.8 million bpd. This means the volume of crude removed from the world’s export trade is closer to from 11.2 million bpd to 11.5 million bpd than it is 20 million bpd.
That 8.5–8.8 million bpd overestimation of the volume of crude blocked from entering the global export market is one of the more significant errors contributing to predictions estimating higher crude prices in response to the war.
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More missing barrels
It wasn’t only journalists who had trouble counting. In June, a podcast featuring an interview with Claudio Galimberti reminded everyone that the official production figures reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) had probably underestimated global production at the close of 2025 by at least 2 million barrels per day.
Galimberti and others, including analysts from Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal, observed that going into 2026 there was a global surplus of crude. Industry analysts have dubbed this apparent oil glut “the missing barrels thesis” because they don’t show up in IEA and EIA global production figures. However, consulting firms like Rystad Energy apply computer modeling system to huge data sets based on information collected from oil producing companies. They contend that their methodology captures production that the official agencies miss.
Analysts Peter Zeihan and Jim Puplava have been trying to account for the missing barrels as well as the fact that despite a shortfall of nearly 2.0 billion barrels of crude supplies entering the global marketplace since the war began, prices haven’t risen as high as expected. (My own rough supply shortfall calculation came to 2.02 billion barrels). Zeihan and Puplava have added up all the barrels lost to miscalculation that they could locate. However, the total they come up with doesn’t even come close to the 2 billion barrels that have not been exported due to the war.
Zeihan claims even when reasonable estimates of unreported inventories are added up the total is too low to allow for lower than expected prices lasting any longer than the end of the summer. By then the effects of international SPR depletion will drive prices higher.
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Two of the more prominent assumptions about unreported inventories are:
1) China is a major consumer of oil and natural gas but is secretive when it comes to revealing the full amount they consume in official reports. In addition to its SPRs, China has been able to rely on coal-fired power generation and the use of coal to produce synthetic substitutes for some petrochemicals. China’s versatility in terms of energy sources is an example of temporary demand destruction.
2) Global shadow fleet tankers have been busting sanctions and smuggling oil for decades prior to the current war. Iran is a sanctions busting expert and is said to have shown Russia how to build its dark fleet of oil tankers. Obviously people involved in illicit oil production, transportation and marketing don’t show their books to the IEA and EIA.
The amount of oil available through shadow fleet systems has been in decline over the past two years, although it certainly hasn’t been eradicated. Ukraine has managed to disrupt Russian oil production, refining and shipping. And Venezuela’s 1.0 million bpd is no longer available to either the US or shadow fleets—the recent earthquake has destroyed the power grid—no electricity, no oil. Nevertheless, several million barrels of crude have probably made its way to international buyers since the war began.
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While the discussion thus far has been about the exaggeration of the scope and scale of the war and the oil crisis on markets and the global economy, it is worth remembering that for some countries the supply chain disruption and supply shortfall have caused serious hardship.
Zeihan has aptly described the conditions confronting countries like Vietnam that lack both oil and gas reserves and refining capacity. He points out that there is a huge difference between high cost crude when you can get the crude, and high cost crude when you can’t get the crude. One involves economic adjustments, moving around some money and priorities, but with the other one it’s just not possible to obtain or make use of crude (or LNG) at any price.
When you think about it we shouldn’t be all that surprised to discover that journalists and a few energy industry analysts have sensationalized the scale of the current oil crisis and overestimated the volumes of crude being produced and exported. Perhaps legacy media journalist get things wrong because they are overworked and have to cope with unreasonable deadlines. Then again it could be that some of them are lazy, not all that bright and clearly mathematically impaired. After all we’ve been watching them in action for the past two decades as they sensationalized the scale and pace of global warming and unfairly demonized fossil fuel production.
When it comes to whether or not the price hikes predicted at the start of the war will appear this summer, and whether or not those prices will trigger a global economic meltdown—we’ll know for sure in a couple of months.
FYI there are two supplemental tables for this article provided below.
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