Jim Warren is a recovering academic as retired adjunct professor and lecturer in environmental sociology at the University of Regina.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, left, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford pose with a map of the Northern Shield pipeline proposal in Calgary, Monday, July 6, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
The Saskatchewan Party government has ambitious plans for increasing the province’s crude oil production and exports. On August 6, Premier Scott Moe told listeners to the Evan Bray radio program, “We’d like to see a doubling of our production, or at least a 50 per cent increase in the next two to 5 years—but eventually up to one million barrels per day.”
Moe’s ambition is qualified by the fact production can’t be increased in the absence of corresponding increases in access to pipeline capacity. That probably explains why Scott Moe and Saskatchewan’s Energy Minister, Chris Beaudry are unlikely to encounter any new pipeline proposals that they don’t like.
In February of 2025 Moe jokingly declared that, “All pipelines through the province are pre-approved.”
Good intentions aside, there is an uncomfortable reality that is bound to frustrate Saskatchewan’s oil production growth plans. The current pace of growth in access to export pipeline space for Saskatchewan crude is probably too slow to accommodate the government’s ambitious production goals.
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Slow growth in pipeline capacity for Saskatchewan crude is partly the result of excessively onerous federal government environmental approval legislation. Some observers contend the recent relaxation of some of the federal barriers to new pipeline construction will help increase export capacity for the producing provinces in the West. Furthermore, there is a flurry of new pipeline proposals on the drawing board which they claim will result in greater access to export markets. There is optimism in the air.
Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel put it this way: “Canada has a generational opportunity to expand its oil output as a result of federal government policy changes over the past year and the rollback of some environmental rules.”
Perhaps the optimists are right. But, there are others who aren’t so sure. Our experience over the past decade indicates crude oil export pipeline proposals are far more likely to fail than they are to succeed. If doing what’s been done to get new pipelines built during the Justin Trudeau/Mark Carney period hasn’t worked, maybe it’s time try something new.
Yet, officially, the province remains wedded to past practice. Energy and Resources Minister, Chris Beaudry, told Pipeline Online, “The province relies primarily on the private sector to drive decisions regarding pipeline route selection, where origin [points], end points, and routes are determined by long-term supply and demand dynamics and cost effectiveness.”
No surprise there. The Saskatchewan Party government steadfastly endorses the principles of market economics. Pipeline proposals are, and should be, based on private sector business decisions which are based on market signals and sound investment practices. But, that doesn’t mean the government is incapable of trying something different. And, unofficially it appears that it has.
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On July 6, the governments of Alberta and Ontario announced a proposal to build a 500,000 bpd crude oil pipeline along what they are calling the Northern Shield Energy Corridor*. The pipeline will run from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario. The announcement indicated that Saskatchewan supports the proposal and apparently took part in some of the planning. It also suggests the province could have additional input when it comes to building and operating the new pipeline. In this instance, at least, Saskatchewan appears to have adopted a more interventionist and less laissez faire approach to increasing pipeline capacity.
*Note: hereafter the project will be referred to as the “Northern Shield Pipeline.”
The impetus behind the Northern Shield proposal isn’t simply that there is a good business case for building it. The primary goal of the project is to support national sovereignty and energy independence. It is one of those projects in the national interest that our prime minister claims to support and wants to fast track.
The discussion that follows examines the flaws and pitfalls associated with the current flurry of pipeline proposals intended to increase Western Canadian oil exports. It also considers the case of the Northern Shield Pipeline, including why it is critical to energy security for Ontario and how it could support a modest increase in Saskatchewan’s oil production and exports.
Enbridge puts second phase of its Mainline expansion on hold
Apparently, Enbridge’s July 31 decision to shelve Phase 2 of its Mainline Optimization Program hasn’t dampened the Government of Saskatchewan’s optimism. Yet there are other observers who have become slightly less hopeful. Some people imagined the additional 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) of export capacity offered by the Mainline expansion would help provide Saskatchewan oil producers with increased access to pipelines heading to the US.
That doesn’t mean Saskatchewan would get all or even most of that extra capacity. But when combined with other export pipelines currently on the drawing board the optimists made the reasonable assumption that there would be enough extra room in the system to accommodate a significant increase in Saskatchewan production.
Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization Program Phase 2
(shown in yellow)
Note: Enbridge’s Line 5 is shown as a black line running from the Southwest tip of Lake Superior to Sarnia, Ontario’s refineries and petrochemical production facilities. Enbridge map
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Over the past decade, growth in Saskatchewan’s oil production and export pipeline capacity has occurred around the same times, but in modest increments. It has been achieved partly by piggybacking onto pipelines built to carry Alberta oil across Saskatchewan to the US. In the southeast of the province the vast majority of crude finds its way to the US via Enbridge’s Mainline system, which originates in Alberta. Most of the heavy crude produced in the northwest of the province is transported by connector pipelines to the oil shipping hub at Hardisty, Alberta, and from there to the US. The trouble is, the lines currently used to export oil out of Saskatchewan are operating at full capacity or near to it.
Insanity by the sea
The Pacific pipeline proposal described in the infamous Alberta-Ottawa MOU is far from a sure thing. This past week environmentalists in Vancouver and area indicated they are gearing up for a major battle over the pipeline to the Pacific. And, the deceptively named Coastal First Nations took the gloves off several months ago.
No less disturbing is the fact no one is quite sure who holds legal title to the land in B.C.’s Lower Mainland—or anywhere else in the province for that matter. No doubt the land claims of the Cowichan Tribes and other First Nations will disrupt progress on the pipeline. Expect lawsuits and protests galore before a shovel ever hits the ground. They don’t call B.C.’s politics and court system “insanity by the sea” for nothing.
The Prairie Connector
And then there is the Trump-approved Prairie Connector which constitutes a partial revival of the cancelled Keystone XL project. This pipeline will transport around 550,000 bpd from Hardisty, Alberta, to Guernsey, Wyoming. No surprise, the project has already been targeted for disruption by the usual suspects from the environmental movement—many of the same folks who opposed and delayed the Dakota Access Pipeline.
Will Trump’s approval stick? He does like oil. But then again, he’s insanely erratic. For all we know Trump could cancel the project out of spite the next time Doug Ford or Mark Carney offend him, or a Canadian says he looks fat.
And who knows? What if despite the antics of their nutty socialist faction, the Democrats take back the House this year or win back the presidency in 2028? It could happen. You might have seen Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse on his tour of US mainstream television public affairs programs this past month. Whitehouse says the first two things a new Democratic administration would do are deal with cost of living issues, and relaunch America’s climate change crusade. The Democrats killed the Keystone XL twice, who’s to say they won’t kill the Prairie Connector if they get a chance?
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Line 5 Uncertainty
And then there is the Line 5 problem. Line 5 is part of the Enbridge Lakehead System, an extension of its Mainline. It conveys oil from Western Canada to refiners in the US Midwest and Ontario. US environmentalists, Indian bands and Democrats have been calling for the shutdown of Line 5 for years. They are particularly disturbed by the four miles of twinned Line 5 pipe that crosses the Straits of Mackinac (which connects Lake Michigan to Lake Huron and the other Great Lakes).
Note: the small print on the map provided below is difficult to read. However, a written description describing the route of Line 5 is available after the map.
Map showing major sections of the Enbridge Mainline including Line 5
Line 5 is one of the pipelines shown in red. It begins at the Southwest tip of Lake Superior. It runs east from there to the Straits of Mackinac near Mackinaw City, from there it heads South and Southwest to Sarnia, Ontario, which is located on the East side of the St. Clair River.
In 2018, a tugboat anchor struck communications cables that accompany the section of Line 5 that crosses the Straits. The damaged cables released approximately 800 gallons of dielectric fluid (mineral oil) into the Straits. Since then there have been at least six court cases plus appeals opposing the pipeline as well as demands by Michigan legislators to have Line 5 decommissioned.
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The most recent court ruling to threaten the life of Line 5 was handed down on August 3. In a 6-1 decision, the Michigan Supreme Court ordered state regulators to revoke a key permit that allowed the planned Straits of Mackinac tunnel project to move forward. Without the tunnel, Line Five is doomed.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who was originally opposed to the continuing operation of Line 5, eventually agreed to a reprieve for the line in response to Enbridge’s plan to build a tunnel under the Straits. Estimated to cost from $750 million to $800 million, the 21 foot diameter, concrete-lined tunnel will be drilled into the bedrock 100 feet below the bottom of the Straits. Whitmer’s second and final term as governor expires this November.
Michigan’s current secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, is favoured to win the governor’s job this November by 10 per cent over her Republican opponent. Benson’s position regarding the Line 5 permit will be especially critical given the current court-ordered regulatory approval review. If the permit problems aren’t solved, Ontario could be in big trouble. The province relies on Line 5 for virtually all of the 600,000 bpd of crude it consumes.
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The Northern Shield proposal
This takes us to the seemingly sensible idea of building the Northern Shield pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario. The line would run past Regina and Winnipeg and across Northern Ontario before turning South to Sarnia—an all-Canadian route.
Proposed route for the Northern Shield Energy Corridor/Pipeline
If built, the Northern Shield pipeline will strengthen Canadian sovereignty and energy independence. It would eliminate the risks associated with relying on a pipeline crossing American soil to supply oil to Ontario.
Ontario’s citizens, industry and economy would be in crisis should the flow of oil via Line Five be curtailed without a backup system in place. Sure, Ontario has lots of nuclear and natural gas- generated electrical power available. However, the province’s auto fleet is still dominated by gas and diesel burning vehicles. Virtually all heavy construction and excavation depend on diesel-fueled equipment. And without access to diesel and airplane fuel virtually all commercial trucking and aviation would cease.
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If built, the Northern Shield Pipeline would initially convey 550,000 bpd, approximating Ontario’s current requirements. The planners have indicated that capacity could be increased to as much as 800,000 bpd to some day accommodate shipments headed to Quebec and Atlantic Canada. That would more than make up for the capacity increase that would be lost should Phase 2 of Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization Program not be revived.
If the Northern Shield Pipeline isn’t a project in the national interest, nothing is. If Saskatchewan remains actively involved in the project, the greater its chances are for getting guaranteed access to a modest, yet reasonable, amount of space on the pipeline for Saskatchewan producers. Obviously, Saskatchewan has some negotiating leverage given that the pipeline will cross the province.
I expect the province would rather not talk about leverage. Who wants to sound like a David Eby-style extortionist? Let’s instead refer to any benefits accruing to Saskatchewan as a thank-you for so consistently supporting Alberta in its efforts to combat unreasonable federal policies related to oil production, pipelines, equalization and so on.
Next steps? Would it be helpful to have a vocal, highly visible fan club for the Northern Shield Pipeline? Supporters of the project could develop promotional campaigns to improve the chances the pipeline will be approved and actually built. Hopefully, the effort would receive support from stakeholders in each of the provinces affected.
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