Preston Manning. Photo courtesy Government of Alberta
Preston Manning’s comments about the impact of a Liberal election win are timely and accurate: Liberal inaction on policies damaging to Western Canada’s oil and gas industries is a threat to national unity
Oops, somebody just said the quiet part out loud.
In an op-ed that appeared in The Globe and Mail on April 2, Preston Manning, the gray eminence of constitutional reform and Western alienation said, “Voters, particularly in central and Atlantic Canada, need to recognize that a vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession—a vote for the breakup of Canada as we know it.”
Manning explained that support for secession is strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan and is tied to longstanding popular opposition to federal resource policy. He added that secessionist sentiment has the potential to spread to Manitoba, B.C. and the territories.
At this stage in the federal election campaign, it is apparent the Carney Liberals do not intend to adequately address the most pressing of the longstanding concerns of Alberta and Saskatchewan. These include the Liberals’ failure to present realistic policy proposals for expediting the establishment of ocean to ocean energy corridors and the construction of new pipelines from the prairies to tidewater. For example, Carney does not intend to rescind or even modify Bill C-69, the Impact Assessment Act. Trying to build a pipeline under that rules regime would be tantamount to a plea for psychiatric help.
No less disturbing, Carney has not agreed to repeal Liberal measures including emissions caps on oil and gas production, the clean electricity standard, or the national EV mandate and other policies designed to restrict growth and profitability in the oil and gas sectors.
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In response to Trump’s threats and actions on tariffs, the federal Liberals have floated a number of ideas for retaliation that would be inimical to the non-renewable resource sector in the West. These include the imposition of export taxes on Western Canadian oil, gas and potash exports to the US.
Such measures would appear to constitute an assault on the constitutional rights of the Western provinces over ownership and control of their natural resources. A tax on Western oil exports will encourage the Trump administration to retaliate by seeking alternative sources for oil until such a time as the US reaches Trump’s goal of becoming self-sufficient in petroleum production. Assuming the US could meet Trump’s production goals any time in the near future without Canadian oil is somewhat fanciful. That is unless the US decides to look elsewhere in the world for oil to quickly meet Trump’s target. Ideally, if the oil tariffs remain low enough and no high export taxes are added to the cost, US importers will continue to depend on Canadian oil—no thanks to the Liberals.
It hasn’t helped that Eastern Canadian media commentators like purported agriculture and food expert Professor Sylvain Charlebois have been cheering on the Liberal idea of a potash export tax. It’s rather easy for an Eastern academic to fix a trade problem at Saskatchewan’s expense.
The impact of an export tax on Saskatchewan potash threatens an immediate and potentially long-lasting threat to Saskatchewan’s $16.7 billion in annual potash revenues (2022-2023 figures).
Saskatchewan is currently the world’s largest potash producer and exporter. Belarus would be running a much closer second were it not for international sanctions imposed in response to its support of Russian aggression against Ukraine.
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Trump’s April 2 announcement of global tariffs did not include any tariff measures affecting Russia or Belarus. Given Trump’s affinity for Putin and all things Russian it seems unlikely he would let sanctions on a Russian puppet state prevent him from buying their potash.
Unfortunately, Belarus has already found ways to skirt sanctions and its share of global exports is already increasing. Saskatchewan’s potash revenues have fallen by over $6 billion since 2023.
Nevertheless, taxes on Saskatchewan’s potash exports will not improve the situation. If it makes good business sense, US potash importers might consider buying more Belarusian potash than is required for domestic needs and act as export brokers who sell sanctioned potash to the world—just like they do with our oil.
Little wonder an Angus Reid poll conducted between March 20 and March 24 showed that 33% of Saskatchewan respondents said they would vote “yes” to leave Canada to become an independent country if the Liberals win the upcoming federal election. That is three points higher than the 30% of Alberta and Quebec respondents’ answers to the same question.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney arrives for a television interview at Maison de Radio Canada during a campaign stop in Montreal on Sunday, April 13, 2025. Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre are both campaigning in Montreal today, days before the federal leaders take part in debates. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi
Mark Carney told reporters that Preston Manning’s comments “have not been helpful.”
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He must be referring to them not being helpful to his campaign. Saying they are not helpful doesn’t mean they aren’t accurate. No doubt, the Liberals will do their utmost to shift responsibility for Manning’s warning to Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative campaign, rather than take responsibility for high levels of Western alienation.
At present it appears winning votes in Central Canada and the Maritimes is more important to the Liberals than addressing serious longstanding Western grievances. If Carney happens to win and fails to end the 10 year Trudeau-Carney assault on the non-renewable resource sector, it will not be something people in the West will passively accept.
Suggestions being made by big thinkers like Manning for the actions the provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan should take in the wake of a Liberal election win will be widely considered by serious people. The governments of these two provinces and a significant segment of their populations will demand it.
Clearly, when it comes to Canadian national unity it is Carney and the Liberals who have been less than helpful.
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