Jim Warren is a recovering academic as retired adjunct professor and lecturer in environmental sociology at the University of Regina.
Polls show heat and smoke have increased Canadians’ concerns about climate change: Not to worry, it won’t cause Carney to back down on Pacific pipeline concessions
U.S. President Donald Trump looks toward Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as they raise their glasses during a toast at a working dinner in Gyeongju, South Korea on Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
n response to forest fires, smoke and a series of hot days this summer concern about climate change among Canadians rose seven percentage points between March 2026 and the end of July.
According to polls conducted by the Angus Reid Institute, the number of Canadians who reported climate change was one of their top three policy concerns, rose in sync with temperatures: from 14 percent in March to 17 percent in June and 21 percent by the end of July.
Climate activists will be pleased with the increasing concern shown in the polls despite their worries about the climate apocalypse that this summer’s weather conditions presumably heralded. That’s because Canada’s climate crusaders know they can weaponize the rising public concern. The poll numbers will support their lobbying efforts, presumably helping to convince our Liberal government that voters are ready for a return to more stringent measures to reduce emissions.
Climate warriors assume that if enough people are afraid that a planetary meltdown is at hand, the government can safely roll back the concessions made to Alberta, the new Pacific pipeline proponents and the Pathways Alliance project. The alarmists hope the Liberals can be persuaded to reverse those concessions and revive the take-no-prisoners practices employed by Gerald Butts and Steven Guilbeault—Justin Trudeau’s anti-oil and gas champions.
The Carney government has indeed relaxed some of the Trudeau era’s environmental rules, including some which have been barriers to new export pipeline approval and construction. Carney’s administration also rolled back elements of the EV mandates and limits on fossil fuel production such as the emissions cap.
As far as environmental activists are concerned, Carney has conceded too much while many supporters of oil and gas production in the West don’t think he’s gone far enough.
The activists are unlikely to win the argument.
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If climate activists think the government will reenact environmental measures that clearly increase the cost of living for hard-pressed Canadian consumers, they are out of luck. This is largely because even though 21 percent of Canadians polled now list climate change as one of their top three concerns, a whopping 60 percent of Canadians list cost of living as one of their top three worries followed by 40 percent listing health care.
Climate change came in at ninth place on the list of 14 issues included in the survey as of March 2026. This author estimates that on a Canada-wide basis it rose to approximately seventh place out of 14 in the issues rankings as of late July. An appendix is provided at the end of this article that includes several tables, additional detailed analysis of Canadian top of mind poll results and explanatory notes. The appendix helps place the current wave of climate alarm in the context of the wide range of issues of concern to voters.
Voters’ top two or three top of mind issues are typically the focus of the messages delivered by Canada’s political parties during election campaigns. Thirty second to one minute TV ads and short news clips featuring snippets from party leaders’ speeches at events don’t provide the time required to deal with more than a few key issues. And that small handful of issues are repeated ad nauseam throughout the course of the campaign.
Too bad, so sad for the climate alarmed, issues that are ranked down around seventh place like the environment and climate change don’t dominate the political discourse before, during or after election campaigns. Sure, an extreme weather event can dominate a few news cycles any time of year that it occurs. And a spike in temperatures, forest fires or a flood could indeed become an election issue if it occurred just before or during the campaign. But even then there is a good chance the issue would only have significant political relevance in the region where it was occurring.
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Carney didn’t reduce the barriers to growth in oil production and exports because he has ceased to believe in the “threat” posed by global warming. He did it because Canada is in serious economic trouble and supporting growth in fossil fuel exports is one of the few things that offer him a credible solution. Carney will never admit it but he has, at least temporarily, become more like a climate realist and less like a climate zealot.
On August 22, Donald Trump underlined the importance of Carney’s adoption of a more realistic perspective. The country simply can’t afford the expense of a rapid green transition while dealing with the economic mayhem created by Trump, including his new 50 per cent tariffs on over $20 billion worth of Canadian exports to the US set to come into effect 1 January.
A high cost, green transition is off the table as long as the Trump administration wages its erratic trade war with the rest of the world. What can you do when the leadership of your major trading partner is bent on national self-harm?
We really didn’t need any additional chaos. It’s hard enough dealing with the tariffs already in place and the uncertainty surrounding what a corrupt and irrational US administration might do next.
It took the Carney government ten months to make the concessions that could make a new Pacific oil pipeline possible. Perhaps the delay was understandable given the entrenched positions of Canada’s climate alarmists and climate realists. Supporters of increased oil production and exports to non-US countries were generally pleased to see Carney step away from some of the anti-oil measures imposed by the Justin Trudeau government. The Trudeau administration’s assault on Western oil production and export pipelines was viewed on the prairies as both excessive and punitive.
The Prairie West, Alberta in particular, is the source of the oil that has been sustaining Canada’s economic fortunes for decades. Nevertheless, Central Canada’s Liberals found it all too easy to satisfy their climate concerns at the expense of the producing provinces and consumers.
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The madness of the Trudeau years is still fresh in our minds. The Liberals’ green transition would be delivered through mechanisms like the imposition of carbon taxes and the cancellation of pipelines. Federal mandates compelled important manufacturing industries like the auto sector to adopt practices that made no business sense. Auto companies would be punished if they did not reduce sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles and increase their production of EVs.
Admittedly, there were some incentive programs and financial support for alternative energy development, but for the most part the core programs involved compulsion and penalties. Canada’s climate czar, Steven Guilbeault, clearly shares some of Donald Trump’s authoritarian tendencies
The green transition was viewed by those targeted as a heavy-handed assault by a virtue signaling Laurentian Elite for whom the costs of fighting climate change are a mere inconvenience. They simply passed the lion’s share of the bill onto the thirty-five million ordinary Canadians who were already having trouble paying for groceries.
By way of summary, it is a safe bet that the alarmists’ tantrums over heat and smoke are unlikely to prompt a reversal of the Carney government’s pipeline-related concessions. Carney knows the country desperately needs to increase its export options and revenues.
But, regardless of the recent climb down on a few of the environmental policies most heartily detested in Alberta and Saskatchewan, don’t expect the anti-oil and anti-pipeline campaigns of environmentalists, including those in the federal government, to disappear anytime soon. Between First Nations’ objections, the protests of climate activists, and the unavoidable avalanche of court cases the new Pacific pipeline is still far from a sure thing.
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Appendix
Top of Mind Polling: Methods & Bias
Top of mind polls assess the issues of most concern to the people polled. Top of mind polls typically focus on issues relevant to public policy and politics. Most of the polling data presented in the following tables is from polls conducted by the Angus Reid Institute. The methodology used in the polls involves respondents contacted via telephone or online panels. Respondents are asked to identify the three issues of most concern to them. They are provided with a list of 15 issues which the pollster assumes are the most pressing and topical at the time (including an open ended “other” option).
Bias is built into the method because of the pollster’s ability to discriminate between issues they feel should be included and those they choose not to include. For example, Liberal corruption and cronyism are prominent issues in the public eye that the list does not include, but might rank quite high if included.
Angus Reid Institute poll results showing the percentage of Canadians identifying climate change/the environment as one of their top three issues of concern (June 2014 – July 2026)
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The next table identifies the five top of mind issues aka political issues of most concern to supporters of Canada’s four leading parties. The data shown is from the Angus Reid Institute’s
Report on the status of environment and climate change as a top of mind concern published on July 29, 2026. The institute provided the following text to explain the significance of the data.
“A renewed focus on the environment has political implications, especially for the governing Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney. The party’s policies on the environment have shifted significantly compared to those under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, resulting in Trudeau’s former environment minister [Steven Guilbeault] resigning from Carney’s cabinet and eventually stepping down as an MP saying the country is “backsliding” on climate action.
Climate does not rank among the top five issues for those who would vote for the Liberals if there were a federal election today. But it does for current NDP supporters (49% select it as top issue) and those who would vote for the Bloc Québécois (33%). In the 2025 federal election, there were seven formerly NDP seats and 12 formerly BQ seats that went to the Liberals.
There are a different suite of issues driving those who would vote for the CPC if the election were today, including immigration (38%), the deficit (31%) and taxes (27%).”
Obviously, it is possible to get an idea of how the party preference data presented in the following table can be used as a proxy for provincial and regional preference estimates. For example, the concerns of Conservative supporters will be predominant in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Liberal support, on the other hand will be most concentrated in urban Ontario and BC, etc.
Five issues of greatest concern to supporters of Canada’s four largest political parties July 2026
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Relevance of the March 2026 Top of Mind Issues Data
The two-part table presented below shows the rankings for top of mind issues among Canadians as of March 2026. Late winter 2026 was a three year low point for concerns about climate change and the environment. However, worries about excessive heat and forest fires contributed to an increase in concern for those issues in June and July.
The table is included in the Appendix because it shows the entire 15 issues context in which concerns about climate are located. It allows us to compare and contrast items from the entire list of issues. The table and the notes following the table also provide example for how specific groups view the various issues. Unfortunately, the author could not locate any complete data tables for Angus Reid’s June and July 2026 polls.
Canadians’ Top of Mind Issues from Angus Reid Institute Top of Mind polling data for March 2026
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Canadians’ Top of Mind Issues from Angus Reid Institute Top of Mind polling data for March 2026 Continued…
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