Jim Warren is a recovering academic as retired adjunct professor and lecturer in environmental sociology at the University of Regina.
One assessment shows that if 176 Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) equivalent tankers quit transporting sanctioned Russian and/or Venezuelan oil, global crude prices could increase by over 50%
Over the past two years, life has become a bit more dangerous and expensive for ship owners and sailors connected with the Shadow Fleet that transports much of the world’s sanctioned petroleum. The Ukraine has been attacking sanctions-dodging oil tankers with drones and US forces have seized two tankers and harassed another in the Caribbean.
The assessment presented below looks first at Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russia’s oil exports and refinery production, followed by an examination of actions taken, and threats made by the US against Venezuela’s oil industry. Those two conflicts will then be compared with the infamous Persian Gulf Tanker War of the 1980s.
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Ukrainian success
In November and December 2025, Ukraine’s military launched successful drone attacks on six oil tankers involved in transporting sanctioned Russian oil. In addition, Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, is alleged to have planted bombs and caused explosions on several oil tankers sailing near Russian oil terminals in 2024 and 2025.
Prior to October of this year, Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russia’s oil industry were primarily focused on attacking oil infrastructure. There have been at least 39 drone and missile attacks on Russian oil refineries, pipeline infrastructure and shipping terminals since August 2025. In November, the target list was expanded to include three offshore oil well platforms in the Caspian Sea, along with attacks on six sanctions-dodging Shadow Fleet oil tankers.
Oil refinery explosion following Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian city of Syzran. The Syzran refinery is one of Russia’s largest. It produces 800,000 tonnes of gasoline and 1.5 million tonnes of diesel fuel annually. Photo credit: ExilenovaPlus/Telegram UK.
Three of the tanker attacks were on ships in the Black Sea. A more recent attack, also close to Ukraine, was the December 18 drone attack on the Russian-flagged ship, Valeriy Gorchakov, near the Sea of Azov port at Rostov-on–Don. That attack is reported to have killed at least two members of the ship’s crew.
The two most amazing of Ukraine’s tanker attacks occurred over a thousand miles from Ukraine. The Shadow Fleet tanker, Mersin, was struck by drones in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Senegal on November 27. Mersin’s owner said that in the future he will refrain from using the ship to transport Russian oil.
Then on December 19 the Omani-flagged shadow tanker, Qendil, was hit by drones in the Mediterranean. The ship was sailing in neutral waters off the coast of Libya when attacked, approximately 1,250 miles from Ukraine. The Qendil was empty and on its way from India to the Black Sea port of Ust-Luga to load up on Russian crude. An SBU report claims the tanker sustained critical damage.
Sources: Spaniel, William (2025 Dec. 15). World Oil War: Inside Ukraine’s Expanded Campaign and the Huge US Seizure. Lines on Maps (YouTube Channel). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOA4V6mugb8
Balmforth, Tom & Jonathan Saul (2025 Dec. 19). Ukraine strikes Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker in Mediterranean. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-hits-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-mediterranean-first-time-sbu-source-2025-12-19/
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Challenges, uncertainty and some calculations
While each of the drone and missile attacks listed above involved confirmed explosions, many of which caused fires, the actual extent of damage to ships, refineries and terminals along with the number of any associated casualties is rarely made clear. Nevertheless, there have been enough confirmed strikes on refineries, pipeline infrastructure and offshore wells to ensure Russia’s domestic supplies of diesel fuel oil and gasoline and its war effort have been noticeably affected.
The strikes on the Mersin and the Qendil required flying drones through the airspace of one or more NATO member states, possibly with assistance in secretly staging drone launching activities well beyond the borders of Ukraine. Both attacks suggest countries sympathetic with Ukraine’s war effort have pretended to look the other way and may have intentionally provided additional assistance for the missions.
Actual footage from the drone attack on the oil tanker Qendil off the coast
of Libya December 19, 2025.
Source: Ukraine’s SBU security service.
Both the Mersin and Qendil were empty when attacked. Analysts assume selecting empty tankers is intentional—a measure designed to prevent major oil spills in international waters. The possibility of injuring crew members is apparently a less egregious matter than upsetting European environmentalists.
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Ukraine’s military planners hope a sustained campaign of attacks on Russian oil terminals and Shadow Fleet tankers will reduce the size of Russia’s oil exports and revenues, impacting its ability to wage war. An optimal outcome would see many more Shadow Fleet operators follow the lead of the Mersin’s owner and quit transporting Russian oil.
But there are a lot of Shadow Fleet operators to convince. An estimated 700 of the world’s 1,000-1,400 vessel Shadow Fleet are engaged full-time or occasionally in transporting sanctioned Russian oil. My calculations indicate Russia’s annual tanker requirements work out to approximately 486 Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) equivalent oil tankers working full-time year-round. VLCC tankers can transport up to 2.0 million barrels of crude oil.
(Note: Many Shadow Fleet tankers are smaller than the VLCC class; especially those accessing smaller Russian ports. Oil tanker size classifications and capacities range from: Panamax ≈500,000 barrels (bbl), Aframax ≈750,000 bbl, ≈Suez Max 1,000,000 bbl, Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) ≈2,000,000 bbl, Ultra Large Crude Carrier up to 4,000,000 barrels.
By way of comparison the capacity of tankers typically used to transport oil in World War II Atlantic convoys was ≈146,000 bbl—85 per cent less than the capacity of a modern Suez Max tanker, a VLCC tanker can carry ≈14 time the oil that a WWII vintage tanker could haul.)
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Potential effects on the world price for crude
History has shown that under certain conditions it is possible for as little as a 4 per cent drop in the supply of crude oil available to the global oil export market to cause a doubling of the world price for oil. A case in point is the second World Energy Crisis (circa 1979-1985) which was connected with the Persian Gulf Tanker War (circa 1981-1988). Conversely, in November of 2014 when the Saudis and other OPEC members increased the global oil supply of around 1 per cent, the world price for crude dropped by $50 per barrel.
Of course historical conditions decades apart are never precisely the same. But looking at what could happen to global oil exports and prices in the wake of a 4 per cent reduction in global exports today may provide some useful insights.
If a 4 per cent reduction in the size of the global oil export market occurred entirely at the expense of Russia’s market share, Russia’s overall economic performance would take a significant hit and its ability to wage war would be reduced accordingly. Russian oil exports would fall from 10.75 million barrels per day (bpd) to 6.68 million bpd, a 38 per cent drop. For this to happen 176 VLCC equivalent tankers transporting Russian oil, full-time year-round, would have to cease hauling sanctioned Russian oil.
An alternative approach would be to focus on damaging Russian oil shipping terminals. Ukraine has been using a combination of both tactics.
Of course disabling or sinking that many tankers is an impossibly ambitious goal. But Ukraine does not need to attack and damage all of them. They need to attack just enough of them to encourage a good portion of the others to quit transporting Russian oil.
October 15 satellite image of fire at Russia’s Feodosia oil terminal following a Ukrainian drone attack on October 13. Satellite image ©2025 Vantor. From Business Insider article Oct. 22 https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-anti-drone-netting-damage-russian-oil-sites-2025-10
Russia is the world’s third biggest oil exporter, accounting for 11 per cent of the global export market. I calculated that reducing Russia’s oil exports by 38 per cent could produce price increases raising world prices back up to USD $100 per barrel or more. At present that outcome seems too good to be true. But regardless of what we might reasonably expect, it is nevertheless within the realm of possibility.
Venezuela’s troubled oil industry
Despite having the world’s largest oil reserves Venezuela’s oil industry has struggled to attain world class levels of production and exports. The industry’s problems extend back to a 2003 strike by employees of the state-owned oil and gas company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA). A central issue in the dispute was the strikers’ call for the ouster of Venezuela’s socialist president, Hugo Chavez.
Chavez’s response was to fire 18,000 to 20,000 of the strikers, including engineers and technical staff. They were replaced with Chavez cronies and political loyalists. Venezuela’s pre-strike level of production was around 700,000 barrels per day. As one might have guessed production collapsed following the firings.
However, by the late 20-teens a modest turnaround was underway. China had become Venezuela’s biggest oil customer. And while China bought PDVSA oil at a substantial discount, it also provided benefits including technical know-how and financing to upgrade oil industry infrastructure. China currently purchases around 85 per cent of Venezuela’s oil exports. And Venezuela’s oil industry is estimated to be $10 billion in debt to Chinese interests.
Venezuela has been described as China’s South American bridgehead, a base from which to spread its economic and political influence to other Latin American countries with left leaning governments.
The table provided below shows the growth in Venezuelan oil exports from 2020 up to the summer of 2025. That growth has occurred despite a host of sanctions imposed by the US. The sanctions have included penalties for countries and companies purchasing Venezuelan oil, including US-based companies.
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Many of the US sanctions were implemented in response to the autocratic behaviour of Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chavez’s successor as president. One of Maduro’s most notable sanctions generating sins was fixing Venezuela’s 2018 presidential election by banning the participation of several opposition parties from the contest.
Opposition groups were allowed to participate in the 2024 election, but ongoing repression and voter suppression compromised the result, allowing the unpopular Maduro to remain as president.
US President Joe Biden’s administration removed some of the US sanctions prior to Venezuela’s 2024 election to help secure Maduro’s second bad-faith promise to hold free and fair elections. For instance, special permits allowing some US-based oil companies to do business in Venezuela were to be issued on a case-by-case basis.
Chevron was the first US oil company to obtain permission to import Venezuelan oil to the US. The permit remained in place until 2025 when the Trump administration cancelled it.
*Estimate that includes no export data after August.
Source: data derived from Import Globals (Accessed Dec. 21, 2025) Venezuela’s Oil Export Rebound for 2025 and Beyond.
https://www.importglobals.com/blog/venezuelas-oil-export-rebound-2025-and-beyond#:~:text=Venezuela per cent20has per cent20the per cent20largest per cent20known,in per cent20the per cent20world’s per cent20energy per cent20markets.
By August 2025, Venezuela’s oil exports had increased to nearly one million barrels per day. That total moved Venezuela into around 20th place in the rankings for the world’s largest oil exporters.
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All bets are off when it comes to predicting the size of Venezuela’s oil exports for 2026. During the fall of 2025, the Trump administration reinvigorated several old sanctions that had failed to achieve significant results in the past. They also concocted a number of new and innovative “Trumpian” sanctions of questionable legality.
One of the first manifestations of Trump’s recently conceived methods for sanctions enforcement is the campaign to thwart Venezuelan drug smuggling. From September until Christmas 2025, American military aircraft destroyed 29 vessels allegedly carrying drugs bound for the US. The attacks have killed 105 people.
By December, Trump’s target list had expanded to include seizing oil tankers attempting to do business with Venezuela. The seizure of sanctions-dodging oil tankers is surprisingly rare (as is attacking them with drones). Most often when sanctions are enforced it involves fines and things like the freezing of bank accounts and imposing tariffs.
Donald Trump is not troubled by failing to do what’s normally done. Lately he has been threatening to seize Venezuela’s entire oil industry. He claims the industry was stolen from US interests when Venezuela nationalized it back in 1976. Contrary to Trump’s interpretation of the nationalization, companies whose assets were acquired by the state received financial compensation in the form of Venezuelan government bonds—albeit companies complained the bonds did not constitute sufficient payment.
On December 10 US armed forces seized the Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Skipper on the Caribbean off the Venezuelan coast. The Skipper is a VLCC class tanker capable of transporting up to two million barrels of crude oil. After its seizure the Skipper was piloted to a US port where it is currently impounded; its cargo has been confiscated by the US government.
The Panamanian-flagged oil tanker Centuries shortly after its seizure by the US Coast Guard in the southern Caribbean December 20, 2025.
Photo credit: U.S. Department of Homeland Security photo
Ten days later, on December 20, US forces seized a second VLCC tanker, the Panamanian-flagged Centuries, which was loaded with 1.8 million barrels of crude oil. The Centuries along with its crew and cargo have been detained. The ship and the oil will likely be confiscated. The fate of the crews of both seized ships is not entirely clear.
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The very next day the US Coast Guard attempted to stop and capture the ship Bella 1, another VLCC tanker. The Bella 1 was intercepted by the US Coast Guard on its return voyage to Venezuela from China which suggests it was empty. The tanker was able to avoid capture. It was last detected heading out into the wide-open Atlantic. That must have been embarrassing for Trump and his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth. It could mean they will insist on future seizure efforts being more aggressive.
The seizure of two ships involved in exporting Venezuelan oil didn’t do much to reduce the size of the world’s sanctions-busting Shadow Fleet. But, as suggested earlier, what it might do is discourage other ship owners from risking similar black market voyages.
That being said, if the one million barrels of oil per day that Venezuela is capable of exporting disappeared from the global oil supply, it could generate a modest upward tick in oil prices. One million barrels per day represents approximately 1.5 per cent of the global export market for crude.
Canadian producers ought not to fret about US-controlled Venezuelan oil pushing them out of the US oil market. American efforts at regime change, taking control of Venezuela’s inefficient oil industry and coping with any accompanying civil unrest are likely to succeed about as well as they did in Iraq.
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A bit of perspective
Before we get overly alarmed by the disruptions associated with the today’s oil wars, a bit of historical perspective might be useful. The Tanker War between Iraq and Iran in the Persian Gulf from 1981 to 1988 provides a good example of what can happen to oil prices in response to a steep and significant supply shortfall.
During that eight-year Tanker War, Iraq launched 282 attacks on ships in the Gulf and Iran accounted for another 168 attacks. Most, but not all, of the vessels attacked were oil tankers. At least six of the ships sank, dozens caught fire, were severely damaged, ran aground or were disabled. An estimated 430 crew members lost their lives, including 37 sailors on the US missile frigate Stark.
The missile frigate USS Stark after being hit by two Exocet missiles fired from an Iraqi jet fighter on May 17, 1987 during the 1981-1988 Tanker War. The attack killed 37 US sailors and injured 21. Photo credit US Navy.
One of the more severely damaged tankers was the Seawise Giant a ULCC “super tanker” which at the time was the largest oil tanker in the world and the largest ship ever built. The ship was hit by bombs dropped by the Iraqi air force 14 May 1988. Initially the ship was considered a total loss, although it managed not sink. However, after undergoing repairs the ship returned to service in 1991.
The world’s largest oil tanker in 1988, the Seawise Giant, being towed from dry dock at Dubai. Photo credit: Wikipedia public domain.
The Tanker War was one in a series of connected violent conflicts which began with the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Those conflicts contributed to the second World Oil/Energy Crisis (1979 to circa 1985) and set off a severe global recession (1981-1989).
The 1979 revolution crippled Iran’s ability to produce and export oil, causing a prompt 4 per cent drop in global oil production. The tightened supply conditions caused the international price of crude to more than double from $14.48 per barrel in 1979 to $37.38 per barrel in 1980.
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The revolution was almost immediately followed by a lengthy war between Iran and Iraq (1980-1988) and the associated Tanker War between the two counties. The supply disruptions continued in concert with the ongoing conflicts between the two countries, preventing oil prices from falling very steeply until 1985.
Prices dropped off the proverbial cliff in 1986, falling by nearly 50 per cent. The sharp decline in prices after 1985 was due in part to new supplies coming on stream from places like the North Sea and the Alaska North Slope.
Clearly Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil exports and US tanker seizures in the Caribbean are rather minor dust-ups compared to the Tanker War of the 1980s. But all that could change in 2026. After all it only took a 4 per cent decline in the global production from 1979-1980 to produce a doubling of the price for crude oil. And there is no shortage of geopolitical turmoil available to shake things up in unexpected ways.
Of course there is also a chance that peace will miraculously break out between Russia and Ukraine and between Donald Trump and Venezuela. If that happens, the foregoing analysis will become embarrassingly redundant.
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- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
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- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
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- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
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