Enbridge’s Alberta Clipper project in 2008, approximately 100 km northeast of Weyburn
The results of the 2025 federal election underlined the critical role electoral politics plays in determining the fortunes of Western Canada’s conventional energy sector.
Pierre Polievre’s record on natural gas and petroleum policy during his two plus years as Leader of the Opposition convinced most people in Saskatchewan and Alberta he supported expansion of those industries and the construction of pipelines from the prairies to one or more of Canada’s coasts. It seems reasonable to assume that had Poilievre become prime minister getting one or more of those pipelines approved and built would have been a comparatively seamless process.
Instead we’ve had to settle for Mark Carney and Bill C-5, the “Maybe a Pipeline Bill.”
Only twice since he announced he was running for the Liberal leadership on January 16 has Carney unequivocally stated in public that he would support a proposal for an oil pipeline from the prairies to tidewater.
While in Kelowna on February 12, Carney told reporters “We as a nation need to build some new pipelines for conventional energy.” Speaking to a group of Liberal supporters that day Carney said he would “use all of the powers of the federal government, including the emergency powers of the federal government, to accelerate the major projects that we need in order to build this economy and take on the Americans.”
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But wait, five days later he told reporters that those emergency powers wouldn’t apply to Quebec. He told Radio Canada, “I would never impose (a pipeline) on Quebec.” Carney doubled down on his change of heart during the Liberals’ French leadership debate on February 24—Quebec would have a veto over any proposal to build a pipeline across its territory.
The second, and as of today the last time, the prime minister publicly indicated he was onside with supporting an oil pipeline to tidewater was on July 5 at the Calgary Stampede Pancake Breakfast. Carney stated that he would support a proposal for an oil pipeline from Alberta to the coast if such a proposal came forward under the auspices of Bill C-5. Presumably he was referring to the West coast or perhaps Hudson Bay, because he has not gone back on his promise to grant Quebec a veto over a revived Energy East proposal.
It was hardly an unqualified endorsement. The prime minister has previously indicated approval will depend on whether or not Alberta’s oil sands producers commit to investing billions in a carbon capture and storage project. Furthermore, one section of the bill indicates proposals must comply with the duty to consult First Nations. That was to be expected. However, the section of Bill C-5 indicating what sorts of proposals are likely to be approved states a project must “benefit” First Nations. What that might mean is anyone’s guess. You would think a nation building project of significant economic importance to the country would benefit all Canadians including Indigenous citizens.
As they say, elections have consequences.
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Supporters of conventional energy are in much better shape when it comes to politics in Saskatchewan. Scott Moe has made doubling the province’s oil production to one million barrels per day one of the Saskatchewan Party government’s priorities.
What’s more the province has announced that SaskPower, in defiance of federal policy, will not be shutting down its coal-fired electrical power generating units at Estevan and Coronach by 2030. It is a bold move that must have heads exploding in Ottawa. When Canada’s environmental activists groups were condemning the oil sands over the CO2 footprint of bitumen, coal was hardly ever mentioned. They assumed coal was so far beyond the pale of environmental decency it wouldn’t require a billion dollar smear campaign to kill coal-fired power generation.
Environmental activists would have been pleased had Saskatchewan’s provincial government behaved like Alberta’s NDP government did back in the 20-teens. Rachel Notley and company agreed to end coal-fired electricity production 15 years ahead of the federal deadline. That being said, with abundant natural gas in the province, conversion from coal to gas powered generation made more sense than it would for Saskatchewan.
The Saskatchewan NDP’s support for policies that benefit oil production is welcome. However, it is almost always reactive. They will hold their noses and support the petroleum-friendly measures put forward by the government but rarely if ever come up with any of their own. It seems pretty clear their hearts just aren’t into fossil fuel. They claim to be onside in part because saying otherwise would damage their electoral prospects.
As things stand today there would be no net benefit to the conventional energy sector if the province changed its governing party in the next election. Unfortunately, the Saskatchewan Party government is getting pretty long in the tooth. And longevity in office has its downsides. One of them is that the pile of negative baggage governments carry on their backs gets bigger over time. Another challenge is the tendency for long-serving governments to become stale when it comes to generating new ideas and enthusiasm.
The Saskatchewan Party government’s problems are far from being beyond repair. Serious efforts to reinvigorate the party could include rethinking its mission through meaningful consultation with voters; especially residents of the largest urban centres. Launching a campaign to attract new supporters and quality candidates in Regina and Saskatoon would be a good start.
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