Jim Warren is a recovering academic as retired adjunct professor and lecturer in environmental sociology at the University of Regina.
Ursula von der Leyen, addressing the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2026 at Davos. Image: World Economic Forum/Jakob Polacsek
In the year prior to the outbreak of the latest war in the Persian Gulf, it looked like the climate alarmist agenda was in trouble. A consensus was emerging among geopolitical analysts, namely that the emissions reduction goals identified in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change would not be achieved.
For die-hard emissions reduction crusaders this meant governments needed to double down on their efforts to drastically reduce the use of fossil fuels while toughening legislation forcing consumers and industry to adopt renewable energy technology.
Not a chance. Even in Europe, home to the world’s most sanctimonious and aggressive emissions cutters, governments were cooling their jets. Europeans could no longer buy relatively inexpensive Russian gas and the economies of many EU member states had suffered because of it. Substantial costs were incurred developing alternative energy sources and new LNG import facilities. Energy costs soared, contributing to increases in the cost of living.
There was a consumer backlash against expensive emission reduction programs and policies like electrical vehicle mandates that threatened to destroy Europe’s automotive sector.
For governments, the worst thing about consumers is that they vote. The electoral fortunes of political parties who had championed the green transition declined in local and national elections, while support grew for populist parties that rejected the campaign for net zero by 2050.
- 0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube
- 0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_
- 0120 2026 SK oil show attendee0120 2026 SK oil show attendee
- 0118 IBEW 30 sec0118 IBEW 30 sec
- 0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P
- 0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY
- 0114 Prospera Bold Vision0114 Prospera Bold Vision
- 0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended
- 0100 Turnbull Project Manager0100 Turnbull Project Manager
- 0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p
- 0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD
- 0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it
- 0092 Turnbull projects big and small0092 Turnbull projects big and small
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001
Governments responded by extending emissions reduction target deadlines. Policies requiring consumers to adopt energy saving technologies like heat pumps and electric cars were pushed into the future. Even the UK’s Labour government began to rethink its ban on the development of new oil and gas fields in the North Sea.
It was starting to dawn on green policy makers that they had been overly ambitious. They had tried to do way too much, way too fast. Engineering the green transition would have been a huge challenge in buoyant economic times. It would become virtually impossible by 2025. Since 2022 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, governments in Europe have been haunted by the threat of a severe recession caused by higher energy costs and expensive green transition subsidies. As a consequence, sensible Europeans have come to accept that they need to put some of their climate goals on the back burner.
For example, prominent European Leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, president of the powerful European Commission now concedes that EU member states had done some really stupid things in their rush to save the planet from global warming. von der Leyen especially regrets the decisions taken years ago by several governments to abandon nuclear energy as a source of low emissions electricity.
FILE – A view of the closed nuclear plant of Biblis, Germany, south of Frankfurt, on March 16, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
Michael Probst
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, Europe’s environmental activists and Green parties demanded action on emissions reduction to combat climate change and the closure of Europe’s nuclear power plants. Actually, Europe’s environmentalists had been on the anti-nuclear bandwagon for years prior to becoming climate alarmists.
- 0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube
- 0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_
- 0120 2026 SK oil show attendee0120 2026 SK oil show attendee
- 0118 IBEW 30 sec0118 IBEW 30 sec
- 0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P
- 0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY
- 0114 Prospera Bold Vision0114 Prospera Bold Vision
- 0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended
- 0100 Turnbull Project Manager0100 Turnbull Project Manager
- 0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p
- 0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD
- 0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it
- 0092 Turnbull projects big and small0092 Turnbull projects big and small
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001
As a rational person might well imagine, killing off Europe’s nuclear industry while simultaneously fighting to reduce CO2 emissions turned out to be a self-defeating policy cocktail. In 2000, German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder needed the support of the Greens to keep his minority government in office. Schröder caved to Green demands that his coalition government adopt radical anti-nuclear measures. Over the course of the next 22 years all of Germany’s approximately 30 nuclear power plants were decommissioned. The last of them were shut down after Russia had invaded Ukraine and Europe lost its supply of Russian natural gas.
As is the case with emissions reduction programs the world over, environmentalists convinced policy makers they could readily abandon nuclear energy and fossil fuels because renewables, solar and wind power in particular, would be coming on stream so quickly. Not only that, renewables would reduce energy costs so much that Germans would barely miss natural gas, coal and petroleum. This, of course, turned out to be false.
Bekevar Wind Energy Facility, Nov. 15, 2024. No wind meant not one turbine was turning. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
Prior to the US and Israel starting their war with Iran, the green agenda including the assault on conventional energy was in serious trouble. Sure, die-hard climate crusaders like Mark Carney continued to behave like all was well with the net zero project and remained committed to the cause. But other world leaders like von der Leyen, were admitting certain emission reduction measures had done more harm than good.
Now there are geopolitical analysts like Peter Zeihan who contend the war in the Gulf stands to massively disrupt global petroleum and LNG markets in ways we don’t yet understand. For example, Zeihan has speculated that if the price of gasoline approaches $10.00 per gallon Donald Trump will assert control over US export levels and impose a domestic price for oil that is considerably less than the world price. Zeihan says that is a bad idea which will only exacerbate the worldwide economic crisis. Of course that is not the sort of possibility likely to inhibit Trump.
- 0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube
- 0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_
- 0120 2026 SK oil show attendee0120 2026 SK oil show attendee
- 0118 IBEW 30 sec0118 IBEW 30 sec
- 0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P
- 0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY
- 0114 Prospera Bold Vision0114 Prospera Bold Vision
- 0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended
- 0100 Turnbull Project Manager0100 Turnbull Project Manager
- 0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p
- 0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD
- 0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it
- 0092 Turnbull projects big and small0092 Turnbull projects big and small
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001
Do you hear the echoes of Canada’s old NEP?
Some anti-oil and gas environmentalists are already taking victory laps. They contend high oil prices and insecure global supply chains will encourage countries that lack their own sources of conventional energy to get back on the renewables bandwagon. But as history has shown, building an energy system based solely on renewables is close to impossible.
A complete transition to renewables will be expensive and won’t happen overnight. Most likely the war and its residual impacts will be over before countries lacking their own oil and gas have accomplished their green transitions. That means they will gladly resume buying gas and oil as soon as they become available and affordable.
As the war goes on, several Asian and European countries will be getting poorer. And there is a good chance there will be a worldwide recession triggered by the war and the shortage in the global supply of petroleum and LNG.
Some mainstream media commentators have said people may be exaggerating the impact of the increase in the world price for oil that has accompanied the war. In recent weeks the prices for WTI and Brent Crude have ranged from around $95 per barrel to $105 per barrel.
- 0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube
- 0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_
- 0120 2026 SK oil show attendee0120 2026 SK oil show attendee
- 0118 IBEW 30 sec0118 IBEW 30 sec
- 0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P
- 0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY
- 0114 Prospera Bold Vision0114 Prospera Bold Vision
- 0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended
- 0100 Turnbull Project Manager0100 Turnbull Project Manager
- 0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p
- 0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD
- 0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it
- 0092 Turnbull projects big and small0092 Turnbull projects big and small
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001
By way of comparison, WTI crude was selling in the $100 per barrel range each year from 2011 to 2014; it hit $106.19 per barrel on March 2011 and was at $106.07 per barrel in June 2014. An interesting take away from the comparison is that we did not fall into a global recession during the March 2011 to June 2014 period.
What is substantially different today is that the economies of many of the world’s rich countries are already in a weakened condition due to problems like the disruption caused by Trump’s trade war. No less important, is that many countries in Asia including, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea no longer have access to the Middle Eastern oil they traditionally relied upon. Once the oil and gas reserves available in countries like Japan and South Korea are exhausted their economies could be in real trouble. Similarly the spike in gas and oil prices will put a lot of stress on several European countries.
The truth is nobody really knows exactly what to expect. Much depends on how long the war lasts, how long critical waterways remain restricted and the length of time it takes for the residual fallout from the war to work its way through the global economy.
One thing we can be certain about, is that when it comes to the battle between the climate alarmists and supporters of conventional energy the ground has shifted. Prior to the war in the Gulf it was quite reasonable to assume the champions of net zero were in retreat. Today, there are likely climate change activists who think that is no longer the case. They’re planning for a comeback. At this point nobody knows for sure whether or not that is what the future holds.
- 0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube0122 SASPO-2956_Safety_2026_Youtube
- 0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_0109 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_
- 0120 2026 SK oil show attendee0120 2026 SK oil show attendee
- 0118 IBEW 30 sec0118 IBEW 30 sec
- 0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P0119 Steffes Group System III Ltd Complete Dispersal P
- 0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY0115 SaskPower SASPO_2817_PLT_Recruitment_DIVERSITY
- 0114 Prospera Bold Vision0114 Prospera Bold Vision
- 0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended
- 0100 Turnbull Project Manager0100 Turnbull Project Manager
- 0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p
- 0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD
- 0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it
- 0092 Turnbull projects big and small0092 Turnbull projects big and small
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan Teaser
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001