… and how all this ties into increasing oil production while leading to nuclear

 

Editor’s note: I’ve been sitting on this story since April, waiting for the time to be right. There’s lot going on in SaskPower’s and Saskatchewan’s power futures, and how wind, natural gas, coal, oil and nuclear impact each other and play a part needs some deep discussion. Fortunately, that happened on April 8 when the Legislature’s Standing Committee on Crown and Central Agencies looked at SaskPower.

 

Wind made up 27 per cent of Saskatchewan’s power generation on Sunday, June 8. And while that’s notable, what’s more significant is how it relates to coal and natural gas-fired power generation, and beyond that – to additional oil production aiming for a million barrels per day in Saskatchewan, and nuclear power development.

According to SaskPower’s Where Your Power Comes From webpage, wind averaged 666 megawatts over 24 hours out of a nameplate capacity of 817 megawatts. That’s an average of 81.5 per cent of capacity, one of the higher numbers Pipeline Online has observed since the page was set up in September 2022.

It was a notably low demand day, with an average demand of just 2,442 megawatts. Because this time of year typically sees low demand due to mild temperatures, requiring neither high heating or air conditioning demand, power utilities typically do most of their heavy maintenance. It’s known as the “shoulder season.”

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When the wind went up, we turned down the natural gas, not coal

Another remarkable thing about June 8 was that coal-fired power output actually surpassed natural gas-fired power generation, producing an average of 798 megawatts versus 704 megawatts over 24 hours. This exceedingly rare situation was was due to the high amount of wind, but also the fact natural gas generation is generally more flexible and responsive than coal.

There’s another factor, too – cost. Since the government of Saskatchewan owns most of the coal used in power generation in Saskatchewan, and burns it in its own plants, it charges itself next to nothing for that coal. In 2024, coal royalties were just $25 million, according to Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison several months ago. That compares to $366 million in 2024 spent on natural gas (when gas prices averaged a very low $1.50 per gigajoule), and $449 million spent on natural gas in 2023, according to SaskPower’s 2023-24 annual report.

In 2024, SaskPower’s fuel cost for coal was $296 million. That was essentially what it paid to mine the coal it burned, since as noted above, $25 million was paid for the coal itself in the way of royalties. Those royalties were paid to its owner, the Government of Saskatchewan. Since SaskPower, owned by the province, is paying the province for that coal, as the minister explains later on, the price of the coal is effectively “zero.”

Up until recently, when wind or hydro production picked up, it made more sense to turn down coal output as opposed to natural gas, because of the much higher carbon tax penalty due to higher CO2 emissions. As lignite coal produces roughly the CO2 compared to combined-cycle natural gas, it therefore incurred roughly twice the carbon tax penalty. That carbon tax was $80 per tonne up until March 31, $95 per tonne after April 1. But in recent months, Premier Scott Moe said this province would no longer be collecting the industrial carbon tax, so that equation seems to have changed.

Now it appears to be cheaper to burn coal than natural gas, and that’s before LNG Canada goes online, with a very real possibility it will increase natural gas prices. Indeed AECO future prices for natural gas going until 2029 indicate we’re at the lowest prices we can expect for the next four years. Starting this winter, gas price futures for the next three years are expected to range between $2.75 and $4 per gigajoule, more than double the $1.50 per gigajoule average price SaskPower paid in 2023-24.

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Minister explains coal’s price is “zero”

In the Legislature’s Standing Committee on Crown and Central Agencies on April 8, Harrison got into a lot more depth.

He said, “I can tell you, Mr. Chair, I know what the price of coal is today because it’s the same price that it was 20 years ago, and it’s the same price that it’s going to be 30 years in the future.

“And that price is zero, because we own it. So we know what the price is going to be. And there’s a royalty, but nominal royalty that’s charged along with that, that goes back to the public of Saskatchewan because the people of Saskatchewan own the resource.

“When we’re importing 92 per cent of our gas to burn in our gas plants, where does that royalty go? It goes to North Dakota. It goes to Alberta. It goes to British Columbia. It doesn’t go here. And what is the price of gas going to be in 20 years? If you can answer that question, you should be sitting on a commodities desk in New York, not answering the question, listening to me talk, because we don’t know what it’s going to be.

“But I can tell you this — it’s probably going to be higher. It’s probably going to be higher. You know, Henry Hub price I think is, you know, well over $4 for gas. I didn’t look what it was today. But it’s, you know, over four bucks a gigajoule or an MMBtu [million British thermal units]. Essentially the same measures. They’re a little bit different, but essentially the same price. It’s been as high as nine. Is it going to be one? We don’t know. But I do know what coal costs. And I also know what the capital cost of coal is going to be because they’re already built and they’re already amortized. So the cost of the life extensions . . . We are going to be talking about that a bit more in detail, but it’s a fraction of new build gas. So these are the discussions and these are the decisions that we are making.”

 

This is where Harrison referred to the Government of Saskatchewan and SaskPower’s consideration of rebuilding the conventional coal-fired power generation fleet, instead of shutting it down in four years, six months and 18 days from today, June 12, according to federal regulations.

Harrison continued, “And the flippancy with which the federal government said, “You’re transitioned out now. You’re done. We’re going to train you for a green job of the future.” I’ll tell you, I have a hard time even being civil when talking about some of these things, because you listen to a Liberal cabinet minister. You listen to Wilkinson or Guilbeault. Well it’s like flipping a switch. “Yeah, these people, who cares? We can train them for a green job of the future.” Well what the heck is that? Give me a break. And the amount of . . .

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He continued, “And the amount of resources that have been allocated for this, Mr. Chair, by the Government of Canada have been minuscule to none. Literally allocated nothing for these communities, which will be, in the case of Estevan, devastated, in the case of Coronach, done. Nothing. So these are decisions that we take extraordinarily seriously. And you know, I’ve been pretty open about what my preference is on this. We haven’t made a final determination. When the announcement’s made, the announcements will be made. But I think people need to and deserve to have an understanding of the considerations that the government is putting into and the care that the government is giving to make sure that we’re going to make the right decision on this going forward, regardless as to what the Government of Canada or frankly the opposition here have to say about it.”

 

Coal life extension costs

NDP SaskPower Critic Aleana Young asked what the cost would be of life extension for a coal plant. Harrison wouldn’t give an exact figure, but said, “I’m not putting the dollar figure on it right now, but I can tell you it’s a fraction. Like less than a quarter.”

Young asked, “What investment is being made this year into engineering design procurement for the coal refurb project announced by the government?”

Harrison responded, “So we have done significant work on analysis, both within SaskPower but also with outside consultants on determining the health of the units which, you know, I alluded to earlier and I talked about publicly as well. I mean, I’ve used the number in a number of different public forum, including at the SARM convention.

“I talked to The Globe and Mail about this as well, and they reported it a little bit wrong, but the point was that these units are in very, very good condition — 80 to 87 per cent health — which, you know, again really does speak to the care and the pride that our employees, SaskPower employees have had working on these facilities.”

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Unions

Harrison said, “And I would say as well to this point, it’s been really a pleasure, and I would say that it’s been a huge benefit working very closely with IBEW [International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers] as well, who are the front-line, on-the-ground operators and have been great, great supporters of the direction that we’re working towards here, have provided incredibly insightful thoughts and observations and just really first-hand experience with a lot of elements that go into this.

“There are a lot of . . . This is very complicated. I mean this is not an easy thing to do. We have done coal life extension before. We did . . . On Boundary Dam 3 a part of the carbon capture addition was a life extension on the unit itself. Yeah, we’ve done life extensions as well earlier. Poplar River has been life-extended. So you know, we do have experience in doing this. We do know.

“But we’ll be kind of getting into some of the nuts and bolts when we get there, which is not tonight. But you know, all that being said, what I really do believe to be of significance and importance for — you know, this is thousands of people whose livelihoods and jobs depend on this — is that they have an understanding of the thought and care that their government is putting into this, and their employer in SaskPower.

“And all of the jobs that are associated with that decision, including those out in the field with our coal miners, and all of the businesses that really depend on these very, very good jobs continuing into existence. So I have yet to hear though whether the opposition actually support this.”

It should be pointed out that prior to being elected as an MLA, Young used to work for the Petroleum Technology Research Centre specifically in the field of communications for carbon capture, utilization and storage on the Aquistore project.

 

Carbon capture and a million barrels per day

Young asked, “I was reminiscing earlier with the Minister for — or at her, I should say — for Rural and Remote Health about my time working on the carbon capture project at Boundary Dam 3. And I used to tour folks around that place with SaskPower officials and members of the minister’s government back in the day. It’s an exceptional facility.

“But again it was a really specific question about what, if any, investment is being made this fiscal into engineering design procurement for the coal refurb project announced by the government. I didn’t hear a dollar figure from the minister. So I could ask in another way. What, if any, capital spending has been targeted to this project for this year? And I’d also like to ask whether this government has changed and whether carbon capture technology is being reconsidered by this government when it comes to coal.”

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Harrison responded, “So with regard to capital allocation, that’s dependent on us making the final determination and announcement about direction. So I can assure members and assure employees at SaskPower that if an announcement is to be made, that we are going forward. There will be significant allocations of capital for the life extension project.

“With regard to carbon capture, I would say this. SaskPower have done really a remarkable job in proving out, working through technical challenges on this as well. I mean this is a first of a kind, working through technical challenges on the technology to the point where, you know, we have a very well-operating unit at Boundary Dam 3.

 

“And we talked a little bit about that in the opening remarks, but a unit really that has a very high degree of availability, you know, one of our most reliable units right now actually that is doing what it was designed to do, you know, at record levels. I think even our last quarter was probably the best quarter we ever had actually for the operation of Boundary Dam 3.

“But I’ve also said this on the record with regard to, you know, potentially life-extended coal units and the addition of carbon capture technology. I mean we’re going to be looking at the economics. The numbers have to work on all of this, and that will be the lens through which we are making determinations on the feasibility of additional carbon capture units.

“And by the economics what I really mean is, are we going to be able to use the carbon captured in such a way that we’re going to be producing more oil? I mean that’s what it really comes down to through enhanced oil recovery and working with our producers, you know, in the Weyburn-Estevan area to use that CO2 to produce through that EOR [enhanced oil recovery] process. And it’ll be a little different for different companies, but you use that resource for enhanced oil recovery.

 

“And we have an objective of getting to a million barrels per day of oil production. That’s going to mean that we need to do some innovative things to get there. Part of that could be using carbon captured through life-extended coal units, but those will be decisions that will be taken in the context of, you know, the condition precedent decision, which is around life extension. And then subsequent to that, you know, we would be looking at the economics around carbon capture.

“But those would be decisions made for reasons of economics, and they would be decisions made for reasons of producing more oil, which really at the end of the day means more revenues for the people of the province. So that will really be the lens.

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Small modular reactors

Young said, “I’m not sure how you get to a million barrels per day without a significant implementation of enhanced oil recovery, and CO2’s obviously one of the key drivers for that.

“Looking at the coal rebuilder refurb, how does this impact the timelines for SMRs? And I’m interested in particular what labour market opportunities or challenges might exist with potentially rebuilding the coal fleet alongside a nuclear build-out, potentially in the same general geographic location.”

Harrison said, “The short answer to whether a coal life extension will impact timelines from SMRs is, absolutely it does not. Our objective is to get to nuclear power production, which is what I really started this entire discussion around, which is the long-term vision and future for SaskPower, is getting to nuclear.

“And you know, we’re waiting on OPG [Ontario Power Generation] who are our partners in this project, Mr. Chair. They are the leads. They are, you know, in the process right now at Darlington. The construction process has been initiated at Darlington. We’re going to have a better idea around the cost.”

 

(Since this discussion in April, OPG has announced it is going ahead with the construction of four GE-Hitachi BWRX-300 SMRs, the exact same model SaskPower is considering. The expected cost is $20.9 billion. For context, the entire Saskatchewan provincial budget for 2025 is $21 billion – almost exactly the cost – before overruns – of four of those reactors. And Saskatchewan would need five to fully replace its coal fleet)

While in committee in April 8, Harrison continued, “Relatively near future we are hoping to have the class 3 engineering numbers. Already those have been delayed, delayed probably five or six months so far from OPG. That will give us a much more clear picture of what the actual cost, on unit, you know, 289. I mean that’s really what we’re going to be looking at on a lot of this.

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Nuclear objective

Harrison said, “So you know, the other thing though I’ve talked about publicly as well is the objective being nuclear. The objective isn’t necessarily going to be just SMRs. I mean we’re also keeping an open mind to other potential nuclear options, and that could include large-scale nuclear. We’re going to keep an open mind on these things. There isn’t necessarily just one path here.

“We’re going to be looking at options that make sense for the company but, you know, more importantly make sense through the lens of affordability and reliability. But also through the lens of energy security, power production security, in that 25 per cent of the world’s uranium is here. Much like the argument I just made about coal — that’s what we got. The other thing we got is uranium, and that’s why we need to get to nuclear in the longer term. And as much of the in-between from mining to power production, we need to have here too.

“And I would give credit to a number of folks who have been doing a lot of work and a lot of thinking on this. SIMSA’s [Saskatchewan Industrial and Mining Suppliers Association] been a great partner in all of this; the Sask Chamber. I mean you’ve heard about it. I wasn’t at the conference today, but I’m sure that was a significant part of the conversation.

“A lot of work has been done on nuclear supply chain, on workforce development. I can tell you the company has put a lot of work into workforce development, starting now. This is not something you can just start when you make a go/no-go decision on a project. You need to start this significantly in advance. And I look at this as an all-of-the-above approach for the power production but also for a labour market. It’s not that you can do one or the other.

“I mean I think there’s a lot of opportunity for tradespeople to work on a whole number of different projects. There obviously are different certifications required with regard to working in that nuclear space, but Sask Poly have put a lot of work into this. You know, our post-secondaries more generally have put a lot of work into this.

“But really I would say that we have in government through SaskPower, through ICT [information and communications technologies], there’s been a lot of thought that has been put into the development both of the labour market side, but also in how do we create the nuclear supply chain and maximize nuclear supply chain here in this province where it should be, and frankly where it should have been for the last four years. And I won’t get into the whole history about why it’s not, but it should be. And government of the day chased it out, and it was very unfortunate that that happened.

“So we’re starting from a place I wish we weren’t necessarily just being on the resource extraction side of it, but we are very committed to getting the value-add on the supply chain. And as we look at nuclear, I would say as well that power production security, including fuel, is going to be a part of that conversation, which has become increasingly apparent, the significance of having your supply chain from start to end being as much in your jurisdiction as possible and the way the world has changed.”

 

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  0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
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  0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
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  9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
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