Here’s the full meal deal on large nuclear reactors for Saskatchewan

SASKATOON – Saskatchewan is getting serious about the possibility of large-scale nuclear power generation, with the announcement on Jan. 28 that SaskPower would begin the process of technology selection.

That’s a fancy way of saying it’s going to pick a model of large reactor it would buy and build, if the province decides to indeed go down that path.

If Saskatchewan does go down that path, and build two large reactors (you never build just one), it would be the most consequential infrastructure development in this province since the construction of the Gardiner and Qu’Appelle Dams which resulted in Lake Diefenbaker. And, fittingly enough, that’s a very real candidate for the possible site of such reactors.

Crown Investments Corporation Minister and Minister responsible for SaskPower Jeremy Harrison made the technology selection announcement in Saskatoon on Jan. 28, just over three months after he announced the Saskatchewan First Energy Security Strategy and Supply Plan on Oct. 20.

A similar announcement was made by Harrison’s predecessor, former SaskPower Minister Don Morgan, who in early 2022 announced the selection of the GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 reactor for Saskatchewan’s planned deployment of small modular reactors, or SMRs. The decision point whether to go ahead or not with SMRs is expected in 2029, with construction to start in 2030. The first electron wouldn’t hit the grid until 2034 at the very earliest. SaskPower had clearly been working on SMR development for years prior to the 2022 announcement, which in turn provides an idea of the time scales involved when building nuclear power.

First of all – what’s the difference between SMRs and large reactors? SMRs are generally considered “small” in that they have capacity of 50 to 300 megawatts, with the BWRX-300 being on the high end of the scale. And that’s “small” only if you consider Shand Power Station “small,” as it’s roughly the same capacity.

Large reactors these days are in the 1,000 megawatt scale, or more. Some units range into the 1500 megawatts size, depending on the manufacturer and configuration. And choosing that is precisely what “technology selection” is all about.

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Here’s the text of the speeches by Crown Investments Corp. Minister and Minister Responsible for SaskPower Jeremy Harrison and SaskPower president and CEO Rupen Pandya, picking up after the pleasantries:

 

Minister Jeremy Harrison:

Firstly, what I would like to do is sincerely thank our employees at SaskPower. This has been a very, very challenging 10 day period of time. We’ve had some of the highest demand and load on our grid that we have had over a sustained period of time in the history of the company! And our employees, whether they be out in the field on the lines, whether they be on the generation side, transmission, have done a remarkable job in not just keeping the lights on and power on here in Saskatchewan, but actually allowing us to export power to our neighbors, to the east, west and south at different points, allowing them to keep the lights on and the furnaces keeping their homes warm in those jurisdictions as well.

 

So this has really been a remarkable testament, and I think really underlines the irreplaceable importance of dispatchable base load power, which is a focus and has been the focus of our energy security strategy that we had announced a number of months ago. But firstly, I just really do want to sincerely thank, and I’ve had the chance to thank a number of them in person, but I want to say publicly, our great thanks to those at the company for the great work that they’ve done. And Rupen, through you to all of our our management team as well.

 

Power demand expected to double

So really, why are we here today? This is another step on our journey through our energy security strategy. We predict that power is probably going to double over the next 25 years, and internally, we’ve had discussions that it could even be higher than that over the next 25 years. Really, almost anything that we can put on the grid, we could sell. And that is a testament to a growing economy, and also the fact that we really are located at the center of the North American energy grid with incredible opportunities.

 

Which is why we’ve taken an all of the above approach on power in our energy security strategy, whether that be renewables, for which there is a role in our grid, whether that be gas, which has played the majority of the power over the course of this challenging time in the last 10 days, and coal as well, which we’re going to be extending the lives of our coal facilities as a part, along with hydro and biomass as well, which is on the grid now, in the last couple of years, as a part of our all of the above approach.

 

Nuclear power as primary baseload

What the objective is, is to transition and move to nuclear power as our primary baseload power generation by 2050. And to that end, we have already been working in a significant way on small modular reactors. We’ve made a number of significant announcements with regard to SMRs. We’re working through that siting process right now, and we’ll be probably in a position to announce a site location by the end of this calendar year for that SMR process.

 

What we also indicated in the Energy Security Strategy was that we were going to be looking at large scale nuclear in addition to and concurrent with a small modular reactor technology. So, what we are announcing today is that we are formally initiating the process to select the technology that would be that large scale nuclear design here, in Saskatchewan. That is going to be a process that we go through that will be led by SaskPower, but who we’re going to work with partners on Bruce Power and other partners who are nuclear and established nuclear operators as we move through the technical elements of that technology selection process.

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Selection criteria

So there are going to be a number of different criteria that go into that. Not a exhaustive list that I’d read, but we’re talking about deployment readiness, technology readiness, about capacity of reactor vendor to support licensing and construction in Saskatchewan, capacity demonstrated by the reactor vendor to execute and deliver on projects, willingness by the vendor to invest in global supply chains, including, in Saskatchewan, technology specific requirements, water supply, site, footprint, and a whole host of other factors that we’re going to be entrusting SaskPower to work through in that technology selection process.

 

So this is a process, though, that takes time. And you know, we estimate that, from the point of a large scale nuclear decision, it can take up to 15 years or longer, which is too long, by the way, much too long. We need to work with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission and the Government of Canada to abridge those timelines, because it is too long to get to the point of a power generation. So I think that there is opportunity and willingness to look at that. But that means we need to start now.

 

And we have been working, I would say, in a less formal context, as a part of that Energy Security Strategy looking at large-scale nuclear. But today we are formally initiating that technology selection process. This really is an enormous opportunity for this province, and as we move towards nuclear baseload generation, the home of over a quarter of the world’s uranium supply here in this province, we want to see value added to that commodity, from that mine site to the reactor that’s actually going to be producing power. And I think there is enormous, enormous opportunity for Saskatchewan, which we’ve been working with partners on already, and I think we’re already adding some value there, but there’s a lot more that we can be doing.

 

So we really look forward to the next number of months and years. I want to thank everybody again for being here and just say how excited we are at SaskPower and Crown Investments Corporation and the Government of Saskatchewan about this path that we’re on which is going to have and make a profound difference for this province into the future. So thanks so much everybody for being here.

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SaskPower CEO Rupen Pandya

As Saskatchewan’s electricity needs grow, SaskPower is planning ahead by starting a process to evaluate and assess large reactor technologies. This work builds on the Energy Security Strategy and will leverage our natural uranium resources to prepare for rising electricity demand and future export opportunities which could generate revenue for our province.

 

SMRs are an important first step towards adding more reliable base load power. But planning for large reactors must begin now to prepare for the future, it is important to recognize that large reactor projects typically take between 15 and 20 years from early planning to operation. That is why this work needs to begin in earnest, today.  We’ve been building our nuclear expertise at SaskPower by collaborating with utilities around the world through the World Association of Nuclear Operators, the Institute of Nuclear Power Ooperations and Connexus Nuclear Incorporated, and this collaboration will continue as we utilize the expertise to inform our large reactor technology selection process.

 

We will start by learning from recent technology evaluations taking place in Ontario and the United Kingdom and around the world, and we plan to work closely with Bruce Power in Ontario to learn from their recent major planned expansions and their proven experience in delivering nuclear projects in comparable jurisdictions.

Designs under consideration

Our first step is to shortlist large nuclear reactor designs that get best fit for Saskatchewan. This evaluation could include proven technologies such as Westinghouse’s AP1000, EDF’s, European Pressurized Reactor and, of course, the CANDU reactor designs.

 

All of these reactor designs are the latest the world has to offer. They incorporate modern safety systems and are held to the most stringent regulatory standards across the globe.

 

This technology evaluation will be built on lessons learned from our recent SMR technology down select process. Safety, cost, proven project delivery and technical fit, such as water supply, site footprint and nuclear fuel supply, will be taken into consideration as part of this evaluation.

 

Equally important is how this project could deliver lasting economic benefits to Saskatchewan, including building a local workforce in supply chains right here at home.

 

Our target is to identify a preferred reactor design later this year, after years of siting, and after that, we will require years of siting, regulatory and extensive engagement with Indigenous rights holders and the public before construction can begin on a new project.

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Large reactors alongside SMRs, not instead of

As Minister Harrison noted, this work is happening alongside SaskPower’s existing small modular reactor project, not instead of it, we remain fully committed to the SMR project and plan to choose a site near the city of Estevan this year to undergo further detailed evaluation. SMRs are our first step, while large reactors evaluation will support a long-term regional solution to power in Western Canada. By taking the time now to carefully assess large reactor technologies, SaskPower is ensuring Saskatchewan has the information needed to make informed decisions about the future of power for all of us. Thanks very much.

Questions

The press conference saw Pipeline Online leading off the questioning. With regards to site selection and licensing, Pipeline Online asked if large reactors were being considered for the possible SMR sites under review, or if SaskPower would have to start the whole process from scratch?

Harrison responded, “I think on the technical side, the site themselves would be a separate determination from the technology. So, if you were to make application for a different technology on the same site, there would be probably an addendum to an application. It wouldn’t be a completely new process, though, given the fact that a site already has been submitted to the CNSC, … New Darlington is an example of this, right? Because the actual SMR is right beside where the where the large nuclear reactors are located. So, you know, the actual in-the-ground sort of work that’s being done, very heavy on concrete. I mean, the actual technical components of that are not a lot different between large scale and small scale or SMR, but there would be a difference in the CNSC process, as far as the actual technology.”

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Do the feds have a favourite?

Harrison was asked if the federal government was encouraging selection of the Canadian reactor design, the CANDU? (Atkins-Realis, formerly SNC-Lavalin, purchased the CANDU from Atomic Energy of Canada in 2011 for $15 million plus royalties.) He responded, “You know what? I would say, no.

“So what I have seen from the Government of Canada has really been quite technology, technology agnostic, even with regard to any preference between SMR or large scale. We’ve had significant engagement with the Government of Canada on different elements.

“I would say this, I’ve been encouraged by the degree of support from the Government of Canada in the nuclear space. It hadn’t always been thus and I think that I’m encouraged by that.

“I said this the other day in another announcement we had done on the SMR loop. But I really view this space as being a nationally unifying project. I think that the Government of Canada view it that way as well. For industrial development in Ontario, to the existing expertise that exists in that jurisdiction, the existing expertise that exists in New Brunswick, the uranium industry that exists here in Saskatchewan, and potential for very real value-add across the country, all through the nuclear supply chain. I think this is really an area that doesn’t push us apart. I think nuclear is something that really could bring us together as a country.”

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Enrichment

Several of the designs under consideration use enriched uranium. The CANDU reactor does not, instead using natural uranium. This is why CANDU reactors can have a domestic fuel supply chain.

Asked about using a design that requires enrichment, and possible international trade complications, Harrison said, “The challenge Canada has is we can’t actually enrich uranium. We are a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and because of that, we are not, without the without the agreement of basically the rest of the world in a position to enrich uranium. That’s not going to come. I mean, other countries have gone down this path, and it’s been a difficult one.

“So that being all said, I mean, Canadian companies play an important role in the in the nuclear supply chain, including in fuel enrichment right now, given the fact that Cameco is a very, very significant player, and is a 51 per cent owner of Westinghouse using enriched uranium?

“So the degree of integration in this industry in North America, I think, is probably a bit different than some other industries in the space. So, I would say that, you know, we’re going to look at all of the technologies that come as a part of this process equally.”

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Why not just build large reactors instead of small ones?

When asked about the difference in size between large reactor designs and SMRs, Harrison explained the SMR Saskatchewan has chosen, the GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300, is 300 megawatts in capacity. The AP1000 is 1,000 megawatts (Westinghouse lists it as 1,200 megawatts). The French EPR-1400 is 1,400 megawatts.

(Atkins-Realis in recent years has begun promoting a new design, the Monark, is rated at 1,000 megawatts. It is upscaled from a previous CANDU design).

 

Harrison was asked, “Then why not go there directly?” with regards to simply building large reactors instead of starting with small ones.

He explained, “Well, I mean, that’s what we’re going to be working through. There’s a difference in cost, as well, right?

“I would say that there’s a degree of uncertainty as far as the cost of the small modular reactors. You know, there’s been an escalation, I think Ontario Power Generation’s first-of-a-kind (SMR), we’re going to have a pretty good indication of what the cost per unit, and consequently, the cost per megawatt-hour of generation is going to be.

“I think there’s less uncertainty on some of the large scale nuclears, in that they have already been in operation, other than the CANDU Monarch, which is a design, not a functioning reactor. But on the AP1000 front, there’s a number in operation and under construction around the world right now. The US government has allocated, I think, about $80 billion for backstopping AP1000 projects in the United States. There’s an EPR-1400 under construction right now as a part of the Sizewell C project in the United Kingdom. So significantly less cost uncertainty on some of the large scale. But you know, those are going to be questions that we’re going to be looking through at SaskPower.”

On SMRs, Harrison said a decision hasn’t been made on the number of units yet. When his predecessor, the aforementioned then-SaskPower Minister Don Morgan first announced SMRs back in early 2022, he spoke of up to four SMRs. But since then that number has been quite fluid. Premier Scott Moe has said that you wouldn’t build just one, so that implies two would be the minimum amount.

Harrison noted that four SMRs would be the equivalent of three of the natural gas-fired plants like Aspen, currently under construction at Lanigan.

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Interties and exports

When asked about power exports, Harrison noted the current expansion underway of the intertie to the US, from 150 megawatts to 650, and that he had been at the site just a few days prior.

He said, “We have a growing grid here. I mean, we were at nearly 4,000 megawatts of demand during the cold snap. That is only going to be increasing as we go forward over time. That’s what I talked about in my remarks. We’re estimating it could double over the course of the next 25 years.

“So a twin large scale nuclear facility at 2,000 megawatts would be about a quarter of that grid. And then you add to that an Alberta grid that is 12 or 13,000 megawatts. Manitoba, which is slightly equivalent to ours, I would say. So there’s a much different conversation as far as it relates to a large-scale nuclear project.

“I’d say as well. I think the premiers and the Prime Minister are going to be talking about it, either today or tomorrow, about interties across the country, and about the creation of further capacity to move electricity between jurisdictions. There’s a lot of nuance to how that all works, as far as the actual movement of that electricity, but I think that there is a ongoing conversation between provinces and the federal government about how we can work together in creating the capacity or opportunity for further interties and transmission across the country.”

Harrison alluded to an upcoming announcement about transmission within Saskatchewan coming in the next few weeks.

 

Price

Pipeline Online asked about the price escalation of SMRs, as the price when Morgan made that announcement was expected to be $2 to $3 billion each, but Ontario’s budget for four reactors announced last spring came in at $21 billion. Building two large reactors would be, by far, the largest expenditure this province takes on.

Asked about the cost, Harrison responded, “I’d say number one, there are still open questions about what the actual construction cost is going to be. That’s why we’ve been working very closely with OPG as far as the Darlington project and what the first-of-a-kind cost is going to be. TVA, Tennessee Valley Authority, are working through this as well with their BWRX.

“So I think we’re going to have more clarity as far as nth-of-a-kind cost for BWRX-300s in the relatively near future.

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“I think that we are going to have a higher degree of certainty, probably more quickly, on the large scale nuclear given the backstop that the US government has put in place for a large scale nuclear, particularly on that AP1000 design, which they are going to be backstopping $80 billion worth of reactors, which means that you are going to have, because of that, a functioning long term supply chain.

“And that really is where a lot of the costs come in. There are jurisdictions, in other parts of the world, who are basically building clones of the AP 1000 which you well know in China, who are making them for what they claim are $2 to $3 billion a reactor. So that’s China. So, you know, there’s obviously questions about the transparency and quality and all of that. But I think that there’s going to be a degree of clarity that’s much higher in the short term on both the SMR and on the large scale nuclear projects. I think we have a pretty good, pretty clear idea on the on the EPR design as well, because there’s been a number of those that have been constructed, too.”

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Another site for large reactors?

Pipeline Online asked, on site selection, does Harrison envision SMRs and large reactors at the same site, or does this reopen the possibility of doing something on Lake Diefenbaker?

Harrison said, “I’m not going to kind of presuppose or prejudge where the sites might be. I would say that we’re going to initiate that process subsequent to the technology selection process. There are different requirements. I mean, you know that the thermal capacity of reservoirs is a is a significant issue. So that’s going to be a part of the consideration, after we do the actual technology selection. As far as siting, so, so I don’t want to presuppose any of that, and just kind of going back to the cost.

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Other funding models

“The other thing I want to say, I don’t think that there should be an assumption that the government are going to pay for every dollar of a nuclear reactor, either. We have seen different models in different parts of the world about how reactors are financed. The UK project, the one going on right now, about 75 per cent is that is being financed by non-government organizations, including Canadian pension funds, for example, who are paying for 25-20 per cent of that that project.

 

“So what I have committed to in the government are very committed to, is that on small scale or large scale, that there is going to be a significant indigenous ownership component to that. And I see Sheldon Wuttunee here from the First Nation Resource Center of Excellence, who’s been a great partner, Sheldon, thanks so much for your partnership through this whole process. By the way, great partner on all of this.

“So I would say that number one is going to be a significant consideration. Canadian pension funds have invested elsewhere. Even Bruce, as an example, which is a Canadian Private Company, but which is owned by TC Energy and by the power Workers Union are a component of that as well, along with OMERS, which is an Ontario pension fund. So I think that there are a lot of financing models that would be in addition, I see SaskPower being the operator without question, but I think there’s a lot of different options that we’d be prepared to explore, in addition to federal government direct support as well.”

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