Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Republican presidential candidate and former president, Donald Trump, speaks during the final day of the Republican National Convention Thursday, July 18, 2024, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
The last time, that didn’t work out so well for Saskatchewan
MILWAUKEE – Former President Donald Trump’s acceptance speech of the 2024 Republican nomination had several references to energy policy. Principally, he promises “Drill, baby, drill,” but in doing so, lowering energy prices.
Notably, the Donald Trump Presidency from January, 2017 to January, 2021, did indeed see low oil prices, as those years saw some of the depths of the seven year oil downturn which devastated the Canadian oil sector. During that time, Texas oil production in the Permian Basin skyrocketed.
For approximately three of the four years of the Trump presidency, WTI was below US$60 per barrel. The highest WTI price during the Trump presidency was US$76.41 per barrel, and the amount of time it spent over US$70 could be measured in a few weeks. Much of his presidency saw oil prices in the $40s, $50s and only a few months in the $60s. Notably, in April, 2020, during the opening weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic, WTI oil prices went negative for one day.
Source: Macrotrends WTI Crude Oil Prices – 10 Year Daily Chart
While oil low prices benefited consumers and large portions of the economy, they also had a significant impact on Saskatchewan oil companies and particularly oilfield service companies. Activity levels, vendor rates, employment and employee remuneration were all deeply affected by the low energy price policies.
This impact was also reflected on the Saskatchewan provincial budget, which eventually saw a shift away from reliance on resource revenue to other forms of taxation, in particular, a broader PST. During the Trump years, the Saskatchewan provincial deficit generally almost exactly matched the fall in oil royalties paid to the province in the years prior to the oil downturn. That downturn began under President Barrack Obama in late 2014, but continued throughout the entire Trump presidency.
America did become net energy independent under Trump, although it still maintained imports of over 3 million barrels per day of Canadian oil. And Trump intended to increase that by an additional 700,000 barrels per day with the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, which he approved within a week of taking office. But widespread opposition to the pipeline and especially rulings by judge in Montana eventually put a stop the project. It never was completed, even though the Alberta portion was built.
The judge whose rulings were a major factor in the killing of the Keystone XL pipeline project was Judge Brian Morris of the United States District Court, District of Montana. Morris was nominated by President Barack Obama in 2013, but he was elevated to chief judge in March, 2020, under the Trump administration. Photo courtesy United States District Court District of Montana web page.
This time around, there was no reference in Trump’s acceptance speech to any pipeline from Canada, and there isn’t a proposal on the table, either, as TC Energy abandoned the project as President Joe Biden killed the project within minutes of being sworn in.
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Here are some excerpts from Trump’s July 18 speech, as recorded by CBS10 Boston:
I will END the devastating Inflation Crisis immediately, bring down interest rates, and lower the cost of energy—we will DRILL, BABY, DRILL, which will lead to a large-scale decline in prices.
And later on in the speech:
Republicans have a plan to bring down prices, and bring them down fast. By slashing energy costs, we will in turn reduce the cost of transportation, manufacturing, and all household goods. We have more liquid gold under our feet than any other country—we as a nation will make a fortune with oil and gas.
Under the Trump Administration, just three and a half short years ago, we were Energy Independent, but soon we will be Energy DOMINANT and supply not only ourselves but the world.
Next, we will end the ridiculous waste of taxpayer dollars that is fueling the inflation crisis. And all of the trillions of dollars that are sitting there not yet spent, will be redirected for important projects like roads, bridges, dams, and we will not allow it to be spent on the meaningless Green New Scam.
I will END the Electric Vehicle Mandate on Day One — thereby saving the U.S. auto industry from complete obliteration, and saving U.S. customers thousands of dollars per car.
I will bring auto jobs back to our country, through the proper use of taxes, tariffs, and incentives, and will not allow massive auto manufacturing plants to be built in Mexico, China, or other countries, where they send the product back to the United States, and steal our jobs, creating a hopeless situation for our companies and autoworkers.
We have long been taken advantage of by other countries, often being considered our allies. We lose jobs and revenue, they gain everything, and wipe out our businesses. I stopped it four years ago, and I will stop it again. We will not let countries come in, take our jobs, and plunder our nation.
The way they will sell their product in America is to BUILD it in America, and ONLY in America. This will create massive jobs and wealth for our country.
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