Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, left, and Ontario Premier Doug Ford pose with a map of the Northern Shield pipeline proposal in Calgary, Monday, July 6, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Call it Energy East 2.0, but kinda sorta, not really

CALGARY – Two years ago at the Lloydminster Heavy Oil Show, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith spoke of new export pipelines in several directions, most likely following existing rights-of-way as opposed to new ones. On July 6, she announced the third such project, along with Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

The entire purpose of these pipelines is accommodate the doubling of Alberta oil production.

The latest announcement, less than a week after an announcement of a new West Coast Pipeline project, heads east, with the purpose of servicing the Ontario market. While not discussed in the press release, Michigan has been working for years towards trying to shut down Enbridge’s Line 5 across the Strait of Mackinac, before any potential catastrophic pipeline failure could occur along the lake bottom of the Great Lakes.

If Michigan ever does succeed in shutting down Line 5, Ontario could literally find itself “freezing in the dark.”

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This new proposal, still very much in early stages as a feasibility study, is called the “Northern Shield Energy Corridor.” Its map shows that much of it is essentially a revival of the defunct Energy East Pipeline project, but with several differences.

First of all, Energy East was proposed by then-TransCanada Pipeline. This, so far, is new one is a multi-government proposal.

Energy East would have originated from Hardisty, gone to Empress, Alberta, (within spitting distance of the Saskatchewan border) and made use of repurposing an existing, underused pipeline within the TransCanada Mainline system. It would have spanned the country, all the way to the Irving Refinery in New Brunswick. Along the way it would have supplied Quebec refineries as well as the Irving Refinery in Saint John, with the remaining volumes exported into the Atlantic basin world markets.

And Energy East was expected to transport up to 1.1 million barrels per day. This proposed pipeline is pegged at 500,000 barrels per day, with capacity of expansion of up to 800,000 bpd.

There was no mention during the press conference or in the press release of repurposing an existing pipeline. The map indicates that this new pipeline would likely parallel the existing Enbridge Mainline from Hardisty to Regina. (It is commonplace to parallel existing rights-of-way.)

From Regina it would parallel the now-TC Energy Mainline into eastern Ontario. But the big difference is that instead of heading east into Quebec, it would hook southwest to Sarnia.

And there, not only would it supply the Sarnia refinery and petrochemical complex, it would also potentially supply a new strategic petroleum reserve, something Canada is notably lacking. And Ford mentioned not only would it be going to existing and potentially expanded refineries, but he even mentioned “new.” There has not been a new, greenfield major refinery built in Canada in decades (the tiny one near Kerrobert, Saskatchewan, built in recent years is nowhere near in the same league.)

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There were also allusions to reaching tidewater for international export. Most notably, at this time last year noises were made about the possibility of building an export terminal at the very southern tip of James Bay, most likely at Moosonee, which Pipeline Online wrote extensively about here. In that story, Pipeline Online noted, “… Ontario Premier Doug Ford talking about a deep water port on James Bay. There’s a big problem with that, however. There is no “deep water” on the Ontario shores of James Bay. At least, not deep enough for large cargo ships like oil tankers.”

But the proposed new pipeline would come within 275 kilometres of Moosonee, following an existing railbed. And, with an enormous amount of dredging, it could accommodate oil tankers, at least the smaller ones.

And there was even mention of possibly building a lateral to Churchill, Manitoba, for oil exports, although notably Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew was not part of the announcement. While Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe was acknowledged (but not present), Moe had previously made known that all pipeline projects going through Saskatchewan should be considered “pre-approved.”

As for Quebec and New Brunswick, they’re not really considerations at this point, but Ford hinted that he would like to see them eventually join in.

With reference to Saskatchewan, there is a very notable change compared to the Energy East plan. A significant part of the Energy East project would have been an on-ramp for Saskatchewan and Manitoba oil to join the pipeline at Moosomin. All maps of the project included terminal at Moosomin, and a 71 kilometre “Cromer Lateral” was planned to connect the Enbridge mainline terminal (gathering point for all southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba oil) to Moosomin.

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With major developments underway with the Enbridge Line 26 reversal, the prospects of a new Cromer Lateral are unlikely. (Pipeline Online is working on a major story in this regard – watch for it.)

So that means this new incarnation will most likely see the pipeline simply pass through Saskatchewan, although there could be the possibility of Saskatchewan oil joining it at Hardisty, the pipeline’s kickoff. Most Lloydminster area production gets sent to Hardisty via the Husky pipeline built between Lloydminster and Hardisty about 18 years ago. It all depends on what grades of product this proposed pipeline will carry – be it a consistent heavy oil, or a batched pipeline like the current Enbridge Line 5, which carries everything from light oil to propane.

Ford’s talk of a “strategic petroleum reserve” (SPR) would be a major development for Canada. While Canada is a major oil producer and exporter, the attitude up until recently has been that a strategic petroleum reserve was unnecessary, as we could supply our own needs. But since parts of Central and Eastern Canada rely on imports, and disruptions like the Iran War can impact said imports, a SPR could smooth out any disruptions. But since this pipeline would seek to displace much of those imports, it also could smooth out disruptions from Enbridge Line 5, should any occur.

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So that’s the introduction. Whew. Here’s the meat of the story:

 

Northern Shield Energy Corridor

At the press conference, Smith said, “I have also said many times that Alberta’s aim is to double our oil production in the next 10 to 15 years, and to diversify our export markets. And that means not only reaching global customers, but ensuring Canadians can benefit from our resources here at home. All Canadians deserve a stable, secure, and reliable energy supply. Alberta is ready to provide that stability and be the heart of a more energy sovereign and economically resilient Canada.

“And that vision is already taking shape as we work to make after a lost decade of anti-energy policies from the previous federal administration in Ottawa.

“After signing an agreement last year to work together with Alberta and Saskatchewan to build new pipelines through an economic corridor from Alberta to Ontario, the government of Ontario is here today to unveil a potential route for a new 3,300 kilometre oil pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario. known as the Northern Shield Energy Corridor. This project would pave the way for Alberta’s barrier-free access to domestic refineries and markets in Eastern Canada. A new East-West pipeline would move an additional 500,000 barrels of Alberta oil per day, with the potential for a future expansion of up to 800,000 barrels per day.

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Strategic petroleum reserve

Smith continued, “Energy security is essential for all countries, as we all know, and this new corridor will include the concept of a strategic petroleum reserve, or SPR, that will store vital Alberta oil reserves in the Sarnia refinery area to ensure key refined products like diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline are uninterrupted.

“There is also an opportunity to eventually use this corridor to reach the Atlantic Ocean, which would allow Alberta to provide reliable energy to our nation’s European allies.

“This project will make Canada stronger by connecting Alberta’s energy with Canadian refineries and European markets. We can create jobs, grow our economy, and make the most out of the world-class resources that we’ve been blessed with.

“Now that a potential route has been identified, the Government of Ontario is commencing work to estimate costs and examine commercial models and related development opportunities for the energy corridor.

“This pipeline is another signal to investors that Canada is once again open for business and the best country on earth from which to secure a reliable source of energy. We have so much to celebrate with this and this, the announcement from last week regarding the West Coast Pipeline, as well, and our government is supporting producers with added incentives to ensure adequate supplies of oil going west and east for this vital proposed project.”

Smith added, “The Alberta oil sands have gone from a target to a national treasure, and we’re launching the greatest expansion of oil and gas infrastructure and production in decades.”

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Ontario perspective

Premier Ford said, “We’re diversifying our trading partners, breaking down internal trade barriers, and training the next generation of workers for the jobs of the future. We’re unlocking the enormous economic potential of Ontario’s vast supply of critical minerals, with shovels now in the ground to build the roads to the ring of fire, five years ahead of schedule. We’re building the future of nuclear energy with the first small modular reactors in the G7 in the first large scale nuclear facilities in decades. If there’s one thing we can all agree on it’s this: we need to take action now to protect Canadian jobs and Canadian families. We need to move quicker, faster, immediate.

“That is why I’m thrilled to be here today, making progress on our agreement from last year as we unveil the route for the Northern Shield Energy Corridor.

“The Northern Shield Energy Corridor will include a new pipeline, built using Canadian steel by Canadian workers that will bring oil from Hardisty, Alberta to new and expanded refineries in Sarnia, Ontario, including Sarnia’s vital energy and shipping routes.

“The Northern Shield Energy Corridor would move an estimated a half a million barrels of oil per day, with the ability to expand to 800,000 barrels per day, bringing new capacity to Ontario refineries and delivering critical redundancy for existing pipelines.

“While creating good paying jobs for Canadian workers, along with the entire route, the Northern Shield Energy Corridor will create new opportunities for Indigenous people, including equity partnerships, job training, and community investments.

“I was thrilled to hear from Premier Smith announced last week her government’s plan to double oil sands production. There’s no place I’d rather bring some of that oil than right here in Alberta, shipping it over to Ontario through the Northern Shield Energy Corridor to fuel our province’s economic growth and help create new opportunities for Alberta workers.

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“It’s a win, win, win – a win for Ontario, a win for Alberta, and a win for all of Canada. While today is an exciting milestone, there’s still a lot of work ahead of us to deliver on the Northern Shield Energy Corridor.

“Ontario will continue to advance its feasibility study, including by exploring new existing port options for pipeline extensions and potential strategic petroleum reserve. We’ll define estimated cost, explore commercial options, and engage further with potential private sector partners. We’ve launched and will honor our duty to consult with Indigenous communities.

“This new route will also provide government of Manitoba and the Manitoba Crown Indigenous Corporation with the opportunity to explore the feasibility of a pipeline extension to the port of Churchill.

“The Northern Shield Energy Corridor is a critical next step in building a more united, more prosperous, and more resilient Canada. It’s a chance to create good paying jobs that will bring our country together, and it’s a chance to make our country and our continent safer or more secure. I look forward to working with Premier Smith and all my premiers to get this done,” Ford said.

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Questions – who pays?

Both governments are apparently seriously considering putting serious money into the project. One reporter asked, “Who are you planning is going to pay for this multi-billion dollar project. Are you thinking private? Are you thinking public? Do you have any companies in mind?

Ford said, “Well, we’ll look at both. That’s why we’re doing the feasibility study. We’ll reach out to private sector, but we won’t hesitate to do what the Government in Canada and Alberta is doing. So, let’s take a look at all options, and once we have an answer, and we will have this done by the end of the year, then we’ll be able to give you a straighter answer.

Smith said, “The thing to remember about pipelines is they’re an excellent investment. That’s why we have underwritten pipeline purchases and an equity state for First Nations, because they, they are revenue generating projects, and so ultimately, who pays for them is the people who use them, the shippers, they pay through tolls. And we’ve already seen that with the Trans Mountain pipeline. Yep, the federal government did front the money, but they’re now earning $1.2 billion per year to pay it back, and that’s why it’s a bit of a different type of infrastructure question than whether you’re building public infrastructure, because it is a revenue generating business.

“And so I’m looking forward. I always hope that we can have private partners come forward on this, because that also allows us to have the market discipline. But I’m grateful that Premier Ford is willing to look at all the options.”

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The reporter asked, “You’re open to it being paid for by taxpayer dollars?”

Ford replied, “Well, we’re going to do that feasibility study, and then we’ll be able to go from there. But I think it’s a great investment, no matter if it’s the government that will get a good ROI over a certain period of time. I always prefer looking at the private sector investing, and I think it’s going to be an incredible project.

“Folks, this is a historic announcement that no one would ever think in 100 years this would be done, but with a great leadership of Premier Smith, we’re able to get this agreement moving forward, and it’s going to benefit everyone, it’s going to benefit Ontarians, Albertans, and most importantly, everyone from coast to coast to coast, so that’s what we’re focused on.

“It’s going to create thousands and thousands of great paying jobs, and we have to focus on our economy. We have to make sure we’re self-reliant, self-sufficient on everything, no matter if it’s great Alberta oil coming to Ontario, or critical minerals being shipped out west and around the world, or great nuclear capabilities.

“Folks, we are an economic powerhouse around the world, and now we have to unleash that powerhouse, make sure that everyone in the world, we can ship Alberta’s oil, Ontario’s nuclear, and the critical minerals, not to mention our good friend Scott Moe, that he had to run. I love the guy. Look at potash, look at uranium, that he’s delivering.

“So it’s a Team Canada approach, and we need to make sure that we get government out of the way, support when we can. But let’s start moving. This is a race, first out of the gate, basically. And we plan, Team Canada plans on making sure we’re first out of the gate.”

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  • 9001

 

Manitoba prospects to Churchill?

With regards to Manitoba and an arctic gateway, Ford said, “Well, I think the world of Premier Kinew – I’ve said it 100 times – I think guy’s a champion, he has to consult a little more with his folks in Manitoba, but we’ll work something out, and I’m 100 per cent behind putting a pipeline up to Churchill and getting ice breakers and start delivering it around the world, so we can continue to be an energy powerhouse.

Regarding timelines and how quickly it could get built, Ford said, “First of all, we were communicating with 77 Indigenous communities, which play an absolute critical role in this, and we’re going to do this feasibility study. We’ll be back out before the end of this year, and then we’ll be able to roll it out. We’ve already put a plan together where the pipeline we’ve been actually working on this for over the last year, and we have some real, real experts in the province that put a pipeline route all the way through Ontario from Alberta through Manitoba and Saskatchewan, with the approval of obviously Saskatchewan, Manitoba.”

As for a timeline, he said, “I’ll have a better idea once we do this feasibility study, but we are going to hold back. We’re going to go full steam ahead. We have great steel companies in Ontario, and I understand so does Saskatchewan, so does Manitoba. So we’re all, we’re all going to pitch in, but we have to make sure it’s Canadian steel.”

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Where’s all the oil coming from?

Smith was asked, “You’ve got already in the works 1.2 million barrels a day with some of the expansions that have already been announced. Then you’ve got an additional 1 million barrel a day pipeline that would go to the West Coast if it gets built. Now you’re talking about an additional 500 to 800,000 barrels a day on top of that. How is the industry going to fill it, and do you think there’s actually going to be a demand for this much capacity?”

Smith replied, “Well, I think we have to look at the timeframe. I mean, I’ve said that we wanted to double oil and gas production over 10 to 15 years, and so when you think of when I made that promise, we were at 3.7 million barrels per day in production, we’re 5 million barrels per day right now. If you look at all of the projects that had at previous points been approved and gone through permitting, but stopped because we didn’t have pipeline access, that comes up to about 2 million barrels a day, right there.

“I’ve talked to a number of different companies already. Every time I meet an oil producer, I say, ‘What is your current production, and how quickly could you expand?’ And there’s some examples I can give you, so I got that question to Imperial, and they said they have 450,000 in production, they have the capacity to go to 900,000 I asked the question, did you look at Black Rod as well? They launched with 37,000 greenfield, and for SAGD, they have the ability to go up to 80,000. I talked to another oil sands producer, they said that they have a 300,000 SAGD could go up to 700,000.

So those are only three companies. So I think that if you look at how we stage it, if we get the incentives right, we get the environment right, to do new greenfield development over 10-15, years. I have absolute confidence that we’ll be able to do.

“Remember, we are one of the largest reserves on the planet. We’ve got 177 billion barrels of recoverable reserves in today’s technology. We’ve got 1.8 trillion barrels of oil in place. So I think we’ve got to think big, and we’ve got to be looking at being one of the top three energy producers and exporters in the world.”

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  • 9001

 

Domestic use or exports?

Asked if the oil through this proposed pipeline would be for domestic use or exports, Ford replied, “Well, we use 400,000 barrels a day, and if we bring in 500,000 well, hopefully we have some reserve for a rainy day, but wouldn’t it be great, folks, that we could bring this pipeline right across the country, right over to Irving? I think that’d be absolutely beautiful. It’d be beautiful for East Coast provinces, and be beautiful for the people of Quebec as well. But that’s up to them. I’m going to focus on Ontario and building this pipeline to Ontario, then it’s up to the elected officials east of Ontario to make that decision.”

Smith replied, “I’ll just say we already do take oil up the seaway from Line 9 and it gets refined in Quebec, and so this is an opportunity for us to support Quebec with existing infrastructure, and we’ll be looking at seeing whether or not those ships can make it up and over and go to Eastern Canada to feed those refineries, and whether we’d be able to go on to Europe.

“So, I think that, regardless of whether we get additional pipeline built, we do have the now access, and with additional capacity, we’d be able to increase our exports to Quebec and Eastern Canada as well.”

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How Sask going nuclear ties in

When asked about how the Pathways Alliance carbon capture project ties into all of this, Smith responded that had more to do with the West Coast Pipeline. But she added that one part of the Pathways project was to use “best available technology, and whether that’s nuclear or geothermal, that allows us to decarbonize, that’s going to be available to any operator once those routes, once those types of technologies are mature and once we built the intertwine between us and Saskatchewan, so I would say that there’s going to be an opportunity to decarbonize all of our barrels once we start moving down that pathway in the coming years.”

This is a clear allusion to Saskatchewan’s plans to develop nuclear power generation, and Alberta being a potential buyer of some of that power via the intertie expansion that Smith referenced. That announcement was made about a week ago.

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“Thanks for the nice, neutral question”

Another reporter asked, “The South Bow Pipeline to the US is fully subscribed. It has signed contracts with so many oil producers, it will be full for the next 20 years. The Carney pipeline project has no customers signed up. Isn’t it obvious that no one in the industry actually believes this is going to be built? Certainly not enough to put their own money into it.”

Smith replied, “Well, thanks for the nice neutral question.

“I would say it’s a bit premature to make that point. I think that what we’ve done with our West Coast Pipeline is announced an intention for the federal and provincial government to work together. We’ve got a private proponent, we have to make sure that we can get all of the indigenous consultation and ownership stake, make sure that we do the environmental approvals, and I have absolute confidence with the conversations that we’ve been having with the Pathways Group, that we will get those commitments.

“Remember, you can start a pipeline with a smaller amount going through it, and then you can do compression, just like we’re seeing with the Trans Mountain pipeline. They began with a little bit of a smaller volume, but they’re also increasing now up to 300,000 barrels. I think it’s our job to make sure that we can expand the industry by 2 million barrels, so not only can we fill the South Bow line, we can fill the West Coast line, we can build, fill our … new Northern Shield pipeline, and also be able to serve north, south, east, west. I mean, this is the whole point of what we were trying to do in building out economic order. So, I think it was a great project.

“We have to remember a few years ago we were talking about projects in all directions, you know, with Northern Gateway, Keystone, and Energy East, and for various reasons, for each of them, because of regulatory uncertainty, or because of permits being canceled, they ended up all stalling, so this is resurrecting all three of those concepts, perhaps on different corridors with some different partners, but I feel like the industry was there 10 years ago, they can be there again.”

Ford concluded by saying, “The previous federal government, not this one, the previous federal government treated Alberta like garbage, like terrible. I’ve never seen anything as bad as that.

“So I know that Premier Smith wants a proud, sovereign Alberta, part of Canada, and again we’re there to support her. It’s Team Canada. I’ll do anything we can.”

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====

 

 

Here’s the Government of Ontario press release, verbatim:

 

Ontario Unveils Proposed Route for Northern Shield Energy Corridor

Corridor will include new crude oil pipeline from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario to strengthen energy security, create jobs and open new markets for Canadian energy

 

CALGARY — Today, Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith unveiled the proposed route for the Northern Shield Energy Corridor, a proposed crude oil pipeline and energy corridor that would strengthen Canada’s energy security by bringing oil along a 3,300-kilometre primary route from Hardisty, Alberta, to Sarnia, Ontario. This historic nation-building project would be built exclusively through Canada, connecting the country with critical energy infrastructure to reduce Canada’s reliance on foreign markets, provide critical redundancy to existing infrastructure, bring additional capacity to refineries in Sarnia, strengthen national security and domestic supply chains and create new jobs for Canadian workers.

“Our plan to build the Northern Shield Energy Corridor is a plan to protect workers in Ontario, Alberta and every part of the country,” said Premier Ford. “We’re going to keep working to build a more secure, united and resilient Canadian economy, so we can keep Canadian workers on the job, make life more affordable for Canadian families and help get Canadian energy to new markets across the country and around the world.”

The primary route under review would lead to Sarnia, Ontario, which has refining capacity serving the Ontario market and is directly linked to existing energy and shipping infrastructure. Ontario is also exploring pipeline extensions to new and existing ports, creating new opportunities to bring Canadian oil to new tidewater to reach new markets abroad. The proposed route would also provide the Government of Manitoba and the Manitoba-Crown Indigenous Corporation with the opportunity to explore the feasibility of a pipeline extension to the Port of Churchill.

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“By connecting Alberta’s energy with Canadian refineries and markets, we can create jobs, grow our economy and make better use of the world-class resources we already have,” said Premier Smith. “Alberta is committed to working with provincial and federal partners to turn this opportunity into reality. A new west-east pipeline will connect Canadian energy with Canadian consumers while laying the foundation for future growth.”

The proposed Northern Shield Energy Corridor would move an estimated 500,000 barrels of oil per day for domestic use and export markets and could expand to up to a total of 800,000 barrels per day. By reducing Canadian reliance on oil imports, the Northern Shield pipeline could help stabilize oil prices across the country and strengthen national security. As part of the new pipeline and port opportunities, Ontario is also exploring a potential strategic petroleum reserve. The pipeline would be built using Canadian steel, supporting Canadian manufacturing and supply chains and creating jobs across the country.

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“The Northern Shield Energy Corridor will strengthen Canadian energy security and create good-paying jobs in communities across Saskatchewan and beyond,” said Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe. “Projects like these not only build our economy but also generate the national wealth we need to invest in areas such as health care, education and community safety.”

This energy corridor study stems from a Memorandum of Understanding between Ontario, Alberta and Saskatchewan, which commits these provinces to identify areas of collaboration that would protect Canadian workers, including new energy and trade infrastructure, and to continue cooperation in advancing the development of nuclear energy to meet growing energy needs.

Ontario is now proceeding to define estimated costs and examine commercial models and related development opportunities for the energy corridor, including grid upgrades and potential strategic petroleum reserves. Ontario has also initiated its duty to consult with Indigenous partners and communities, while supporting Indigenous involvement in nation-building projects with historic funding to help Indigenous Communities become equity partners. The feasibility study is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

 

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  • 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
    9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
  • 9001

 

Related stories: (I might have called it with that column a year ago)

Brian Zinchuk: What if we could do Energy East Mark 2, but without Quebec or New Brunswick?

Digging deep into the talk about shipping oil from Hudson Bay/James Bay and this week’s announcements