Dr. Chris Keefer is one of the leading nuclear power generation advocates in Canada. He’s a Toronto physician with a keen interest in nuclear power. His podcast is known as Decouple Media.
FILE – Reactors for Unit 3 and 4 sit at Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle nuclear power plant on Jan. 20, 2023, in Waynesboro, Ga., with the cooling towers of older Units 1 and 2 billowing steam in the background. Company officials announced Wednesday, May 24, 2023, that Unit 3 would reach full power in coming days, after years of delays and billions in cost overruns. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Westinghouse is going public, and the transaction will test just how Canadian the company really is.
The underlying technology is unmistakably American. Westinghouse is headquartered in Pennsylvania, its AP1000 reactor was developed and licensed in the United States, its export controls are American and its future growth is increasingly tied to US energy and industrial policy.
Westinghouse’s ownership has changed hands frequently over the last 25 years from British to Japanese and most recently Canadian corporations. Cameco currently holds 49%, while Brookfield and its institutional partners hold 51%.
That description, however, comes with an asterisk. Cameco is clearly Canadian. Brookfield has deep Canadian roots and major Toronto listings, but its asset-management business is based in New York and invests capital on behalf of institutions around the world.
Westinghouse is therefore best understood not as a Canadian nuclear company, but as an American nuclear company rehabilitated from bankruptcy with Canadian-led capital.
Westinghouse has confidentially filed for a US IPO and details are limited. We do not yet know the share count, price range, proportion of new versus existing shares, or how much Cameco & Brookfield plan to retain.
What we do know is that Washington has linked itself closely to Westinghouse through a proposed US$80-billion AP1000 buildout & a contingent economic interest that could convert into equity in the case of an IPO. The owners will probably seek a valuation within a US$25–35-billion range.
That would be a spectacular increase from the roughly US$7.9-billion enterprise value paid in 2023 by Cameco and Brookfield.
Such a valuation, however, cannot be supported by Westinghouse’s existing fuel & services business alone. Investors would be paying for the possibility that it becomes the industrial platform for a US-led revival of large-reactor construction.
New public shares, sales by existing owners & a possible US government stake would dilute Canadian ownership.
Cameco and Brookfield could remain major cornerstone shareholders, perhaps even retaining effective control at first but strategic control is about more than percentages on a cap table.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has made it clear he sees Westinghouse as an American company. If Washington supplies the financing, reactor orders, export diplomacy, regulatory support and domestic-content requirements, the company’s centre of gravity will move south regardless of whether Cameco still owns 49%, 35% or 25%.
There is significant upside to the IPO. Cameco’s stake could become enormously valuable, while Canadian uranium, and fuel services could benefit from a global AP1000 buildout.
We should not, however, confuse financial participation with the sovereign industrial control Canada has over its CANDU reactor technology. CANDU IP is owned by the federal government, corporate and engineering headquarters are firmly rooted in Canada, the fuel supply from mine to fabricated bundles is entirely domestic as is its supply chain.
If Canada is going to bankroll a large reactor program worth 100’s of billions of dollars we will need to think carefully about the return on investment to the Canadian taxpayer and worker not just during construction but over the 100 year lifespan of these assets.
Maximizing those returns will require selecting genuinely Canadian reactor technology.
Check out Decouple’s Substack here and be sure to subscribe. Saskatchewan is going nuclear, and Dr. Chris Keefer is one of the best informed people covering that industry in this country.
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