Coal Revival: Would the NDP reverse the coal decision? And why are they now big on nuclear power?

 

SASKATOON – The Saskatchewan Party now says it will rebuild the coal-fired power fleet. So what does the NDP have to say?

On June 18, the Government of Saskatchewan announced one of the largest energy policy decisions over the last decade, and likely for several years to come, when it said it would rebuild its coal-fired power generation fleet instead of shutting it down on Jan. 1, 2030. The announcement was made by way of a letter from Crown Investments Corporation and SaskPower Minister Jeremy Harrison emailed directly to SaskPower workers.

This policy change directly flaunts federal coal regulations, and the Saskatchewan Party Government has said it can do so because Section 92A of the Constitution Act says electrical power generation is in provincial jurisdiction. The Saskatchewan First Act, passed unanimously, reasserts that.

The largest threat to this new plan to maintain coal is not necessarily federal action, but a change in government that could reverse or alter the policy. To that end, Pipeline Online spoke in depth with NDP Shadow Minister for Jobs and the Economy Aleana Young in Saskatoon on July 29 to get the official opposition’s stance on coal. The interview took place near the conclusion of the Midwest Legislative Conference, which had legislators from 11 provinces and states in attendance. There was a heavy focus on energy, and nuclear energy in particular, throughout the conference.

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Where’s the plan?

Asked what the NDP’s stance on the coal announcement, Young, who has covered the SaskPower file for several years, said, “I want to take a step back, because I don’t see a plan from this government. I see a press release, but I don’t see a penny committed to any engineering, any design, any procurement work, and it’s hard to see anything real when it comes to the life of the coal plants, especially after 15 years of uncertainty.”

The federal coal regulations were brought in by the Prime Minister Stephen Harper Conservative Government in 2012, which said that coal generating units were to shut down once they reached a 50 year lifespan or by 2030, unless they had carbon capture installed.

While Saskatchewan is actively working on implementing 300 megawatt small modular reactors, the first wouldn’t be in place until 2034 at the earliest. SaskPower is currently constructing a 370 megawatt combined cycle natural gas plant, the Aspen Power Station near Lanigan, after having commissioned a nearly identical unit at Moose Jaw in late 2024 and one at Swift Current in 2019. But SaskPower would need to start construction right now on four more gas plants of that size to have enough baseload capacity to replace its existing coal fleet. Asked if Saskatchewan had painted itself into a corner, and how the NDP would have done things differently, Young said, “There’s couple things I want to unpack here.

“Let’s start with our capacity and the lack of building that we’ve done with our power infrastructure over the past 20 years. We don’t have a lot of options today for what power generation looks like tomorrow, beyond the status quo.”

In saying status quo, Young said she’s referring to coal and natural gas.

“Wind, solar, hydro, our current supply mix, we don’t have any plan or dollars committed for the future. We can’t just up and change our power on a day’s notice. It takes time to build any capacity, especially new and renewable. We need an actual plan, with dollars and timelines to have any credibility moving forward.”.

“Yes, if we started building today, we need four more Aspens to replace coal. Thousands and thousands of megawatts of renewables. We should have started building 10 years ago. Yes – we need to build out our renewable sources – wind and solar – no question. Yes – we need to build out natural gas. But that will take a bit of time. That’s part of the work, and something I’d like to talk about, part of the work that I’ve undertaken this summer, part of the work that I’m doing on building out a very different looking future supply plan for SaskPower.

“So a bit of a tease. It’s not going to be out to the fall, but we’re working with leading experts across Canada, industry experts and people right here in Saskatchewan who have very intimate knowledge of the realities of not just our generation, but our transmission and distribution system to build a plan for Saskatchewan’s future power generation and for today. One that is going to take won’t surprise you to hear me say this in all-of-the-above approach, one that’s going to be grounded in the realities of our industry, of our climate, our climate and the needs of our population.”

The following day NDP Leader Carla Beck and Young held a press conference about going all-in on nuclear, “From rock to reactor.” More details on that below.

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Can’t get off coal that quickly

Young continued, “Does it include coal in the immediate term? Yes. There’s no way Saskatchewan will get off coal by 2028. We’re not stupid.”

What about 2030?

Young said, “2030? Again, what are we going to start building in 2028 to replace 1,600 megawatts of coal in two years? It would be an immense challenge for Saskatchewan. Should we – and here’s where I disagree with the minister – and this is something else I’d like to get into. The government has said, this isn’t a rebuild of the plants. They have said that they’re in peak condition. Which is wild, considering the Sask Party’s plan was to shut them down, up until two months ago. This supposed condition is very different from what people working in Estevan and Coronach tell me.

“I’ve spoken to a lot of folks in the coal mines. I hear a lot of skepticism as well.

“The minister has also said that this is going to be a megawatt-for-megawatt replacement for every megawatt of nuclear that this province brings online, they’re going to bring a megawatt of coal offline. That’s not a rebuild of coal for Estevan.

“I’ve got the transcript for you, right from the minister’s own mouth. It was here in Saskatoon for the Crown annual reports. He said for every megawatt of nuclear brought online, they’re bringing off a megawatt of coal. That is not a rebuild of 50 year coal plants for the communities in the southeast. That is, to me, an expensive repair project for 10, maybe 12, maybe 14 years. That’s what the government is desperately trying not to talk about.

“Because if the SMR plan remains in place, which is what we have to operate with. I unfortunately don’t get the details. SaskPower doesn’t let me look under the hood. That’s what we’re working with – and it says nuclear is coming online between 2034 and 2044. If we’re taking a coal plant offline for each SMR – that’s not a coal rebuild. It’s terrible politicking with people’s lives.

“So to your point, are we going to have natural gas in our plan? Yes. Are we planning on shutting down coal tomorrow? No. Are we going to rebuild six coal plants to operate them for 10 or 15 years? No. And by their own words, neither is the Sask Party. Is nuclear going to play a role for us? Yes. Solar, wind, yes. Hydro? Yes.”

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Would NDP shut down coal if elected in 2028?

Pipeline Online asked if the NDP forms government in 3.5 years, would they shut down coal in three years? Five years? Ten years? What would the NDP do?

Young responded, “Yeah, at that point, I don’t want to get ahead of my skis. This is part of why I’m doing this work, to have a different energy plan, a different proposal, unlike the Sask Party, we’re going to be transparent with people. I’m going to do that publicly. We will release it. You can have the economics, you can have the analysis. People of this province can look at it, they can evaluate it, they can love it or hate it, but they’re actually going to have something real and substantive.”

 

Would that make for more uncertainty for the people of Coronach and Estevan? Young said, “No, I don’t think so. This is work that we’re undertaking right now. I don’t have the results. If I did, I’d tell you. I don’t have the results right now. But we’re doing this not on the eve of the election. We’re doing this well in advance, so people have ears to evaluate what this might mean for their communities, what this might mean for Saskatchewan’s power future, and it’s going to be ambitious, like I’m very excited about this work.”

“It’s going to be grounded in the reality of the province. So, it’s going to prioritize affordability for Saskatchewan people. It’s a big problem for people across all walks of life. It’s a problem for industry. It’s going to be a problem for, not just attracting investment, but retaining investment. So it’s going to have affordability at the forefront, because that’s what people tell us. It is also going to look at building out our generation capacity as well as our distribution and transmission.”

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Natural gas factor

While natural gas prices now are low, as low as zero dollars per gigajoule on July 25, AECO futures markets indicated an expected rise to a range between $2.50 and $3.75 between now and the spring of 2029. The opening of LNG Canada now exposes at least some of the market to higher prices, which may impact domestic markets resulting in higher prices, not just for consumers, but for SaskPower and its fleet of natural gas power generation. According to SaskPower, on Aug. 5, 49 per cent of power used in Saskatchewan was from natural gas. And according to Minister Harrison, 92 per cent of the natural gas SaskPower uses for power generation comes from Alberta. But he asserts that since the Government of Saskatchewan owns much of the coal burned in its power plants, that coal is effectively free, although Westmoreland is paid $313 million a year to mine it. With the potential of natural gas prices doubling in coming years, the issue of affordability becomes a factor.

Asked about that, Young said, “There’s a couple things that I want to get into there. One, I don’t have a problem with burning natural gas. I think burning natural gas is important for power generation. It’s also how we heat our homes. If the Sask Party is suddenly opposed to burning natural gas, burning natural gas that we import from Alberta, we have an entire crown and 1.2 million people who are going to have some challenges heating their homes.

She said there was no indication gas prices would double, saying, “If we look yes, natural gas prices have some volatility. If we look at the natural gas price changes over the past years, have there been some ups and downs.  Are they material to what we’ve seen historically? No, but we need to make the best decision for Saskatchewan with the information that we have.”

She sees LNG Canada as “a great opportunity for Canada, and something we have to consider that will have an impact not just on SaskPower, but on SaskEnergy as well and the relationship there. But if we suddenly in Saskatchewan, if the Sask Party has decided that natural gas is a problem, they have a massive challenge before them in figuring out how we’re going to heat our homes differently.”

“Natural gas is going to be a part of our power generation future. It’s not an either/or.”

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Assumptions on carbon pricing

Young added, “There’s a lot of assumptions in the minister’s press releases. It assumes there’s no industrial carbon pricing. It assumes there’s not going to be penalties for violating some of the international treaties, which Canada is a signatory on around coal. Folks may not like it, may disagree with it, but there are laws, professional obligations, and treaties with penalties that we are subject to. Some of those penalties are up to a million dollars a day. There are going to be costs to any decision that we make. Power is not going to be free.”

“Affordability is paramount for households and industry. And to quote a mentor of mine: industry needs three things: predictability, predictability, and predictability. Industry is increasingly skittish about the announcements being made. And if the OBPS comes back, or we’re carrying penalties of upwards of a million dollars a day, the Sask Party’s about face on our future supply mix will start to face some real headwinds from some big players.”

Sask First Act

Did the Saskatchewan First Act give the Saskatchewan government any cover? Young said, “Section 92 is a proud part of the Saskatchewan NDP history. The Sask. First Act does not empower the province to do anything that they couldn’t or could do previously.”

She added, “I believe strongly in Saskatchewan constitutional jurisdiction. Again, Section 92 was not brought in by the Sask Party, but by Alan Blakeney with his Attorney General, Roy Romanow. This is a proud part of our history. This is something we’re very familiar with, and we’re proud to defend. But the Saskatchewan First Act doesn’t change the reality of Canada or the reality for Saskatchewan. We need a plan for the short term in Saskatchewan because we can’t turn off the lights in three years. It’s ludicrous, and we’re not going to, and the Saskatchewan NDP will never propose that. We also need a longer term plan for SaskPower, for our workers, for industry, for power bills, for commodities, and that’s part of the work that I undertaken, I’m very excited about it.”

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Nuclear

This brought the conversation to nuclear. Harrison’s June 18 letter spoke of continuing to use coal as a bridge to nuclear power.

The day before Young’s interview, Premier Scott Moe took to the stage with the presidents of Cameco and Westinghouse Canada and talked about the possibility of building large nuclear reactors.

The design SaskPower is currently signed up for, however, are not large, 1,000-megawatt scale units, but “small modular reactors,” or SMRs, in the 300 megawatt range. Earlier this spring, Ontario Power Generation greenlit four units of that design, the first of their type. That type is the GE-Hitachi BWRX-300, for a total cost of $20.9 billion. For perspective, the entire Saskatchewan provincial budget passed around the same time was $21.0 billion.

That cost – over $5 billion per unit, is already over the high range that then-SaskPower Minister Don Morgan warned was possible when he made the nuclear announcement three years ago. At the time, Ontario’s minister projected those reactors would cost $2 to $3 billion each. And that $5 billion cost per unit this year is very early in the construction process. Nuclear reactors are notorious for going over both schedule and budgets.

In mid-July, Young spent the better part of a week in Ontario, visiting various nuclear power-related businesses and facilities as part of the NDP’s exploration of nuclear power generation.

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/19Nu7uk9RH/

 

 

Young said, “Is nuclear likely to be part of Saskatchewan’s power generation future? Yes. Are there real questions to be asked about why we’ve selected the technologies we’ve selected, why we’re choosing to go down the SMR route, as opposed to looking at bigger reactors or other technologies, Canadian technologies? I just spent a week in Ontario touring the entire fuel supply chain. And I saw the jobs. I saw the prosperity. I saw the big nukes. I heard a lot about the Monark reactors and some of the opportunities there.

“I left Saskatchewan to tour a Cameco facility using Saskatchewan uranium in Ontario. It’s wild to leave Saskatchewan, to watch Cameco add value, in Ontario. And I saw the prosperity in these communities, the generational prosperity. Bruce Power – they have work plans out till 2050, like if we want to talk about generation, job security and energy security. That’s it.”

So does that mean Saskatchewan should be going with large reactors instead of small ones? Young said, “We need transparency from the government. And this is a boring thing to say, right? I’m in opposition. I get to criticize. It’s my democratic obligation. But this is too big an opportunity for us to get wrong, and it is too significant a project for Saskatchewan, for the taxpayers, for our fiscal capacity, for our credit ratings, to get it wrong or to make decisions based on ideology or political convenience.

“We need to be making the right choices for the entire province, from the kookums to the babies to the weird uncles.”

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So what is that right decision, though?

“This what our plan is going to propose. Do we need to be conscious of cost? Absolutely. Do we also need to be thinking about the opportunities for value-add so Saskatchewan isn’t just an exporter of raw goods? Yes. Do we need to be thinking about the downstream economic impacts of some of these investments, making sure we are doing it to benefit Saskatchewan workers, Saskatchewan families, the communities? Yes.

“This is a real opportunity for this province. If you talk to anyone under the age of 45 they’re interested in nuclear power as they’re interested in a clean, reliable future.”

“There’s so much to talk about with nuclear, but part of what I took away from my time in Ontario and I met with workers, I met with community members, I met with labor. I also met with executives on the management side, on the industry side, and there is a … I don’t put words in anyone’s mouth, but I think across industry, there is increasing awareness of the cost associated with some of these novel SMR deployments, and there’s an increasing recognition, even amongst regular everyday people, that the price tags for, say, 1,000 megawatts of power are getting quite comparable to the price tag for two  300 megawatt units. Why would anyone make that decision? It merits debate.”

She continued, “I toured some heavy water reactors, some CANDU reactors. I toured the McMaster research reactor. It’s been operating since the 1950s, 70 years of medical research, of power, Canadian technology, Canadian uranium, Saskatchewan uranium.”

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Missing out

Young spoke about her biggest frustration in her Ontario nuclear supply chain tour. “I had the privilege of being able to tour Cameco’s Port Hope facility and for fuel processing…I basically toured the whole fuel supply chain. And leaving Saskatchewan, to fly to Ontario to tour a Cameco facility using Saskatchewan uranium to produce fuel for other parts of the world … I’m sitting there, getting a wonderful presentation from the good people there who are telling me all about the history of Cameco, and how their headquarters are in this place called Saskatoon. Asking you know, had, I heard of the Athabasca basin? And again, I saw the value-add into that supply chain being created, those jobs, that generation job security, that wealth, these six figure jobs, and the families supported by them, seeing that in Ontario and not in Saskatchewan. It was frustrating, and I think it would be to anyone from Saskatchewan.

 

 

“We’re incredibly proud of Cameco. We’re incredibly proud of what we mine and what we produce in this province, and we ought to be focused on the future and doing more with the resources that we have to add value and add jobs to those products. I’m tired of just being an exporter of raw goods.”

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Summing up coal

Summing up on coal, she said, “I think my messages are, there is no real plan from the Sask Party right now. We can’t turn the lights off tomorrow. Coal is going to be part of the near-term for Saskatchewan. But despite what the Minister wishes we’d believe, he’s talking about not a rebuild, he’s not talking about 50 years – if he still thinks nuclear is happening, he’s talking about buying maybe 10 years more for some of the coal plants.

“If you look at the information we, the public, has, which is the scheduled phase-outs of the coal plants starting, you know, theoretically two years ago with Unit Four, but rolling straight through to 2042, with Shand. And if you look at the current SMR deployment schedule, which is Sask. Power’s official information, which is what we have officially from the Crown utility, he is talking about extending the life for maybe 12 to 14 years. If the if his plan is truly to rebuild 50 year assets to use them for 12 years, there are going to be some questions about that. Frankly – that makes no sense. But we need actual information. I challenge the minister to provide a real plan, not just press releases, and if this is his plan, provide some funding in his own budgets, in the Crown’s forward-looking capital spends. But the Sask Party doesn’t have a plan. They have a press release.”

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• 9001

 

All-in on nuclear

The following day, July 30, NDP Leader Carla Beck, Shadow Minister for Crown Investments Corp Erika Ritchie and Young held a press conference in Saskatoon on nuclear power.

Beck said, “So we just wrapped up a weeklong session at the Midwest Legislative Conference. And what we saw here, and recently down in Washington State at the Pacific Northwestern Economic Region Conference is a clear signal that Saskatchewan has incredibly unlimited potential, and we have many people in this country, in the United States and around the world, looking to us to help solve some of the problems and challenges that we have, when It comes to our energy future.

“These are incredible opportunities that we can and have to capitalize on.

“So today, we’re here calling for immediate action, for concrete steps, for a real plan, for the creation and implementation of a clear and aggressive strategy to harness the potential of nuclear energy from rock to reactor.

“Yesterday, we saw Scott Moe acknowledge that nuclear energy is part of Saskatchewan’s future. What was also clear, and has been clear by his comments, is that there is no solid plan. The opportunity absolutely is real, but we need concrete action to create jobs, to drive investment and to secure our economic future; to take full advantage of this once in a lifetime, world leading opportunity.

 

“We have the resource, that’s clear, but we must develop both the nuclear supply chain and the labor force needed to make that opportunity real, to benefit people right across this province.

“Again, we know full well that we have what the world needs, uranium, critical minerals and world class companies who are leading the charge. We also have people right across this province who are eager to get to work.

“Right now, we’re shipping a lot of value-add and potential out of this province, along with that world class uranium. That’s something that needs to change. We can not only power the world, but we can also get full benefit from these resources for our prairie economy, jobs, investment right here in Saskatchewan. I want to say thank you again for joining us. This is an exciting time for our province.”

Ritchie said, “The resolution urged governments to speed up development of nuclear energy supply chains, technologies and workforce capacity, highlighting the growing demand for clean, reliable energy. And that’s exactly what we’re here calling for today.

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“But what we have seen from the Sask Party is a talk a big game about nuclear, but they have not brought forward a real plan to build industry here. Without a strategy, we’re just letting other provinces cash in on the resources we’ve developed for decades. It’s time Saskatchewan stopped settling for less, and to focus on our future where we’re in the driver’s seat.”

Beck referred to Young’s trip to Ontario, saying, “There, we’re already seeing investments at the post-secondary level to ensure that we have the labor force, we have the expertise available. We haven’t seen that here. As Aleana said, we’ve heard announcements about nuclear is going to be part of our energy future, here in Saskatchewan. We agree.

“What we don’t see is any clarity when it comes to timelines, labor force, even technology. That’s what we’re that’s not only what we’re calling for today, that’s what we’re going to build. And as Aleana said, the public in Saskatchewan is going to have the opportunity to look at that plan, to provide feedback to that plan in the fall. We’re tired of waiting. Yeah, Saskatchewan people are tired of waiting. And again, this is too important to leave to press releases. And you know, we are losing opportunity with every minute. We don’t have a plan, so we’re going to build one.”

Huge shift

This is a marked shift from NDP positions in the past. Back in 2005, then-Corrections and Public Safety Minister Peter Prebble, a member of the Lorne Calvert-led NDP cabinet, threatened to quit cabinet if the province did anything along the line of nuclear power. In a 2005 CBC article, Prebble was quoted as saying, “I would have to step down from cabinet … in the theoretical event that cabinet was to endorse a reactor or a nuclear waste disposal facility.”

“Neither is on the horizon and I don’t see that event occurring … but yes, that is where I would draw the line,” Prebble was quoted as saying.

The article concluded, “Prebble says the government should not allow a nuclear reactor or its waste in this province as long as members of the New Democratic Party are opposed to the ideas.”

 

Editor’s note: NDP Shadow Minister for Jobs and Economy Aleana Young will be the guest on the Pipeline Online Podcast on Monday, Aug. 11 at 2 p.m. You can watch live on the following:

X: https://x.com/Pipeline_Online (best option)

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pipelineonlineca

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/brianzinchuk 

If you post comments during the live stream, the hosts and guest can respond to questions or comments in realtime. 

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• 0097 Eagle Sky Ventures LTD
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• 0092 Turnbull projects big and small
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• 9001