Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Stampede Drilling Rig 22 was drilling a CO2 well between Drinkwater and Belle Plaine on Nov. 28. Entropy Inc. took over Whitecap’s Regina carbon hub project, and is apparently drilling a second well in the Drinkwater area. Photo by Brian Zinchuk.
The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC) released its 2025 State of the Industry Report and 2026 Forecast on Dec. 1, offering a look at the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping Canada’s drilling and service rig sector. The report underscores the industry’s growing role in national energy security, job creation, and emerging resource opportunities, the CAEOC said in its release.
The forecast projects 2026 wells drilled at 5,709 — an increase of 161 (2.9 per cent) from 2025 (5,548). In 2024 the total wells were 5,758, and in 2023 they came in at 5,389.
Projected 2026 drilling rig operating days come in at 59,943 — an increase of 1,687 (2.9 per cent) from 2025 (58,256)
Service rig operating hours for 2026 are projected at 1,037,301 — an increase of 32,260 (3.2 per cent) from 2025 (1,005,041).
The CAOEC does not break out numbers for individual provinces like Saskatchewan.
On the service rig side, the forecast is for a stable “workable fleet” of 600 service rigs for the whole year, with utilization at 76 per cent for Q1, 54 per cent for Q2, 68 per cent for Q3 and 67 per cent for Q4. The year-long average utilization is forecast at 66 per cent.
The average number of working rigs for the year is forecast to be 458 with a total of 1,037,301 operating hours.
For drilling rigs, the fleet is forecast to drop from 350 rigs across the fleet in Q1 to 339 in Q2, a drop of 11 rigs. But that number is anticipated to rise by one to 340 for the second half of the year.
For Q1, the forecast is for 261 active rigs, 153 in Q2, 211 in Q3 and 225 in Q4. The year-long average is forecast at 213 active rigs. That’s a increase of 6 per cent year over year from 2025. Operating days are forecast to go up 2.9 per cent year over year, rising to a total of 59,943. These numbers are based on spud to release data.
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Jobs impact
This year, CAOEC partnered with Garrison Strategy to conduct a comprehensive employment impact assessment of drilling and service rig activity. The findings better illustrate the industry’s national impact and why the sector is so vital to the Canadian economy, the organization said.
Although industry activity will hold steady in 2026, the research demonstrates the sector’s value to the lives of working Canadians. “Our industry represents paycheques for roofs over heads, hockey sticks in young hands, and dreams realized in communities across Western Canada, including rural, remote, and Indigenous areas. These aren’t abstract figures; they’re the heartbeat of Canada, the proof that our work isn’t just about extracting resources — it’s about giving Canadians a hopeful future,” said Mark Scholz, president & CEO of CAOEC.
“Based on the updated numbers, each active drilling rig supports 21 direct and 226 indirect jobs, which means that nearly 53,000 jobs will be created because of drilling activity in 2026. Additionally, each working service rig supports six direct and 64 indirect jobs, creating an extra 32,000 jobs, totalling a combined workforce of about 85,000 well-paid, highly skilled positions,” the CAOEC said.
As Scholz states: “These are not just statistics. These roles don’t merely employ; they empower — anchoring families in rural heartlands, Indigenous communities, and beyond, injecting vitality into Canada’s economy, and reinforce why the work of our members matters.”
Just how did the CAOEC come up with its dramatic increase of jobs per active rig? The report includes an explanation by Ben Brunnen, a partner with Garrison Strategy, which worked with the CAEOC on these calculations.
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Brunnen wrote:
For years, it was widely believed that each active drilling rig in Canada supported about 145 jobs. That estimate made sense at the time — after all, drilling a well involves far more than the crew on the rig floor. There are truck drivers, cementers, engineers, welders, and countless others who make the work possible.
But the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC) recognized that this figure only told part of the story. The initial estimate focused narrowly on the drilling phase, without accounting for all the work that happens before and after — from site preparation and completion to tie-in and abandonment.
To get a clearer picture of the sector’s true employment impact, CAOEC partnered with Garrison Strategy to dig deeper. The findings reveal just how vital drilling and service rig operations are to Canada’s economy.
A Bigger Picture Emerges
The analysis showed that each drilling rig supports 21 direct rig crew positions and 226 indirect jobs through related activities like site prep, trucking, hauling, and engineering. With 201 rigs expected to operate in 2025, that translates to approximately 50,000 jobs — significantly higher than the longstanding estimate of 145 jobs per rig.
And that’s just part of the story. For the first time, CAOEC and Garrison also examined service rigs, which play a critical role in completing, maintaining, and eventually decommissioning wells. Each service rig supports six direct jobs and 64 indirect jobs, or about 70 jobs per rig. With 447 working service rigs anticipated in 2025, that’s another 30,000 jobs across the country.
Together, Canada’s drilling and service rig sectors will support roughly 80,000 well-paying jobs in 2025 — a powerful reminder of the industry’s broad and lasting contribution.
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Beyond the Numbers: The Value Chain Effect
The benefits extend well beyond rig crews. Every active well drives opportunities across the entire value chain — geologists, surveyors, engineers, frac crews, heavy equipment operators, welders, truck drivers, safety specialists, camp personnel, environmental consultants, and more.
Then there’s the massive supply chain behind the scenes: rig maintenance, drill pipe and casing manufacturing, frac sand extraction, parts and equipment production, cement, lubricants, and rentals. Each link in this chain supports additional jobs and business activity across Canada.
What This Means for Policy and Growth
The takeaway is clear: supporting the oil and gas service sector means supporting 80,000 Canadian jobs — jobs that sustain families, promote innovation, and strengthen communities throughout the country. CAOEC can proudly bring this message to policymakers across provincial and federal levels as it continues to advocate for a strong, sustainable future for Canada’s energy services sector.
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Estevan Mayor Tony Sernick will be the guest on the Pipeline Online Podcast at 11 a.m. on Monday, Dec. 8. Watch Live on X:
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