Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
In this idea of reviving Energy East, the red line going to Moosonee would be about 275 kilometres of new right-of-way and pipeline. That gets you to tidewater. The second red line to the south gets you to southern Ontario along an existing TC Energy right-of-way, but would likely need to go further than that. Everything east of Mattawa could be ignored. CER original map
In recent days I’ve really been scratching my head, wondering what on earth Ontario Premier Doug Ford, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, and now Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have been going on about, talking about a pipeline to James Bay.
Now I think I have it figured out – they want to take another run at an Energy East Pipeline, call it Mark 2, if you will. It would totally ignore Quebec, and along the way, New Brunswick. At first, I thought the idea was crazy; but upon much reflection, it could be crazy like a fox.
You can see the arguments being laid out. Ford started talking about an export port on James Bay. Ford and Smith signed an MOU on July 7 at the Calgary Stampede, which is when I first heard of this. Moe added his signature on July 22. Missing, so far, is Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew.
But if what I think is being considered is what transpires, not a lot will happen in Manitoba, other than the construction of some pumping stations at existing compressor station sites. Nearly all the action would take place in Northern Ontario. That’s because most of it is already built.
In some areas of the country, there already is a de facto energy corridor. Along Highway 1 in extreme southeast Manitoba, seen here, the TransCanada Highway, CPR mainline, and TC Energy Mainline, seen here, are within a few hundred metres of each other. One of these pipelines could become the new Energy East Mark 2. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
Motivation
What’s Ford’s sudden motivation, other than trying to re-invigorate a steel industry suffering under Trump’s tariffs? It’s the horrifying prospect that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer could actually get her wish, and shut off Enbridge’s Line 5 which crosses between the two Michigan peninsulas at the Strait of Mackinac. Whitmer is strident in shutting down the admittedly old pipeline before another idiot drops an anchor on it, and potentially causes an oil spill that would devastate the Great Lakes.
Enbridge Line 5. Map courtesy Enbridge
So far, she’s been stymied and the courts have ruled in Enbridge’s and Canada’s favour. But Ford also likely suspects that Whitmer could be the next American president after Trump. She’s often been considered a possible presidential candidate. If she won, Line 5 is done. And the next president will be sworn in on Jan. 20, 2029, just 1,272 days from now.
And if that pipeline shuts down, the entire Ontario economy shuts down. Some Westerners might get their wish to “Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark.”
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Eureka moment
I’m guessing someone in Ford’s entourage, maybe Ford himself, finally got around to looking at a map and realized that, hey, Ontario has an ocean shoreline, too! Why haven’t we done anything with that? After all, Quebec has been stridently opposed to just about everything over the years, but most importantly a pipeline to the East Coast. So why don’t we just say to hell with Quebec, and get it to tidewater before it even gets close to Quebec? Why not be master of our own destiny?
So someone had a eureka moment and realized it’s time to do something with James Bay.
Premiers Doug Ford, Wab Kinew and Scott Moe on July 21, 22 or 23. X/Premier Scott Moe
Moosonee or bust
The clear choice for a port would be Moosonee, Ont. It already has an existing rail line running to it. Currently it is principally passenger service, but it was originally built for much more than that, with several mines along the way as well as a major power dam at Abitibi Canyon. That means means there’s substantial power supply nearby. The terminus of the rail line is just 19 kilometres from the shores of James Bay.
Having a rail line is huge, because it means there’s already an existing, longstanding right-of-way. It means you can use rail to bring in all your pipe and construction equipment and crews. And because the rail line is hardly used right now, using that rail line to support pipeline construction would hardly disrupt normal rail operations, since there’s hardly any to begin with. And the rail line is an Ontario Crown corporation, Ontario Northland, which helps immensely.
Playing with Google Earth, one finds that following the rail from Cochrane, Ont., to Moosonee would mean roughly 300 kilometres of pipeline. Why Cochrane? Because the TC Energy Mainline runs right past it. So we have a rail line and pipeline passing through the same town.
They could probably cut off 25 kilometres if they cut across from Smooth Rock Falls to Island Falls, reducing the total pipeline to around 275 kilometres.
Let’s put that into perspective: There’s a competing concept called NeeStaNan – a northern corridor stretching from Fort McMurray to Port Nelson, Manitoba, at the mouth of the Nelson River on Hudson Bay. That corridor would be about 1,400 kilometres. At least 400 kilometres of that would be new right-of-way across Canadian Shield, some of the most difficult terrain in Canada to build on. (Across Saskatchewan, it would run just south of the Canadian Shield until about Flin Flon, MB.)
Thus, the Moosonee right-of-way might be 275 kilometres of Canadian Shield and Hudson Bay Lowlands, but it’s not 1400.
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But there’s a very large black fly in that ointment. According to Blaine Mersereau, an advisor to the project who we had on the Pipeline Online Podcast on July 21, “We’ve tried to stay away from oil pipelines, because a lot of the nations that we’ve talked to along the right-of-way would prefer not to have an oil pipeline through the corridor.”
So clearly, that would be a big fight, possibly with numerous First Nations bands and communities. This right of way would be one fifth the length, with many fewer First Nations.
And the existing rail corridor should hopefully make an environmental assessment much, much easier.
(If you’re wondering why I keep mentioning black flies, there’s a famous vignette from the National Film Board about the black flies of northern Ontario that were encountered when the aforementioned Abitibi Canyon Dam was built.)
Nearly all of the pipe is already in the ground
Additionally, several years ago then-Alberta Premier Jason Kenny had the Alberta portion of the defunct Keystone XL project built from Hardisty to Empress, on the Alberta/Saskatchewan border. Thus, that portion of the pipeline is already in the ground. And if TC Energy, whose mainline is running at 78 per cent capacity, could be convinced to convert one of its gas pipelines to oil a la Energy East, all of that pipe is also in the ground until you get to Smooth Rock Falls or Cochrane.
The added bonus is that TC Energy at one point had all the hardware to build pumping stations for the 36 inch Keystone XL purchased and ready to go. I understand it had been kept in storage in Alberta, but I don’t know what became of it. If still available, it could be redeployed to build the pumping stations needed for Energy East Mark 2. That would mean most of the hardware would be already in hand.
And since the ending of the Trans Mountain Expansion construction in 2024, there are plenty of big-inch pipeliners out there looking for the next big job.
All that’s really lacking on the pipeline side of this is the pipe, which recent announcements suggest would come from Ontario.
There is the consideration that TC Energy spun off its oil pipelines to a new company called South Bow. But surely the sister companies could figure out how to work together to make this work.
(More pipe would be needed in southern Ontario to allow this pipeline to replace Enbridge Line 5, but that’s for another day’s discussion.)
All of that gets us to the shore, and depending on the urgency, it could happen in relatively swift order. But here’s where it gets interesting.
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Deep water?
As noted above, Ontario Premier Doug Ford talking about a deep water port on James Bay.
There’s a big problem with that, however. There is no “deep water” on the Ontario shores of James Bay. At least, not deep enough for large cargo ships like oil tankers.
It turns out the Ontario shore of James Bay is shallow – very shallow. A few kilometres off Moosonee the depths are just two to three fathoms. (There’s six feet to a fathom). That’s 12 to 18 feet, or 3.7 to 5.5 metres. Clearly, you’re not going to build a port right on the shoreline.
This slide from NeeStaNan’s presentation shows the locations of Port Albany, northwest of Moosonee, and the shallow waters. NeeStaNan
And its not just at Moosonee. Along the Ontario shore of James Bay, anywhere close to shore is only three to four fathoms deep, or shallower, as noted above. That’s 5.5 to 7 metres. A full-fledged VLCC (very large crude carrier supertanker) needs 23 metres to accommodate their drafts. That’s the depth of the 53-kilometre long dredged channel into the Port of Rotterdam, the largest port in Europe, that’s the main receiving point for tanker traffic.
An Aframax tanker, with a draft of 12 to 16 metres, is the next size down for thankers, and is what is being used for the Trans Mountain Pipeline terminal at Burnaby. It has a 13.5 metre maximum draft.
But here’s the thing – if you’re not going to build the port on the shoreline because it’s too shallow, you need to do what many major ports have done in China and the far east – dredge material and use that to create an artificial island for your port, like Vancouver’s Deltaport. In some ways, that can be preferable, because your island will be built flat as a pancake – perfect for shipping containers, material handling, road, rail, and pretty much everything else. An oil-loading berth or two is relatively simple in comparison.
And indeed, this is the plan for NeeStaNan – to build an artificial island two kilometres offshore of the mouth of the Nelson River. A breakwater would be needed to protect the island and harbour from ice, but it is doable. Hell, maybe some of the rock blasted from the pipeline construction could be taken by rail to use for breakwater construction off Moosonee?
They would have to do extensive dredging for a channel to deeper water, and to accommodate for the 2.5 metre tides in James Bay. As far as both I and the NeeStaNan rep can tell, that channel could be as long as 40 kilometres. But as Rotterdam has proven, it is possible. And anything dredged again provides more material for your artificial island.
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Opportunities abound
Giving Ontario its own tidewater port would mean it would not limited by size such as the now-outdated Saint Lawrence Seaway. With enough dredging, most ships could access that port. It could give it the ability to export not just raw materials, like critical minerals from the Ring of Fire projects, but finished goods, too. If a container port was added, finished products from Ontario factories could be exported, and container shipping could allow for imports, too.
If they were really ambitious, a car carrier port could allow for the export of Ontario-built cars via rail to Moosonee, and the new port. If the US is going to tariff our automaking industry, why not ship to the world, instead?
Need to add another product? Dredge some more, make your island bigger, and there you go. You could make it as large as you want and just keep going. That’s what they’re doing at ports all along the Chinese coastline, building big flat ports on reclaimed land using dredged material.
LNG? Why not? We’re already pulling off the TransCanada Mainline. Why not do gas as well?
For Ontario, the opportunities could be almost endless. And for Saskatchewan, it could be another potential outlet for potash. Maybe even grains, too.
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Ice, Ice, Baby
I do have to step back a minute here to address the elephant in the room – the truncated shipping season due to ice and the need for icebreaking. As shown in this graphic below, you would absolutely need a fleet of icebreakers for over half the year.
This animation, produced by X Account @Cappy_Nate, shows a year of ice analysis on Hudson Bay and Hudson Stgrate, using data from the Canadian Ice Service. You can find more at MapleCivvy.ca.
For some months, you’d have to break ice all the way from Moosonee to past the northern tip of Labrador. That’s roughly 2050 kilometres. And the two polar-class icebreakers the Canadian Coast Guard just ordered will cost $3.15 and $3.25 billion each.
This is a graphical representation of what Seaspan’s polar-class icebreaker will look like, when completed several years from now. Seaspan.
But maybe you don’t need that level of icebreaking for much of the ice season. Maybe we can use less-capable ones, as one commenter on social media suggested to me? And if you don’t have to build a pipeline through Quebec and New Brunswick, that potentially frees up a lot of money for icebreakers.
The reality is these costly projects are being considered because Quebec refuses to play nice. As Premier Moe recently said on June 17, “I’m done with that conversation.”
As all the pieces start coming into place, one can start to figure out why Moe can finally say that. And that’s why Saskatchewan signed onto the MOU.
Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online. He can be reached at brian.zinchuk@pipelineonline.ca.
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