Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Nicolás Maduro, president of Venezuela, captured on Jan. 3 by US special forces. US Government photo
Anyone remember when Trump said back on Jan. 23, 2025, “We don’t need their oil and gas. We have more than anybody”?
It was in the same statement where Trump was making some of those initial 51st state comments, a couple days after his second inauguration. You know, the ones we were supposed to get our elbows up for.
Well, as of Jan. 3, 2026, he may soon be proven correct, but not in a way you might expect.
For the last nearly 20 years, there’s been a maxim of Canadian oil production – even though most of our oil comes from the oilsands, making it heavy and sour, the US will take as much as it can. We just needed the pipelines to deliver it.
That’s why we got the original Keystone pipeline built. That’s why Enbridge built its Alberta Clipper. That’s why crude-by-rail trains rumble past my mom’s backyard along one of the CPKC mainlines, through Yorkton.
But we never really asked ourselves why? Why would the US need our heavy, sour crude?
Industry insiders would understand, but the general public likely does not.
It’s because the US needed Canadian oil to backfill declining imports of heavy, sour crude from Venezuela and Mexico.
Go back in history long enough, and you will find that the US was initially the largest oil producer on the planet (and is again, by the way, despite not being in the highest echelon of oil reserves). But as light, sweet crude production declined, as did American oil production overall, US Gulf Coast refineries retooled to take in what was readily available and close – heavy, sour crude from Mexico and Venezuela.
Venezuela turned out to have the largest oil reserves on the planet, eclipsing even that of Saudi Arabia. Depending on your source, these days the nations with top reserves are, in order, Venezuela, Saudia Arabia, Canada. Some sources say Iran has more than Canada. Whatever. Two of those top three (or four) are within spitting distance of the US of A.
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Back in 2002, Venezuela was producing 3 million barrels per day, exporting most of it, and most of that to the United States. By 2020, Venezuelan production had fallen to closer to 300,000 barrels per day, less than Saskatchewan. Now it’s closer to 1 million barrels per day.
But since 1998, Venezuela under socialist President Hugo Chavez, and then his appointed successor Nicolás Maduro, became increasingly hostile to the US and American oil companies and services. I distinctly remember talking to folks at the 2008 Lloydminster Heavy Oil Show whose company did a lot of work in Venezuela. Why? Because Lloydminster area heavy oil had a lot of similar production processes to Venezuela. A few years later, they were out, and for good reason.
The result of all this was a dramatic decline in oil production and revenue for the country, falling off a cliff in 2016. American sanctions rubbed salt into the socialist wound. In a nation that should be one of the richest on the planet, people were fleeing by the millions, and famine was a real thing. Everyone was losing weight, and not because they bought a Peloton (nor could they afford one). China cozied up to Maduro, and so did the Russians.
Analyzing Trump’s press conference
You can say what you want about whether Trump and the US should or should not have knocked over the Venezuelan government, 35 years to the day after it captured Manuel Noriega of Panama – both of which were charged with drug offences in US courts. It happened. It’s done.
If you watch the press conference, as I have, you may be astonished how many times Trump and his cabinet secretaries spoke of Venezuelan oil. It was a lot. According to this transcript, it came up 26 times.
Here’s the pertinent quotes from the press conference. Here’s the transcript. Pay particular attention to how Trump refers to Venezuelan oil as “our oil”, as in “You know, they stole our oil,” when referring to the nationalization of the oil industry in Venezuela.
President Donald Trump, speaking from his Florida golf course, on the capture of Nicolas Maduro and the attack on Venezuela. X/@WhiteHouse
President Donald Trump:
“As everyone knows, the oil business in Venezuela has been a bust, a total bust, for a long period of time. They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been pumping and what could’ve taken place. We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”
“They sent from their mental institutions, they sent from their jails, prisons. They were drug dealers. They were drug kingpins. They sent everybody bad into the United States, but no longer. And we have now a border where nobody gets through. In addition, Venezuela unilaterally seized and sold American oil, American assets, and American platforms costing us billions and billions of dollars.”
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And
“They did this a while ago, but we never had a president that did anything about it. They took all of our property. It was our property. We built it. And, uh, we never had a president that decided to do anything about it. Instead, they fought wars that were 10,000 miles away. We built Venezuela oil industry with American talent, drive and skill, and the socialist regime stole it from us during those previous administrations, and they stole it through force.
“This constituted one of the largest thefts of American property in the history of our country. Considered the largest theft of property in the history of our country. Massive oil infrastructure was taken like we were babies, so we didn’t do anything about it. I would have done something about it. America will never allow foreign powers to rob our people or drive us back into and out of our own hemisphere.”
And
“This extremely successful operation should serve as warning to anyone who would threaten American sovereignty or endanger American lives. Very importantly, the embargo on all Venezuelan oil remains in full effect. The American armada remains poised in position, and the United States retains all military options until United States demands have been fully met and fully satisfied.”
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth:
“President Trump is deadly serious about stopping the flow of gangs and violence to our country, deadly serious about stopping the flow of drugs and poison to our people, deadly serious about getting back the oil that was stolen from us, and deadly serious about reestablishing American deterrent and dominance in the Western hemisphere.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio:
“You have a guy, like many people around the world, they like to play games. You have a guy who decides he’s gonna invite Iran into his country, is going to, you know, do the confiscation of American oil companies. He’s gonna flood our country with gang members, is, is going to take Americans prisoner and try to hold him for hostage and trade him like he was able to do with a Biden administration.”
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In response to press questions, President Donald Trump:
“And we’re gonna get the oil flowing the way it should be. As you know, it was just a minor flow. It was actually a minor flow for what they have. Uh, but we’re gonna run it properly, and we’re gonna make sure the people of Venezuela are taken care of. We’re gonna make sure the people that were forced out of Venezuela by this thug, uh, are also taken care of.
And
“We’re there now. We’re ready to go again if we have to. We’re going to run the com- — country right. It’s going to be run very, uh, judiciously, very fairly. Uh, it’s gonna make a lot of money. We’re gonna give money to the people. We’re gonna reimburse, uh, people that were taking advantage of. We’re gonna take care of everybody.
“It’s very important. We couldn’t let them get away with it. You know, they stole our oil. We, we built that whole industry there. And they just took it over like we were nothing. And we had a president that decided not to do anything about it. So, uh, we did something about it. We’re late, but we did something about it.”
And
“So, I’d like to do it quickly, but it takes a period of time. You know, we’re rebuilding, we have to rebuild their whole infrastructure. Their infrastructure is rotted. It’s actually very dangerous. It’s, uh, you know, blow-up territory. Oil is very dangerous. It’s a very dangerous thing to take out of the ground.
“Uh, it can kill a lot of people. It has killed a lot of people doing just that. Uh, the infrastructure is old, it’s rotted. Much of it is stuff that we put there 25 years ago, and we’re gonna re- — be replacing it, and we’re going to take a lot of money out so that we can take care of the country.”
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And
“Well, in terms of China and Russia, yeah, uh, well, Russia, when we get things straightened out, but in terms of other countries that want oil, uh, we’re in the oil business, we’re gonna sell it to them. We’re not gonna say we’re not gonna give it to them. In other words, we’ll be selling oil, uh, probably in much larger doses because they couldn’t produce very much because their infrastructure was so bad.
“So, we’ll be selling large amounts of oil to other countries, many of whom are using it now, but I would say, many more will come.
And
“We’ll run it properly, we’ll run it professionally. We’ll have the greatest oil companies in the world going and invest billions and billions of dollars, and take out money, use that money in Venezuela, and the biggest beneficiary are gonna be the people of Venezuela, and also, I can’t stress this strongly enough, the people that got thrown out of Venezuela that are now in the United States.”
And
“We will, well, we want safety there. We wanna be surrounded by countries that aren’t housing all of our enemies all over the world. That’s what that was happening, and you don’t wanna have that. Uh, but we’re going to be, uh, rebuilding and, and we’re, we’re not spending money. Uh, the oil companies are gonna go in, they’re gonna spend money, they’re gonna, we’re gonna take back the oil that, frankly, we shoulda taken back a long time ago.
“A lot of money is coming outta the ground. We’re gonna get reimbursed for all of that. We’re gonna get reimbursed for everything that we spend. So it’s gonna be, uh, it’s going to be a very important, it’s gonna be a very important, this is a very big evening that took place last night. We have to be surrounded by safe, secure countries, and we also have to have energy.
“Very important. We have to have energy that’s real energy, not where they’re getting 4% and 5% of the energy out of the ground. You take a look, it was such a disaster. So what’s going to happen with Venezuela, I think, over the next period of a year is gonna be a great thing, and the people of Venezuela will be the biggest beneficiaries.”
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Now if it seems like that’s a lot of quotes, it’s because it is. There’s no way you can listen to that press conference and not realize that removing Maduro wasn’t so much about shutting down a drug pipeline as it was restructuring oil markets, and the US and its oil companies taking control of the largest oil reserves on the planet. It’s abundantly clear.
And if they are able to do so without an insurgency rising up a la Iraq, then Trump will have proven himself right – they won’t need our oil.
(Mexican production has dropped to the point where their exports are falling like a stone over the last two decades. They could soon only have enough production for domestic consumption.)
Now, there are some very, very large caveats here. The US has proven to be exceptionally adept at regime change, getting rid of foreign presidents they don’t like. Think Noriega, Hussein, Khadafi, and now Maduro, accomplished in three hours.
But they are exceptionally bad at making it stick through a peaceful transition to a friendly, democratic regime. How will American oil companies and their associated service companies be treated on the ground? With open arms or with AK-47s? With all the fireworks that happened in the three hour operation on Jan. 3, surely some Venezuelans were killed. The surefire way of creating a highly motivated insurgent is to kill his father, brother, uncle or son. The same applies for mother, wife or daughter.
The Americans found that out the hard way in Iraq.
If an American occupying force ends up guarding American oil workers, the probability of an insurgency grows by the day, as does the chances of Americans coming home in body bags. And then all bets are off with regards to increasing Venezuelan oil production.
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So where does that leave Canada?
In the coming years – and it will take years – we may see Venezuelan oil rebound, adding millions of barrels per day to the global market. Remember that a surplus or deficiency of 2 million barrels per day on a global market of around 100 million barrels per day is the difference between a $50 barrel and a $100 barrel. And right now, we’re trading in the $50s. So if Venezuela adds a further two million barrels, we could see depressed oil prices for a much longer period.
We could also be slowly pushed out of our primary market. So what do we do then? If we listened to Steven Guilbeault or Justin Trudeau, we’d “phase out” our oilsands and oil production, to “leave it in the ground.”
And in so doing, we would be curtailing our nation’s most lucrative primary industry. We’re not going to replace that with tourism to Fort McMurray.
While Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe have been talking about doubling oil production in each of their provinces, Jan. 3 may immensely change the calculation. We might not need additional pipelines to the West Coast to handle additional product – we might need them instead to divert our current production as we lose customers on the Gulf Coast. And we may need those pipelines built in short order as Venezuelan production comes back onstream.
Even if Venezuelan oil does not displace Canadian oil directly, if they do eventually succeed in added one then two million barrels per day to the world market, it will have a negative impact on global prices. And their product – heavy, sour crude – is a direct competitor with our oilsands production.
This, in turn, may have substantial impacts on the Canadian economy, and Alberta and Saskatchewan in particular. It could lead to even more years of depressed oil prices – after 11 years of doldrums (with a brief spike due to the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine.) The Saskatchewan 2025 budget was planned around a US$71 per barrel oil price. We haven’t seen that since June, and likely won’t see it any time soon. If you want to know why Saskatchewan’s in deficit, that’s a big part of your answer.
Budget planners in Edmonton, Regina and Ottawa had better start considering the implications of Trump’s Venezuelan actions in their planning.
So what can we do? We should put a serious impetus on building those pipelines, plural, to the coast. Initially they were planned for increased production. They could instead be needed to replace flow that currently heads south.
That’s about all we can do. If nothing comes of Venezuelan production, we can add capacity and sell more overseas. Either way, build that pipe.
Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online. He can be reached at brian.zinchuk@pipelineonline.ca.
Editor’s note: I wrote this on Saturday, but held it for publicaiton Monday. I’m glad to see I’m not the only one coming to this realization.
Check out Adam Pankratz in the National Post, whose arguments parallel those you just read here. Or on LinkedIn: Miro Cernetig.
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