Brian Crossman is a partner in Estevan-based Independent Well Servicing. The opinions expressed in this column are the opinions of the author and not necessarily the opinions of Independent Well Servicing.
By greeblie from US – Instrument Of Evil?, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=48076080
Once again it is time to recap the past year’s events and attempt to prognosticate the upcoming events of 2025, obviously geared towards the Canadian energy industry. South of the border, we have huge changes that affect Canada directly along with the rest of the world. (Trump is a huge disruptor.) On our side, we have a government that seems to be in full crash mode, with Liberal Party MPs heading for the exits, and throwing their leader under the bus (rightfully so, in my opinion). More on all this later.
So, what exciting, interesting and potentially terrifying will happen in the next 365 days? What can we in the energy industry do to prepare? I will once again attempt to predict what going to happen in 2025. I have attempted this in previous years, with, uh, less than accurate results. So once again, I say “WTF” and with the help of the “Fantasmical Prognostication Machine” AKA, my “Magic Eight Ball TM” we will throw caution to the wind.
#1. WTI oil price – “will it continue to rise?” The eight ball gave me the “MOST LIKELY” last year. What really happened as of November 2024 WTI average price was around $77.13 ($77.62 in 2023). It currently sits around $71.80. Experts are predicting the price to be around $69.00 for WTI, so I ask if the price will remain stable and shake the “Magic 8 Ball TM” and receive a “BETTER NOT TELL YOU NOW” as a response. The ball is trying to protect my feelings a bit I think. The need for Canadian crude is not going away, but “drill baby drill” may have an effect on prices which will be a negative for the producers and associated businesses, but a positive for the consumer. Hopefully it is a year where all aspects of the industry can show a decent profit. Definitely a double-edged sword.
- 0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs
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#2. “What the Hell is going on with the Liberal Party of Canada?” “MAGIC EIGHT BALL TM” should say, “I HAVE NO F—ING IDEA!” but because this is a device you would buy in a toy store, it says “OUTLOOK NOT SO GOOD”, which means to me that even the magic ball can see the hot mess that is the Liberal party, and by extension the left wing in Canada. Let’s be honest, when you run off your finance minister right before the year-end financial report and increase the deficit by $22 billion, the Loonie trading below seventy cents USD, it makes a convincing argument for a spring (or sooner) election. But when you run off skiing and shut out the media, this kind of indicates Justin Trudeau will wait until the bitter end for an election. Judging from interviews with disgruntled Liberal MPs, it is amazing he is still PM. Hopefully for Canadians, these issues will trigger a spring election. But even so, there is a hell of a mess. Can we fix it? Yes, but it will require a lot of work and short-term pain. What choice do we have when the biggest Canadian taxpayer expense is INTEREST paid on the debt. (Well over 82 billion dollars per year…….)
#3. To follow-up with the previous prediction, the next and obvious question is, “Will there be a change in government this year?” I give it a good shake for 2024 and the response is “IT IS DECIDELY SO.” If you believe the current polls it would point to an overwhelming Conservative majority. This will be a good thing for the energy industry, and the entire country as well.
- 0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0084 EMP Metals Pipeline Online0084 EMP Metals Pipeline Online
- 0053 Kingston Midstream Westspur Alameda Click0053 Kingston Midstream Westspur Alameda Click
- 0082 CsHM 2024 Pipeline0082 CsHM 2024 Pipeline
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0076 Latus only0076 Latus only
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0055 Smart Power Be Smart with your Power office0055 Smart Power Be Smart with your Power office
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0011
- 0006 JK Junior
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001
#4. “Will I win the lottery?” Shake it- “MY SOURCES SAY NO.” I shake it again for good measure and it shows “SIGNS POINT TO YES.” Better buy me some Lotto tickets, I’m pretty sure you need those to win. (Being a Canadian is pretty much the same as winning the lottery anyway.)
#5. “Are operating costs going to continue to rise?” “CANNOT PREDICT NOW” is the reply. Hopefully we get the “carbon tax election” this country desperately needs, and this will begin to lower the cost of everything across the board in Canada. This, along with a stop to the emissions cap, (a production cap, really) will bring back profitability and then investment dollars back into Canada. Of course it won’t happen immediately, so patience will be required. But I am confident this will happen.
#6. “Will the demand for fossil fuels going to drop?” I asked this last year and was told “BETTER NOT TELL YOU NOW.” This year I have “MY SOURCES SAY NO” for an answer. Personally, I see a continued need for crude oil, based on what has been happening. I noted earlier that OPEC predicts increased demand, and it seems to be a consensus with economists in general. Most analysts agree that to manufacture EVs, windmills, solar panels and facilitate the “energy transition” will take a huge amount of fossil fuels to accomplish. We still need fuel to ship the heavy loads and between regular driving and all the other uses for petroleum continue to grow. Transition or no transition, we will continue to need oil and gas. Happily, for Saskatchewan lithium development continues to play a substantial part in the industry, and this will continue. Many countries continue to inquire about Canadian LNG as well. (Remember when we were told there is no business model?)
- 0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0084 EMP Metals Pipeline Online0084 EMP Metals Pipeline Online
- 0053 Kingston Midstream Westspur Alameda Click0053 Kingston Midstream Westspur Alameda Click
- 0082 CsHM 2024 Pipeline0082 CsHM 2024 Pipeline
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0076 Latus only0076 Latus only
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0055 Smart Power Be Smart with your Power office0055 Smart Power Be Smart with your Power office
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0011
- 0006 JK Junior
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001
#7. This is the part where I would normally ask “MAGIC EIGHT BALL TM” if the Saskatchewan Roughriders will win the Grey Cup in 2025. As a longtime fan, I won’t ask this time, as not to jinx their season. I will however ask the burning question on our industries collective mind, “Will there be a season two of the hit series Landman?” I give the ball a shake and the response is “WITHOUT A DOUBT.” This is good news for the fans of the show. (Love it or hate it, we don’t mind seeing the industry on TV.) Look for the official Pipeline Online TV show review when season one is concluded.
Once again, just for fun I give it a prolonged shake and say out loud “Is everything gonna be alright?” “WITHOUT A DOUBT” is the answer. I agree. As with most things in life, things may not work out the way you want, or the way you think they should, but trust me and the magic eight ball, they will work out. Here’s to a very happy New Year my friends.
Brian Crossman is a partner at Independent Well Servicing. He is seriously considering starting a petition to the makers of “MAGIC EIGHT BALL TM” to add a “Whiskey Tango Foxtrot” response. In light of events over the past year; he believes it is warranted. Just saying.
- 0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs0086 Sask Gov Oil and Gas Incentive Programs
- 0085 Turnbull snow removal call office0085 Turnbull snow removal call office
- 0084 EMP Metals Pipeline Online0084 EMP Metals Pipeline Online
- 0053 Kingston Midstream Westspur Alameda Click0053 Kingston Midstream Westspur Alameda Click
- 0082 CsHM 2024 Pipeline0082 CsHM 2024 Pipeline
- 0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
- 0076 Latus only0076 Latus only
- 0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
- 0055 Smart Power Be Smart with your Power office0055 Smart Power Be Smart with your Power office
- 0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
- 0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
- 0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan0046 City of Estevan This is Estevan
- 0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build0041 DEEP Since 2018 now we are going to build
- 0032 IWS Summer hiring rock trailer music
- 0022 Grimes winter hiring
- 0021 OSY Rentals S8 Promo
- 0018 IWS Hiring Royal Summer
- 0013 Panther Drilling PO ad 03 top drive rigs
- 0011
- 0006 JK Junior
- 0002 gilliss casing services0002 gilliss casing services
- 9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
- 9001