Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Minister of Finance and Deputy Premier Jim Reiter, tabling his first budget on March 19. Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
REGINA – Here’s everything energy-related in the 2025 provincial budget tabled on March 19 by Minister of Finance and Deputy Premier Jim Reiter:
Last year the Saskatchewan government announced its well-received Multi-Lateral Well Program in its spring budget. This year another new program is being announced to squeeze as much as possible out of existing wells by breathing new life into them.
“The Low Productivity and Reactivation Oil Well Program is an incentive program designed to encourage industry to make new capital investments in low-producing and inactive horizontal oil wells. The goal is to create incremental oil production and revenue from existing wells,” said the government release issued as part of the provincial budget package of announcements.
Get used to hearing the term “re-entry,” as the Low Productivity and Reactivation Oil Well Program is being introduced to encourage the drilling of new horizontal leg of at least 500 metres on existing wells producing under 10.5 barrels a day.
Here are the details, straight from the budget:
“The 2025-26 Budget introduces the Low Productivity and Reactivation Oil Well Program, a Crown royalty and freehold production tax volumetric drilling incentive for low producing, suspended or inactive wells based on the following definitions:
“A qualifying well can receive a volumetric incentive of 3,000 cubic metres (m3) produced per newly drilled horizontal section, to a maximum incentive volume of 6,000 m3 per well, with a minimum drilling length of 500 metres per new horizontal section.”
Eligible wells include:
- Any horizontal well producing 50.0 m3 per month (10.5 barrels per day) or less, on average, for 12 consecutive months on a pro-rated basis; and
- On an ongoing basis after April 1, 2025, any horizontal well producing 50.0 m3 per month or less, on average, for 24 consecutive months.
“This program is focused on creating incentives for the revitalization of low producing, suspended or inactive wells by drilling new horizontal sections, which will help maximize reservoir recovery rates.
“The Low Productivity and Reactivation Oil Well Program will apply to new horizontal sections drilled on existing low-productivity, suspended and inactive horizontal wells from April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2029,” the budget said.
Further information on this program and eligibility criteria can be obtained by contacting the Ministry of Energy and Resources at petroleumroyalties@gov.sk.ca or by visiting saskatchewan.ca.
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Oil Infrastructure Investment Program
“First introduced in the 2019-20 Budget, the Oil Infrastructure Investment Program offers transferable Crown royalty and freehold production tax credits at a rate of 20 per cent of eligible project costs for qualifying projects that significantly increase provincial pipeline capacity.
“The 2025-26 Budget announces a four-year extension of the new application acceptance period to March 31, 2029. The end date for royalty credits to be claimed for completed projects is also being extended from 2035 to 2040,” the budget said.
“To be eligible for the program, a minimum of $10 million must be invested in approved capital expenditures, which include all costs necessary to construct and bring an approved pipeline or pipeline terminal into service. This program is open to new or expanded oil, refined petroleum products, natural gas liquids or carbon dioxide pipeline projects, including:
- Transmission pipelines;
- Feeder pipelines (including trunk and branch pipeline systems);
- Pipeline terminals; and
- Enabling infrastructure investments that are directly linked and dedicated to an eligible project and are required to bring that project into service may also be considered eligible.
“The program has an overall program cap of $100 million in royalty credits, and an individual project cap of $40 million in credits.
“Further information on this program and eligibility criteria can be obtained by contacting the Ministry of Energy and Resources at oiip@gov.sk.ca.”
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Business processes
“At the same time, Saskatchewan will also modernize business processes through $1.6 million in enhancements to information technology systems, which will improve oil and gas industry reporting requirements in support of regulatory oversight, risk mitigation and safety efforts. The Incident Reporting Enhancement Project and the Pipeline License Multi-Substance Project will contribute to the delivery of Saskatchewan’s Growth Plan commitments and position the province as a leader in sustainable resource development,” the Ministry of Energy and Resources press release said.
“This year’s budget includes $350,000 in funding for the Public Geoscience Initiative. This investment will encourage exploration and promote new critical mineral discoveries by providing industry access to new, high-quality geoscience information across Saskatchewan. This is the second year of funding under the initiative, a $10 million commitment over 10 years that will help identify new critical mineral potential in the province as part of Securing the Future: Saskatchewan’s Critical Minerals Strategy. The existing Oil Infrastructure Investment Program will be renewed for an additional four years to March 31, 2029, to support expanded market access for Saskatchewan oil and carbon dioxide pipeline infrastructure.”
Minister of Finance and Deputy Premier Jim Reiter, delivering his first budget on March 19. Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
Taxation of electric vehicles
Conventional internal combustion vehicles have long been taxed for their usage of public roads through taxation of the fuel used. But since electric vehicles don’t pay for gasoline or diesel, there were essentially getting a free ride until the 2021-22 budget introduced and annual “Road Use Charge” for EVs.
The budget said, “That charge will increase from $150 to $300 in the 2025-26 Budget to better reflect the costs of road maintenance and ensure owners of EVs pay a more comparable amount to owners of traditional vehicles. The new annual rate is effective June 1, 2025. The charge will continue to be collected by SGI when the EV is registered and will continue to be included in reporting under The Fuel Tax Accountability Act.”
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Budget fundamentals
Resource revenue is crucial to provincial finances, but the Saskatchewan Party government wants to make sure it is not too crucial, lest a drop in commodity prices cause a shortfall in funds.
The government has had a longstanding goal of limiting its reliance on resource revenue streams to pay for operating expenses with a ceiling of 15 per cent total resource revenue as a percentage, used as a benchmark for fiscal sustainability. In this year’s budget, resource revenue is expected to be 12.8 per cent.
The key numbers for oil production is an estimated US$71.00 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with a differential of 15 per cent between WTI and Western Canadian Select (WCS). This is based on an exchange rate of 70.39 cents.
However, that number does not correspond with what Alberta has used in its budget. Alberta has pegged WTI at US$68 per barrel, with a light-heavy differential of US$17.10 per barrel. They also used 69.60 cents for the exchange rate.
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Oil production
Here’s what the budget said about oil production:
“Oil production to grow over the medium term Saskatchewan’s oil production is projected to grow by 1.8 per cent in the 2025-26 fiscal year, and increase at an average of 1.5 per cent per year over the medium term (2026-27 to 2029-30). This is expected to be driven by strong growth in investment, as the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion has narrowed the price differential, improved profits and continues to increase investors’ interest in adding new production capacity. The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand growth to remain relatively subdued. This will weaken oil prices in the near term, especially with substantial spare oil production capacity in the Middle East.”
“The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price is expected to fall to US$71.00 per barrel in 2025-26, before returning to an average of US$75.50 per year over the medium term from 2026-27 to 2029-30 (Chart 2).”
There is a sharp discrepancy between the budget document’s estimates of oil production growth and stated goals of the Saskatchewan Party government. For the last approximately six years, the Saskatchewan Party has said it was aiming for oil production to hit 600,000 barrels per day by 2030. As the budget notes oil production is currently 457,260 barrels per day, hitting 600,000 would need a total growth of 142,740 barrels by 2030. That’s an increase of 32.2 per cent over current production, substantially more than the “average of 1.5 per cent per year over the medium term (2026-27 to 2029-30)” cited in the budget document.
Ensign Drilling Rig 423 was drilling north of Lampman for Whitecap Resources Inc. on March 2. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
The 2024 budget’s announcement of the Multi-Lateral Well Program was expected to eventually see an increase in production of 50,000 barrels per day at the time of announcement. And while there has been substantial uptake of new multi-lateral wells that would qualify for the program, the budget’s growth estimate for the next four years does not come close to that incremental 50,000 barrel per day number.
During the October election, Premier Scott Moe had indicated he’d like to see oil production increase eventually to one million barrels per day. That number has since been repeated numerous times by both Moe and cabinet ministers. While Moe didn’t provide a time frame, that would be more than doubling our current production. And doing so would also be in line with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s goal of increasing that province’s oil production, currently at 4 million barrels per day of conventional crude and raw bitumen to 8 million barrels per day.
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Uranium
Also on the energy side, Here’s what the budget said about uranium:
Uranium production to remain strong over the medium term
Global interest in nuclear energy continues to grow and is driving investor interest in the development of multiple uranium mining projects in northern Saskatchewan.
“Saskatchewan uranium production continues to expand with improved mine site efficiency and optimization by industry. Uranium sales are projected to reach 17,400 tonnes in 2025-26, an increase of 7.7 per cent, and will remain at elevated levels across the forecast horizon.
“Uranium prices remain strong with expectations that global uranium supplies will not keep pace with demand in the coming years. Prices are forecast to increase by 4.1 per cent in 2025-26 to US$57.11 per pound, and then moderate at sustainable levels around US$53 to US$59 per pound over the medium term.”
Business taxes
A large number of business in the energy sector qualify as small businesses. The 2025-26 Budget confirms that the Small Business Tax Rate will remain at the current rate of 1 per cent instead of returning to 2 per cent as originally intended. The amount of eligible business income on which the Small Business Tax Rate applies will remain at $600,000.
The 2025-26 Budget introduces a new Small and Medium Enterprise Investment Tax Credit to create incentives for businesses to continue investing and scaling-up their operations.
Effective July 1, 2025, the Small and Medium Enterprise Investment Tax Credit will provide a nonrefundable tax credit equal to 45 per cent of equity investment by qualified individuals or corporations in an eligible small and medium-sized enterprise.
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The numbers
The budget is set to have a slim surplus of $12 million. However, that’s following a rough year which saw a $273.2 million deficit budgeted for 2024-25, a deficit which is now forecast to come it at $660.6 million, according to this budget.
That’s on budgeted revenues of $21.056 billion, and expenses of $21.044 billion.
And while the finance minister portrayed it as a balanced budget, gross debt is budgeted to increase to $38.3 billion in 2026, from a 2025 forecast of $35.8 billion. Last year’s budget forecast gross debt at $34.8 billion. That’s an increase in debt of $3.5 billion from last year’s budget to this year’s.
The lion’s share of that increase, $2.4 billion, is from the capital plan. Including Crown corporation’s $2.761 billion and $1.867 billion, the total capital plan is $4.628 billion.
Real GDP is budgeted at 1.8 per cent growth, with a forecast next year of 2.0 per cent. The estimate for 2024 is 1.6 per cent.
The unemployment rate for 2025 is forecast to be 5.6 per cent, after 5.4 per cent estimated for 2024. In 2026, unemployment rate is forecast at 5.4 per cent.
The capital plan for SaskPower is budgeted at $1.66 billion this year, $1.663 billion in 26-27, $1.523 billion in 27-28, and $2.124 billion in 28-29. Notably, SaskPower has said it would make its decision on whether or not to go ahead with small modular reactors in 2029, and if it did, construction is currently scheduled to being in 2030.
The budget said, “Through SaskPower, the government is forecasting a historic capital investment of approximately $1.7 billion in its electricity system, which will help meet increasing electricity demand in the province and provide reliable and cost-effective electricity generation now and into the future. The 2025-26 Budget includes construction of the 370 MW natural gas-fired electrical plant in south-central Saskatchewan and the expansion of the Southwest Power Pool transmission interconnection.
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“The 2025-26 Budget invests $510 million in the province’s natural gas transmission and distribution system through SaskEnergy. These investments ensure safe, reliable and affordable natural gas services to customers. Supporting SaskPower’s next natural gas power station in southcentral Saskatchewan is the single largest driver of SaskEnergy’s capital planning for the next two years.”
Notably, the day before the budget, Crown Investment Corp. Minister Jeremy Harrison announced that SaskPower and SaskEnergy would be buying steel from Regina-based EVRAZ for these capital projects.
A revenue update from last year’s budget said, “Non-Renewable Resource Revenue is forecast to decrease $184 million from budget.”
Potash revenue is expected to be down $195 million, while uranium is expected to be $21 million higher than budget due to higher prices.
“Oil and natural gas revenue is forecast to be $20 million higher than budget, primarily due to a decrease in the exchange rate and an improved light-heavy differential.
“The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price has decreased slightly from budget. WTI is now forecast to average US$74.29 per barrel in 2024-25, compared to the budget forecast of US$77.00 per barrel.
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Minister of Finance and Deputy Premier Jim Reiter, delivering his first budget on March 19. Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
Finance Minister
Finance Minister Jim Reiter said in his speech, “It’s a time of uncertainty and upheaval caused by the words and actions of the President of the United States on tariffs.
“To say the President has been erratic and unpredictable is an understatement.
“We simply do not know what tariffs the U.S. will impose nor how long they will remain in effect.
“These two unknowns made it extremely challenging to develop this year’s budget, as it was not possible to build in the exact impact of the tariffs.
“You have seen some other provinces include contingencies in their budgets.
“However, these contingencies are not surpluses that are set aside, they simply increase deficits that will already be funded by borrowing.
“The budget includes an analysis from the Ministry of Finance on the potential impacts of the tariffs on Saskatchewan.
“The uncertainties will show why including any amount of contingency at this time would not be realistic.
“However, we’ve been cautious on expenditures in today’s budget and prudent on revenues to put us in the best possible financial position to weather the impacts of tariffs.
“In developing this budget, we did not allow the threat of tariffs to back us away from any of our election commitments on affordability and safer communities,” he said in his introduction.
“Revenues are forecast to increase due to a combination of increased corporate income tax, PST and uranium resource royalties, as construction activity and our population continue to grow.
“Total expense is projected to be $21.0 billion – an increase of $909 million, or 4.5 per cent, from the 2024-25 Budget.
“Besides the surplus, another sign of Saskatchewan’s strong financial position is our net debt position.
“Currently, it remains the second lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio among Canadian provinces,” he said.
The speech referenced the creation of a new Small and Medium Enterprise Investment Tax Credit.
It also spoke briefly about the aforementioned introduction of the Low Productivity and Reactivation Oil Well Program to encourage new capital investments in low-producing and inactive horizontal oil wells.
In his conclusion, the minister said, “I am pleased to share that just today, Statistics Canada announced that Saskatchewan’s population has topped one and a quarter million people for the first time ever.
“We do not seek growth simply for the sake of growth… but for what it means to our province and its people.
“Growth drives increases in revenue which pays for the things that matter….health care, education, community safety, and a lot more.
“A growing economy and a growing province means a better quality of life for the one and a quarter million people – and counting – who now call Saskatchewan home.
“That’s what this budget delivers.
“There will always be challenges to overcome, and there certainly are today.
“But the spirit and resilience of this great province will always overcome any challenges we may face.”
Editor’s note: On Friday: The NDP’s response on energy
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