Keystone pipeline facilities are seen in Hardisty, Alta., on Friday, Nov. 6, 2015. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

 

Over the past few weeks several online publishers of oil prices have been reporting vastly different prices for Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude. The price differences reflect significantly inconsistent values for the differential fees or discounts that reduce the value of WCS relative to the benchmark price of West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI).

I’ve been searching for information to explain the price confusion since first noticing it on October 7. To that end I asked over a dozen industry analysts and oil producers if they could explain what the heck’s going on. The list of informants included: two of the companies that produce WCS crude, the editors of three online energy industry publications; officials from two government of Alberta departments; plus several oil industry analysts.

One of the answers I was looking for was which, if any, of the online oil price publishers do the informants view as the most useful?

The respondents recommended four publications. But the two receiving by far the most recommendations were BNN Bloomberg and OilPrice.com. Despite being recommended these two publishers have been posting radically different prices for WCS crude this past month. They can’t both be right.

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WCS at US $67.80 per barrel vs. WCS at US$ 85.15 per barrel

Over the course of the October 7 to October 30 period, the average price for WCS reported by BNN Bloomberg was US $67.80. That price reflects an average differential between the prices for benchmark WTI and WCS of US $30.36 or 30.82 percent. The average price reported by Bloomberg for WTI was $98.50.

On the other hand, the average price for WCS reported by OilPrice.com for the same period was US $85.15. That accounted for an average daily differential between the price of WTI and WCS of US $13.00 or 13.29 percent. OilPrice.com reported a WTI average of US $98.14,

Note: There is a short Appendix at the end of this article that provides comparisons of all four of the oil price sites recommended by the informants.

If the OilPrice.com figures are accurate, Western Canada’s oil industry is enjoying significantly higher prices and revenues today than was the case prior to the start of the current war in the Persian Gulf.

If the prices reported by BNN Bloomberg provide an accurate reflection of reality, Canadian oil producers are dealing with differential discounts that deny them a significant portion of the benefit from todays’ higher global crude prices.

FYI: Western Canadian producers export 85 percent of the crude oil they produce to the US and 80 percent of that is WCS. WCS crude is derived from bitumen produced in northern Alberta’s oil sands. Bitumen has to be diluted to permit it to flow in wells, pipelines and during the initial phases of refining. The WCS crude exported from western Canada is diluted bitumen which is often referred to a “dilbit.”

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The optimistic assessment

To several observers the OilPrice.com average appears to provide the most accurate price. After all, the global price for crude oil has increased following the outbreak of the current war in the Persian Gulf and also in response to supply reductions and upward price pressure generated by the decline in Russian oil exports due to disruptions produced by Russia’s war with Ukraine.

The week prior to the outbreak of the current war in the Persian Gulf, benchmark Brent crude was selling at around $70.00 per barrel, a few weeks into the war the price had climbed to US $103.00 per barrel—a price increase of 32 percent.

This optimistic assessment of market conditions assumes oil producers on the Prairies and their royalty collecting governments are having a banner year.

The discouraging view

On the other hand, a similarly good case can be made to the effect that the BNN Bloomberg WCS prices better reflect what’s going on with oil markets, particularly in North America. There are prominent oil industry analysts and geopolitical gurus, including Peter Zeihan, who contend there is currently an oil surplus in the US that has plugged up oil pipelines, crude storage facilities and refineries.

They claim this is partly the result of oil from the US strategic reserve being pumped into the market over the past eight months as well the arrival in the US of additional Venezuelan imports. The extra oil combined with maintenance problems has presumably saturated the system. Buyers are dealing with more oil than the system can absorb over the short-term. Thus, demand for additional supplies of crude has declined, reducing the prices US buyers are prepared to pay for Canadian oil.

One factor partially responsible for oversupply problems in the US is the global increase in shipping rates charged by oil tanker owners. The rates charged on the handful of tankers that make it through the Straits of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandab have increased due to the risk of attack and sky high insurance premiums. In addition there are fewer shadow fleet tankers available due largely to Ukraine’s disabling and sinking of tankers carrying Russian oil.

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The Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast is a long way from oil hungry markets in East and South Asia. High tanker rates and the long shipping distances involved means international buyers have been discouraged from purchasing WTI crude in the amounts required to reduce the US surplus.

The oversupply conditions have refineries operating at maximum capacity to get excess oil through the system. There are maintenance problems associated with running refineries flat out that can cause shutdowns. WCS was involved in several of the recent shutdowns. Maintenance issues are discussed later in this article.

Regardless of which scenario best describes the reasons for rising, stable or falling WCS prices, a differential of 13.6 percent is something the industry can reasonably be expected and manage. Over the past two decades the discount has rarely fallen below 10 percent and does not rise above 22 percent very often. However, a 31percent discount that lasts for several months is cause for concern.

Obviously wildly varying prices send disturbingly mixed messages to investors and policy makers. If the BNN Bloomberg price is correct, investors could batten down the hatches and pull in their horns until prices improve. Or maybe they can take advantage of what OilPrice.com indicates is a period of high prices and confidently invest in projects like pipelines, wells and oil sands mines?

Getting the numbers right has implications for important public policy debates in Canada. For instance, supporters of new export pipelines to non-US terminals regularly argue the WCS discount is one of the principal reasons we need to establish greater access to Canadian tidewaters for prairie oil.

They point out that 85 percent of the crude exported from Western Canadian either has to be sold to US customers or left in the ground. Canadian producers are “price takers.” And it is widely believed American buyers take advantage of the fact our producers have very limited options besides selling their oil in the US. Furthermore, pipeline supporters claim US customers capture unearned profits by jacking up the differential.

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The cheaper they can buy Canadian oil, the more money they can make when they resell it into US and international markets. In other words, excessive differential discounts are considered an unfair trading practice–and a rip off.

Sure, the Trans Mountain system exports 15 percent of western Canadian crude to mostly non-US customers, but since it is currently operating at full capacity it has little influence over the differential. Without additional pipelines to transport Canadian oil to tidewater Canadian producers have no choice but to sell the majority of what they produce into the US.

The differential features prominently in Canadian energy policy debates. Supporters of the conventional energy sector argue there would be steady downward pressure on the value of the differential if there were more oil pipelines linking the Prairies to Canada’s coasts. The theory is that unreasonable discounts won’t survive in a more competitive market.

Furthermore, the idea new pipelines will save us from being exploited by US customers is compatible with the Elbows Up crowd’s campaign to enhance Canadian sovereignty and independence. New export pipelines are similarly compatible with the Carney government’s quest to find more non-US buyers for all the goods and services we export.

And let’s not forget oil production, consumption and pipelines have detractors in the environmental movement and parliament who want to curb oil production. What are the chances they’ll discover the confusion about the actual prices being paid for WCS crude? Will they call bullshit and expose pipeline supporters for using misleading data?

This sort of price confusion is not something one would expect to run into in a mature, sophisticated, modern industry like the petroleum business. When published prices for WCS are reasonably accurate they help facilitate effective business and investment decisions. But what are we supposed to think and do when there are two or more significantly different publicly available prices?

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There will always be a differential

Arguments claiming the differential is an unreasonable, unearned fee charged against WCS by US buyers can be quite misleading. Yes, there are probably times when the differential is so excessive it amounts to exploitation of Canadian exporters. But there are nevertheless legitimate grounds for charging a differential or discount on WCS.

First there is the cost of transporting the crude from the terminal hub at Hardisty, Alberta via pipeline or rail to the major US delivery hubs at Cushing, Oklahoma and Patoka, Illinois. That portion of the discount is similar to the system applied to Prairie farmers shipping grain for export—the buyers deduct freight charges to the coast from the market value of the grain. The transportation is paid by the primary producer.

Another legitimate application of the differential is to account for the additional refining steps required to process bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands. Unlike lighter varieties of crude, bitumen has to be “coked” before it can be cracked (broken down) into lighter petroleum products like sweet crude, diesel and gasoline. The costs attributed to coking are included in the differential, which seems reasonable.

No surprise, there is currently pressure on the system to get more bitumen coked faster to help reduce oversupply conditions.

However, when the amount of bitumen being coked increases the rate at which coking residues collect in the bottoms of the vacuum towers used to coke bitumen also increases. As a result coking facilities are being shut down more frequently these days to clean the vacuum tower bottoms.

Ironically, striving to increase coking rates winds up causing shut downs that reduce the amount of bitumen that can be coked. It’s a classic vicious circle.

Sometimes there are legitimate reasons for spikes in differential charges. Shutdowns are required to accommodate annual refinery maintenance. They are also caused by refinery fires and hurricanes affecting the US gulf coast refineries. If the market requires less oil due to shutdowns the price of crude will obviously tend to fall.

Notwithstanding the legitimate reasons for discounting WCS, it can be hard to know for certain if the purported reasons for raising the differential are real, let alone fair and reasonable.

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Why the differentials differ

One of the first things I learned during my dive into differing discounts, is that real-time spot prices are not available for WCS oil. This is because the WCS price established at Hardisty is not calculated and posted until the end of the trading day when it is “settled.” Settlement can rely on factors like futures contracts.

The principal reason for conflicting values is because Blomberg applies a price discovery methodology that is different from the method used to determine the WCS price reported by OilPrice.com.

In simple terms, Bloomberg’s methodology uses calculations based on historical spot prices that better reflect current conditions than the OilPrice.com method. OilPrice.com includes futures market information that presumably makes their prices more accurate over the long-term. In theory both methods ought to converge during long periods of market stability. But when there are dramatic shifts in market conditions there will be a lag time before the OilPrice.com price catches up with the Bloomberg price.

The most convincing and concise description of the different methods was provided in an email from the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission which reads as follows.

“Most WCS pricing information requires subscription memberships to access. Of the [free] sources mentioned, Bloomberg would be the source that is most widely used and tracks an Index that reflects physical Hardisty spot prices from previous settlements. OilPrice.com uses a slightly different mathematical formula to determine [the] WCS price that adjusts the WCS price using the daily front-month WTI price minus a set discount, which can result in a lag in the WCS discount.”

(The front-month pricing referred to above incorporates the first futures contracts for WTI to be cleared approximately 30 days after the day the calculation is being made)

A slight majority of informants I contacted preferred the BNN Bloomberg site for checking the WCS price. The next largest group recommended both sites without identifying a preference. A few of the informants indicated they either paid market analysts for the WCS market information they rely upon or said they themselves compile oil price information and offer it for sale.

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Whose news should we use?

A good plan might be to regularly check the BNN Bloomberg sit, but periodically compare its WCS price against OilPrice.com. Each site offers advantages. Interestingly, both of them report very similar daily prices for WTI crude.

If the problem with the OilPrice.com price is merely lag time, over an extended period of market stability, the prices being posted by the two publishers should tend to converge over time. Therefore it would be nice to know if the WCS prices were closer to each other in the past. If you know the answer to that please let us know at Pipeline Online.

One of the attractions of OilPrice.com is their listing of daily prices for several global benchmarks. They also list prices for dozens of crude oil varieties from around the world. There is a Canadian Blends section provided which lists nine Canadian crude products. It even includes a price for “Midale oil.” The site also provides daily natural gas prices for Alberta and the US. All interesting and useful things to check provided they are reasonably accurate.

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What’s to be done about the differences?

You would think there are credible institutions associated with the oil industry that would see value in the free publication of WCS prices that are as close to accurate as possible. If there are different calculation methodologies being used that produce significantly different results, quasi-official explanations for why they differ should be made readily available. In other words there should be transparency around the methods behind the numbers.  In cases where the WCS and WTI prices differ for legitimate and helpful reasons a price range could be provided.

As a final note, assuming the BNN Bloomberg price provides a reasonably accurate reflection of reality, it underlines the fact building new oil export pipelines is a national economic necessity.

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    0132 UMWA 2026
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    0129 Turnbull drivers operators
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  • 0126 Steel_Reef_Promo_
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    0114 Prospera Bold Vision
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    0113 Miller Epic Cinematic Hollywood trailer
  • 0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended
    0102 Lori Carr Coal Extended
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    0099 Mryglod Steel 1080p
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    0095 Fast Trucking nearly 70 years good at it
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    0077 Caprice Resources Stand Up For Free Speech
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    0061 SIMSA 2024 For Sask Buy Sask
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    0051 JML Hiring Pumpjack assembly
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    0049 Scotsburn Dental soft guitar
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    0002 gilliss casing services
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    9002 Pipeline Online 30 sec EBEX
  • 9001

 

Appendix

* For the past week, October 26 to 30, WCS prices were tracked for two additional free online price sites mentioned by the research informants: Alberta Oil and TradingView which is available free via Energy Now. The table provided below reports the average prices for the past week for these two sites as well as the Bloomberg and Oil Price sites for the same week. Note that the average for TradingView data is just $4.21 higher than the Bloomberg Price for WCS. And just $4.72 separates the OilPrice.com and Alberta Oil averages. The sites with the most similar averages probably employ very similar price discovery methodologies. See the table below.

Sources: BNN Bloomberg  https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/oil/

TradingView https://tradingview.com   via  https://energynow.ca/markets/

OilPrice.com https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/block/1

Alberta Oil Market Watch https://albertaoil.ca/