Jim Warren is a recovering academic as retired adjunct professor and lecturer in environmental sociology at the University of Regina.
Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announce a proposed pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast in Calgary on Thursday, July 02, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol
I was wrong last month when I wrote that Danielle Smith was far too talented to subject Albertans to a bad pipeline deal. I naively assumed that behind the scenes her officials were taking a tough position, working to reverse or at least modify those elements of the pipeline MOU that would jeopardize the commercial viability of the project.
The July 2 announcements in BC and Alberta have virtually slammed the door shut on the idea that the oil pipeline to the West Coast will be financed entirely by one or more private sector proponents. Some of us were hopeful a group of East Asian countries, whose supplies of oil were disrupted by the US-Israel War with Iran, would be anxious to find more reliable suppliers of oil and be willing to invest. Wrong again.
There are undoubtedly supporters of the UCP government and the conventional energy sector who are satisfied with the state of progress toward getting the pipeline built. There are credulous people who are certain that the project will eventually prove profitable despite the costs associated with the Pathways project and industrial carbon taxes and the need to assemble as much or more than $70 billion in capital to get the 1.0 million barrels per day pipeline and a new tidewater terminal approved and built. All that is required of the Government and taxpayers of Alberta is that they provide a mountain of patient capital and be willing to bankroll the project through years of losses.
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July 2 was supposed to be about route selection
The Carney—Smith meeting on July 2 was scheduled months earlier as the forum where the route of the pipeline would be finalized. There was also speculation that the private sector proponent(s) might be announced at the meeting.
On June 1, a CBC report revealed that Alberta officials had been engaged over the spring in route planning and discussions with First Nations along three routes from Alberta to the northern coast of BC.
One of the options was a line from Alberta to a terminal at Prince Rupert, the other two options were further North, with terminals on the Nasoga Gulf and Observation Inlet. The map provided below was released in conjunction with the CBC story. The CBC story claimed that a more southerly route was also under consideration. However, at least one industry analyst with government connections in Alberta indicated that the Southern route ranked low as a route preference. The northern options were shorter.
The terminals for the northern routes all fell under the purview of Bill C-48, the infamous Tanker Ban. They were all close to the northern boundary between the BC and Alaskan coasts, meaning at the northern tip of the area covered by the ban.
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Prior to imposing the Tanker Ban and killing the Northern Gateway pipeline, Justin Trudeau quipped, “The Great Bear Rainforest is no place for a pipeline.” The “Great Bear Rainforest” was a name concocted by environmentalists from BC to give the West coast an environmentally-vital sounding name. Activists were hopeful that rare, white-haired black bears living on Princess Royal Island and the nearby coastline could be protected from environmental hazards. The white bears’ range occupies a relatively small portion of the area covered by the Tanker Ban and is approximately 100 miles south of Prince Rupert, the nearest proposed terminal.
However, months ago in one of his few public remarks regarding the pipeline MOU negotiations, Mark Carney mumbled that a small carve out from the area encompassed by the Tanker Ban was possible.
Unfortunately, David Eby and BC’s fanatical tree huggers got their way. Eby has been hemorrhaging voter support and is desperately trying to retain the votes of environmentalists thinking about voting Green. Hence, Eby won. The Tanker Ban is one part of the Justin Trudeau legacy that Liberals, the NDP and Greens are loathe to tamper with.
The three Northern positions preferred by Alberta
Source: June 1, 2026 CBC News story
The prime minister met with Eby on July 2 prior to his scheduled meeting with Danielle Smith. Some of the statements to reporters after the meeting were a humiliating surprise for people who have spent years lobbying for the pipeline. For instance, BC was promised unearned financial rents from the pipeline. And Carney and Eby proudly announced that the Tanker Ban would remain sacrosanct.
The northern routes allegedly preferred by Alberta were thereby deemed unacceptable. The pipeline, if built, would be constructed adjacent to the Trans Mountain right of way with a terminal on the coast south of Vancouver. Actually, it turns out the southern route may prove to be have a few positive attributes.
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Here’s the somewhat okay news
The southern route has the advantage of being built in a corridor (adjacent to the existing Trans Mountain right of-way) where approvals and legal challenges have been previously settled. The plan for building a separate terminal for the new line is also a good idea. Locating the terminal in the Roberts Bank, Tsawwassen area will allow it to accommodate Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). These are the second largest class of oil tanker, each of these ships can transport from 1.8 million to 2.0 million barrels of oil when full—about what the pipeline will be able to transport in a single day.
The existing Trans Mountain Terminal on Burrard Inlet can only service tankers up to the Aframax size which range in capacity from 600,000 to 800,000 barrels when full. However the Inlet is too shallow to safely float Afrmax tankers when they are completely full. (Depth is apparently not a problem with the northern options.)
Readers might recall the story that ran in Pipeline Online a few weeks ago about the challenges associated with the Second Narrows railway bridge, which is one of two bridges tankers must pass under at the Second Narrows—the second bridge supports a highway for vehicle traffic. Both bridges are potential tanker collision sites.
Coincidentally, the week prior to the Thursday meetings, the federal government announced a multi-million dollar plan to dredge Burrard Inlet. Deepening the waterway will presumably allow the terminal to fill Aframax tankers up to their full capacity.
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Here’s the bad part
A reasonable argument can indeed be made on behalf of using the Trans Mountain corridor. But that isn’t the issue people will find most disturbing.
Perhaps the decision to announce changes to the original MOU at the Eby meeting as opposed to the already scheduled meeting between Carney and Smith was a mistake made by the PM’s staffers–a gross public relations goof-up. But what it came off like was an intentional effort to humble Albertans—a way to show the Liberal’s environmentally-friendly supporters that Carney is in charge of the process. He will not allow conventional energy producers from Alberta to run roughshod over Liberal climate policy. Pipeline proponents are merely supplicants not partners.
Carney and Eby announced concessions to BC that weren’t contained in the original November 25, 2025 MOU between Ottawa and Alberta. They announced that British Columbia must receive guaranteed financial benefits from the pipeline. Reporters likened this to a sort of BC royalty imposed on the project. In addition, they announced that BC must be indemnified against any environmental harms caused by an accident or oil spill. One would have expected this to be a matter of course, as it is with every other pipeline in the country.
Carney also stressed the need for First Nations participation in the project. This is something that is actually in the original MOU, but which Carney likes to re-announce with the regularity you would expect from an inveterate virtue signaler.
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The combined effect will leave some people with the impression Eby and Carney were grandstanding. They were sending a tough love message to Albertans and rubbing their noses in it. They left the impression that regardless of the negotiations that had been occurring since the original MOU was signed, BC and the federal government could unilaterally amend it. Representation by officials from Alberta is not required.
Maybe the BC royalty deal was previously negotiated between Alberta and Ottawa. But how would we know given the disturbing lack of transparency and behind closed doors secrecy surrounding discussions related to the MOU? You’d think they were designing the world’s first nuclear bomb.
Intentional or not it was a bad look, horribly inconsistent with what is required when hoping to reconcile competing interests. If it really was a negotiated compromise, Smith, Eby and Carney should have announced the changes together in the same room at the same time.
Instead, the day’s agenda set up Carney’s meeting with Danielle Smith as a bend the knee moment. Carney and Eby had laid down the law and defined the path forward while Smith waited to find out what the real decision makers had decided. It’s as though Carney is oblivious to the effect this approach could have on the upcoming referendum. Appearing to humiliate and bully Albertans and their premier is hardly compatible with cooperative federalism and good-faith negotiations. Carney has been accused by his own caucus members of being arrogant, egotistical and authoritarian. July 2 removed a lot of doubt on that score.
Danielle Smith may indeed have known what Carney and Eby were going to announce. The changes to the MOU may have been previously presented to officials from Alberta. If so, it was a mistake for Smith to have sat on that news right up until July 2.
No less frustrating to supporters of the pipeline is the growing impression the project has been designed specifically to accommodate and reward people who have nothing to do with actually building the pipeline or have been provided with government guaranteed loans to enable their participation. They may not be saying it publicly, but many people involved in the conventional energy sector are disturbed by what appear to be extortionate demands on the part of BC and a reconciliation movement that has gone too far.
The pipeline may yet be built and Albertans may allow the Smith government to bankroll it. But for many people on the prairies any new oil pipeline to the coast will be forever tainted by bitterness over 11 years of Liberal misrule and the absurd need to beg for permission to build a pipeline of benefit to all Canadians.
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