Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Premier Scott Moe at the Saskatchewan Oil and Gas Show in June. Photo by Brian Zinchuk
Alberta and BC have made agreements with Ottawa. A Saskatchewan agreement might focus on nuclear power
REGINA – What does the newly proposed West Coast Pipeline mean for Saskatchewan? It’s more than just oil, as movement on the new pipeline and associated agreements between the federal government and Alberta as well as British Columiba could lead to similar agreement with Saskatchewan which factors in our nuclear power generation aspirations.
That’s according to Premier Scott Moe, who spoke to Pipeline Online about that on July 3.
Calling the West Coast Pipeline positive, he said, “We have to, in the case of the West Coast, get additional barrels to likely largely Asian countries. It’s good not only for the increase in volume that we want to achieve in Canada and Saskatchewan and Alberta specifically, but it’s also good for reducing the basis, to some degree, because we also, alongside, need to be providing existing and additional barrels to the United States of America as well.”
He said, “It provides us an opportunity from an egress perspective to actually increase barrels of oil not only in the western side of the province, but down the west side, and across the southern portion of Saskatchewan, to free up some of that capacity for barrels that are heading to the United States of America, as well as any additional capacity that’s heading to the US Saskatchewan to be able to capitalize on as well.
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“You know, the structure in the conversation about how we’ve gotten to the announcement yesterday is probably not the traditional way that pipelines are built. We still, I think, have some work to do on the economic environment for increasing these barrels per day with respect to the MOU that was signed between Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith, but it’s all good steps forward.”
Last summer Moe told Pipeline Online that a pipeline to Prince Rupert was key. But now that a southern route has chosen, to Roberts Bank which should be able to handle supertankers. What does Moe think of the route chosen?
He said, “It’s fine. The goal here is to make Western Canadian barrels available to the world, and largely the Asian markets. So, this does that, so that, that is good,
“You know, selfishly, from Saskatchewan’s perspective, there was other indirect benefits of getting that infrastructure in place in Prince Rupert. It would lead to the port having some size and scope and efficiencies that come with that, for us to have some very real conversations around expanding Prince Rupert for other products, for example, agricultural products, and maybe even potash.
“But this is good, I mean, from the perspective of making barrels of oil available to the world on the West Coast of Canada, this is a positive.
“And when I was in India and, and in China, I asked the question of both trade ministers, if we could get more barrels available on the West Coast of Canada, would you buy them? And the answer was the same in both cases – every barrel.”
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Pipeline Online asked, “The route that was chosen for TMX saw that project go from $7.5 billion to around $34 billion, but conceivably all the issues with it were eventually figured out. Is it better to go with the devil you know than the one you don’t, even if it’s not to the preferable port that’s closer to Asia?”
Moe replied, “You know, I’ve said oftentimes when people say you can’t build a pipeline, because of detractors and people that don’t want it heading to Prince Rupert, or could it matter, wherever that might be, I say, ‘We just built one.’
“And this parallels the route that we as Canadians just built one on. So that does make sense. I understand it. It’s fine. And you know, at the end of the day, the goal is to make those barrels available on the West Coast of Canada.
“This achieves that. It’s maybe a little different route, and a different conversation to get there, but it’s it achieves what the goal is, which is to make Western Canadian barrels available to the world, so credit to all involved.
“But as I say, there’s still more work to do on this, on the production side, on the actual construction, what the cost of that construction will be, what the ownership looks like, there still a lot of work to do.”
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How pipeline impacts Saskatchewan negotiations
Hours before the pipeline announcement, Prime Minister Mark Carney was in BC with Premier David Eby, announcing an agreement which would see federal support for four LNG projects, Roberts Bank development, highway tunnels a northern power line and more. Is Saskatchewan next? And if so, what issues are we looking at?
Moe said, “The most significant issue, first of all, on the infrastructure. Any port infrastructure in the Port of Vancouver space is positive for Saskatchewan. We’ve been advocating on behalf of that federal investment for some period of time, and back to the days of (former BC Premier) John Horgan, when John and I used to talk, I would say, ‘John, you want to get a million or 2 million people into downtown Vancouver each and every day. We want to get a couple 100 trains into the port of Vancouver every day, and it’s best if that goes, if all of that can happen in a seamless way.’
And so we very much have aligned with British Columbia on the need for port infrastructure, and the last maybe 50 or 100 kilometers of that infrastructure moving in literally my entire time in office, which is close to a decade now.”
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How a pipeline leads to reactors
As for Saskatchewan issues, Moe said they would be very much on the economic side. He said, “Looking at some of the policies that were brought in the last 10 years, in a similar way that we see agreements in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. We’ve been engaging for a period of time. I’d say those that engagement is intensifying, as we speak, with respect to what our electricity transition plan is going to look like in Saskatchewan, and how we’re going to ensure that we have affordable, reliable electricity for all of the investments that are being made, most importantly for the families that live here, and charting what that future looks like.
“That is the most significant challenge for Saskatchewan industry, Saskatchewan jobs, and I would say for each of us, as families, in accessing a reliable, affordable power moving forward.
“Case in point, when you look at the MOU with Alberta and the emissions reductions that are being looked at in the oil industry, one of the ways to achieve those emissions reductions is to change your source of power from something fossil fuel-based, like natural gas, to something nuclear, and that is the very discussions that we are embarking on is how do we get to that nuclear future in an affordable way, and I think the federal government is open to what that path might look like.”
Westinghouse AP1000 reactors at Vogtle. This model is one of the leading contenders of 1,000 megawatt-scale reactors Saskatchewan is considering. Cameco
Intertie announcement suggest large reactors
Pipeline Online said, “There were some big announcements in the last two weeks. That 2,000 megawatt intertie (to Manitoba) seems to be a clear indicator that we’re indeed going to be building large reactors in southeast Saskatchewan instead of small ones, and you kind of hinted at that when you were on Bray last week. Why else would we need a 2,000 megawatt intertie to Manitoba, except for building large reactions?”
Moe responded, “Well, and it ties into the intertie that we’re currently building in the Southwest Power Pool in the US. And then, as well, our connections into the north, as we’re building a 230 kV line up the northwestern side of our province, as we seek to service communities and mine sites in that space as well.
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“When the conversation around small modular reactors or large-scale reactors, basically 315 megawatts versus 1000 or 1100 megawatts happens, there’s no doubt, and it’s fairly accepted – I was just in Europe, it’s fairly accepted part of the conversation there, in the US, that the large-scale reactors are going to be more affordable on a per megawatt basis. And as we look and have the goal of affordable, reliable power, the large scale reactors look to be a much more affordable way to provide not only the eventually the replacement electricity that we’ll need for some of our generation sources today, but for the additional power that we’re going to need to power the industries that are making investments here today, and the many more that are going to make investments in the future, and we expect a lot of that to come in the energy industry or the oil industry itself,
“So now the caveat to that is, in a 4,000 to 5000 megawatt current environment that we have, how do you operate 1,000 megawatt reactors when virtually all of our other generators are, 300 megawatt range or less? So there’s some operational challenges to that we’ve asked SaskPower to look at. Can we actually operate one, two, or possibly even three large-scale reactors in the province to power what will be a larger power grid moving forward? And how do we do that with the current infrastructure we have? And what infrastructure will we need in order for that to be able to happen?
“And so these interties are part of that conversation, and but the small modular reactor, the large reactor, and how Saskatchewan moves forward – that conversation hasn’t arrived at a decision point yet, but it’s fairly common knowledge that the large scale reactors will be more affordable.”
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Conclusion
In conclusion on the pipeline announcement, Moe said, “I would add this: we’re sitting in Saskatchewan with over 60 major projects with over $62 billion of investment, largely in the mining industry, some in the ag industry, and some continued investment in the oil and gas industry, with the discussion that’s happening now about egress capacity, but the economic operating environment that isn’t exclusive to Alberta or the oil sands, that opportunity is for Western Canada, I would say, largely to really attract the next significant tens of billions of dollars investment in the energy industry.
“This has been a long overdue conversation, and it’s not perfect, but it is happening, and it is going to be incumbent on all of us to work together to find a way to land that investment, land those opportunities, jobs, and really push our energy, our energy industry into a much more positive future than we’ve seen in the last decade.”
Editor’s note: Retired Senator David Tkatchuk will be the guest on the Pipeline Online Podcast at noon on Monday, July 6. Tkatchuk was a vocal opponent of Bill C-69 – and years later we can see why. Watch live on X, Facebook or YouTube, or come to Pipeline Online to check out the recording posted for Tuesday morning.
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