Jim Warren is a recovering academic as retired adjunct professor and lecturer in environmental sociology at the University of Regina.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, right, signs an MOU with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in Calgary, Alta., Thursday, Nov. 27, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh
Danielle Smith provided another upbeat, optimistic message to supporters of conventional energy at last week’s Global Energy Show in Calgary.
Smith has been consistently defying skeptics, including yours truly, who’ve doubted the Alberta-Ottawa MOU, signed in November 2025, will result in a new oil pipeline being built from Alberta to the Pacific. Her energy show comments added a few new and convincing dimensions to the case for optimism regarding the pipeline and the long-term future of Alberta’s conventional energy sector.
The scope of the Alberta premier’s optimism extends to her goal of increasing Alberta’s oil production to 8 million barrels per day by 2035.
However, since the theme of this column is focused on the prime minister and his willingness to facilitate the construction of the Pacific pipeline, the most relevant points in Smith’s presentation include the role oil prices play in cost-of-living issues, as well as how dependent Canada’s economic well-being is on our ability to export petroleum and natural gas.
According to Smith, in the wake of a succession of geopolitical shocks such as the war in Ukraine, Trump’s trade war with the rest of the world, and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, nearly every major economy has experienced inflationary pressures in recent years, with energy costs playing a central role.
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She told energy show delegates “The world has come to the conclusion that affordable, reliable energy is absolutely essential for the health of their citizens.” At the heart of the high cost of living added Smith, “is inflated energy prices energy, which build into the cost of everything.”
The high cost of living, Canada’s weakened economy (we are now the only G7 country in recession), runaway spending and fiscal mismanagement are political kryptonite for Mark Carney. They fly in the face of his reputation as an international economic wizard, which is what got him elected Liberal leader and prime minister in the first place.
Prior to Carney announcing his intention to run for the Liberal leadership, the Liberal government and party were toast. They were headed for the political scrap heap. There is no question about the fact most of the Liberal caucus owes Carney for their survival as MPs and their seats on the government side of the House.
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What the people say
One of the great ironies in Canadian federal politics today is the fact poll after poll has shown that the Liberals have failed to deliver meaningful solutions for the issues and problems of most concern to Canadians.
Table 1 below presents a sampling of data from the most recent Cross-Canada Outlook poll published by Angus Reid. The pollsters asked respondents to name the three political issues that most concerned them—these are described as Canadians top of mind concerns.
The sample presented in the table below compares the top-of-mind results for Saskatchewan, an oil producing province that tends to vote Conservative in federal elections, with three provinces which have little to no oil, and, which frequently elect Liberal MPs—British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec.
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As is the case for every province in Canada, with the exception of PEI whose residents were not polled, the high cost of living is the issue of greatest concern by a wide margin (averaging 61% for all Canadians polled). The issues in second and third place are not the same for all provinces but are limited to two of the following: health care, housing affordability, the economy and jobs.
A separate Angus Reid poll published June 12 suggests the government’s failure to respond adequately to voters’ concerns has had a negative effect on their levels of satisfaction with the Carney Liberals’ performance. Of the 4,237 Canadians polled, 46% claim Canada is on the wrong track. Only 31% of those polled think the government has us heading in the right direction.
Here is another irony, the government’s poor performance ratings have not been reflected to any great extent in party preference polls which ask voters, “If an election were called today which party would you support?” In fact, as Table 2 below indicates, of the six national party preference polls conducted from May 30 to June 7, only the Angus Reid poll shows a significant drop in Liberal support relative to their next closest opponent, the Conservatives.
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A Leger poll published May 31, just seven days earlier, shows the Liberals preferred by 50 per cent of voters with a whopping 16 point lead over the Conservatives.
Which of the polls, the Leger poll or the Angus Reid poll, should we consider the outlier? Alternatively, does one of them reflect an emerging political reality? Time will tell. Nonetheless, it is reasonable to assume that if the government remains unable to satisfactorily address voters’ top of mind concerns in the coming months its popularity and electoral prospects will eventually suffer.
This is especially problematic for a government with a shaky four seat majority. As recent events have shown party standings in Canada’s House of Commons are affected by ethically challenged floor crossers.
An economic necessity
If our prime minister is as talented as his résumé and the legacy media say he is, he will know the optimal solution to solving Canada’s economic woes is to expedite the growth in Canada’s conventional energy production and tear down the barriers standing in the way of new oil and gas pipelines to customers in addition to the US.
Danielle Smith aptly illuminated the way forward at the Global Energy Show.
Smith pointed to the increasing interest in Canadian oil and gas in East Asia and Europe. This is understandable given Western Canada is blessed with among the highest proven oil and gas reserves globally. And we have a reputation as a politically stable democracy (despite periodic separation referenda) with a solid track record as a reliable supplier of conventional energy. While not many people are saying it out loud, these are the sorts of conditions that could encourage Asian investment in the proposed pipeline to the Pacific.
There are currently several oil export pipeline projects on the drawing board. They include plans to increase the capacity of the Trans Mountain pipeline by 360,000 bpd; the proposed Prairie Connector pipeline that will allow for another 550,000 bpd of Western Canadian crude to be exported to the US; as well as the likelihood Enbridge will be increasing its ability to transport more Canadian oil to the US, and; the million bpd pipeline to the Pacific proposed in the Ottawa MOU.
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Leaving aside the additional barrels per day Enbridge expansions might generate, the projects listed above would increase Canadian oil exports to the US and Asia by 1.86 million barrels per day, which would contribute an additional $38.4 billion to Canada’s economy annually. Just imagine the contribution Danielle Smith’s ambitious plan to raise Alberta’s oil production and exports to 8 million bpd by 2035 would make to Canada’s flagging GDP.
There is no other readily exploitable source of new revenue besides conventional energy exports that can so quickly and substantially contribute billions to Canada’s economy. What other industry is there that could contribute so much so fast?
As I have flippantly suggested in previous articles, it won’t be Ontario’s troubled auto industry that saves us. Ontario’s Ring of Fire mining opportunities could take decades to develop. The Atlantic cod fishery and wine from the Okanagan won’t be enough. A significant level of economic growth won’t be provided by our crystalline silicon and solar panel manufacturing sector, because we don’t have one. Other Liberal brain waves like EV battery plants, electric buses and cricket ranching haven’t worked.
Our prime minister knows all this. The foregoing discussion of the political and economic benefits of substantially increasing our oil and gas exports suggest he ought to be an enthusiastic supporter of new oil and gas export pipelines to the US and Canadian tidewater.
Prime Minister Mark Carney listens as B.C. Premier David Eby, not seen, speaks in Vancouver on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ethan Cairns
Yes, but…
There are forces pulling Carney in the opposite direction—away from conventional energy and back to the Liberals’ 11 year crusade to prevent what they assume are dangerous levels of global warming.
For example, a couple of weeks ago fourteen Liberal MPs sent the prime minister a letter proclaiming their opposition to the concessions he was making in support of getting an oil pipeline to tidewater. They were disturbed by what they viewed as Carney’s environmental backsliding. He had committed the sin of toning down some of Canada’s excessively zealous and politically unpopular environment and climate policies—the sacred green legacy of the Justin Trudeau Liberals.
Making matters worse, Carney has promised to change course and reverse some of his decisions. What else could a prime minister with a narrow four seat majority do?
Lots!
As a first step the prime minister’s staff should provide him with a review of the polling on voters’ top of mind issues. Doing battle with climate change is not as popular as it was in the early days of Justin Trudeau’s term as prime minister. Table 1 in this article suggests the fourteen member climate alarmist cabal is now on the wrong side of history.
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The high cost of living, housing affordability, the weak economy and jobs have left concerns about climate change and the environment in the dust. Even in Quebec, B.C. and Ontario, provinces which have traditionally been among the most supportive of the green transition, the environment and climate change now rank 8th, 9th and 10th respectively in priority among voters top of mind issues; and many percentage points behind the top three issues. Furthermore, many voters now believe that overly zealous emissions reduction mandates and carbon taxes have contributed to the high cost of living and many of Canada’s other economic woes.
The prime minister is not living on the horns of a dilemma. If he is, it’s only in his own head. Over the past several decades Canada’s prime ministers have become increasing powerful. They exercise tremendous control over the parliamentary agenda, their cabinets and caucuses. Openly challenging government policy and/or the prime minister can ensure a backbencher never makes it to Cabinet and never gets the boost in salary, prestige and lavish expense account that goes with Cabinet posts.
Mark Carney is especially blessed in this regard given that he is the principal reason the Liberals’ won the last election. Before he announced his bid for the Liberal leadership the party was headed for a massive electoral defeat. Dropping him as party leader would be political malpractice.
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Sure, recently there has been some whining about Carney’s gruff management style and failure to abide by climate orthodoxy. However, his popularity is far from being in freefall and without him the current Liberal caucus is probably incapable of winning a federal election.
Another facet of Carney’s power over his caucus is the fact the leaders of Canada’s political parties have the power to prevent people they do not approve of from running for election under their party’s banner.
Carney and his advisors know all this, so there is a good chance some of the “Green 14” have had a proverbial trip to the woodshed. Maybe they were called into the Prime Minister’s Office or it might have been a message delivered in a whisper at a cocktail party—wherever it was somebody will have read them the riot act. We have good reason to expect their clown car will soon be in the ditch if it isn’t there already.
The bottom line
The big takeaway is that Danielle Smith’s optimism regarding the prospects for an oil pipeline to the Pacific getting built may not be misplaced. There will no doubt be hiccups on the way to getting the pipeline built and operating. However, the evidence and logic supporting her position are compelling. Alberta’s premier is a bright, sensible and serious person. If she hasn’t given up on the MOU, neither should we.
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