First – the debate. Next – the analysis

 

REGINA – Just how much will the refurbishment of the coal-fired power generation fleet cost? The Saskatchewan Party government says $2.6 billion by 2035. The NDP says $26 billion by 2050. At issue? Timelines, what to include in that number, and how accurate are those numbers?

And in the balance is whether or not the lights turn on when you flip the switch in 2035 and onward, as well as the jobs and livelihoods of at least 1,100 coal workers, and the survival of three power plants, two mines, Estevan, Coronach and Bienfait. And then there’s that $12 billion data centre at Regina, announced as a direct result of Saskatchewan’s plans to refurbish its coal fleet and bring Boundary Dam Units 4 and 5 out of retirement and back into operation.

(Note, both 1,100 and 1,400 coal-related jobs have been used at various times.)

Climatic showdown

As the spring legislative session nears its end, the climax of the session generally is the three hour debate over the “premier’s estimates,” as the last portion of the budgetary approval. This is generally an opportunity for the Leader of the Opposition to go one-on-one with the Premier and take their biggest shots before the Legislature rises for the summer a few days later.

So it was with this in mind that the NDP dropped what they’re portraying as their biggest “gotcha,” a leaked document purportedly from a SaskPower board of directors presentation which discusses coal refurbishment and nuclear power generation plans.

The document, itself, was emailed to media right around the time NDP Leader Carla Beck brought it up in her questioning of Premier Scott Moe. And over the next 24 hours, there was a full-court press of NDP MLAs posting social media videos about the big “$26 billion,” but without much explanation of context. And that context matters.

And it was the following day, May 7, that Question Period was again dominated by the topic, but this time, the government had a chance to digest what had been dropped on them the day before, and the premier and various minister’s answers sought to provide context to just what is being discussed, and should be included in those numbers. If you bought a car, for instance, does its price include all fuel, oil, maintenance and insurance for 25 years?

Along the way, there was an awful lot of reference to LNG, and how Beck and her team, in extolling their “Grid and Growth Plan 2026” had, on multiple occasions, mistakenly said LNG (liquefied natural gas), when they actually simply meant natural gas (Beck acknowledged, for the second time in a little over a week, she had misspoke when saying “LNG”, but Moe was having none of it, and kept bringing it up in his responses.)

According to Hansard, on May 6, LNG was mentioned 35 times, nearly all by Moe, while “$26 billion” was mentioned 17 times, mostly by Beck. The following day, “26 billion” was said 34 times, again by the NDP. And it that number was quoted over and over and over in social media postings by the NDP.

 

Background

So what’s this all about?

In January, 2025, Minister of Crown Investments Corp. and Minister Responsible for SaskPower Jeremy Harrison made it know the government was reconsidering the future of coal-fire power generation, which, by federal coal regulations, is supposed to shut down by Dec. 31, 2029. On June 18, 2025, Harrison sent an email to SaskPower workers, telling them that instead of shutting down the coal fleet, SaskPower would instead be refurbishing it – all seven units across three power stations, as a bridge to nuclear power. Later that fall he spoke of planned expenditures of $900 million by 2029. This was an initial number for the first four years.

That’s when he announced the Energy Security Strategy on Oct. 20, focusing on the necessity of baseload power generation as well as an “all of the above” approach. But key to it was keeping coal going until nuclear power was ready. It was announced on the first day of an inaugural Canadian Nuclear Association West conference.

In early 2026, the minister put forward two planned rate increases for rate payers over the next two years. And through the rate review process, SaskPower’s plans received greater detail – including a schedule and a larger dollar figure, of $2.6 billion. That number included all the planned work, finishing with the last unit in 2035.

The NDP made hay of this new number, $2.6 billion, but really cranked up the rhetoric on May 7, saying that in fact the actual number was $26 billion. Some of that rhetoric openly mocked coal workers, saying they could each be sent a cheque for $10 million and the province would still have lots of money left over, if it didn’t proceed with this project. Those coal workers will otherwise lose their jobs if the refurbishment does not take place.

The NDP press release of May 7 stated, “For $26 billion, Saskatchewan could:

• Build six or seven brand-new natural gas plants
• Fully finance the Sask. Party’s own small modular reactor plans, or even build a massive conventional nuclear reactor
• Write a roughly $10-million cheque to every impacted coal worker and miner in Saskatchewan and still have billions left over”

Those coal workers have not taken kindly to the NDP’s rhetoric, and in coming days Pipeline Online will publish letters from both the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and United Mine Workers of America to that effect.

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Leaked document

Here’s where the NDP got that $26 billion number from:

The leaked document was photographed from a presentation that was meant for the SaskPower board. Time references in the document put it no earlier than mid-2025.

The first slides said the process was started in November, 2024, and was an order of magnitude estimate prepared (+100/-50%)

• 25 year life extension – $11.4 billlion
• Transmission – $1.4 billion
• Fuel cost – $13 billion

These numbers were quoted by Beck in her questioning of Moe, as well as in the NDP press release. But they were not the headline numbers the NDP used in their full court social media press. That was the often repeated “$26 billion.”

In opening up the topic, Beck said, “We have obtained leaked internal documents from SaskPower showing that the costs are now projected at over $26 billion. Mr. Chair, that is more than 30 times the initial cost that that minister put forward. That is 10 times what that Premier just said.

“Can the Premier please explain to the people of this province — the ones who are going to be paying those costs not just today but far into the future — how those costs went from $900 million to $26 billion? And I suggest he listen to this question. Was he aware of those numbers that that minister was green-lighting or was he kept out of the loop? And I suggest that he answer carefully because this is going to matter.”

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The slide show document was photocopied for Moe and he took some time to review it before responding. After noting the breakdown listed above, he said, “All I can speak to is, information that we’ve been provided is the most recent Hatch report on our coal refurbishment, $2.6 billion, Mr. Speaker. And I would put that report and utilizing our existing assets, Mr. Speaker, alongside the plan that we saw put forward by the members opposite. We’re not going to switch to products like LNG and be reliant on the US [United States] or British Columbia or anywhere else in the world.”

Beck pointed out that $26 billion is greater than the 2026-27 provincial budget of $22 billion.

Moe then replied that the number the NDP stressed included fuel costs and transmission costs.

The following day, after having time to look deeper into Beck’s line of questioning, Moe had a more fulsome answer during Question Period, when Beck repeated her questions from the day before.

 

Moe said, “What they are stating, Mr. Speaker, what they are stating is the full amount of all of the operational costs, all of the fuel costs, all of the carbon tax costs that they would put on that fuel, Mr. Speaker, and including that in the upfront costs.

“Let’s compare this to, Mr. Speaker, when a Saskatchewan family might buy an automobile. There is the price of that automobile. What the NDP are including is the cost of all of the fuel that you would purchase over the next 25 years; all of the oil changes and the service that you would purchase over the next 25 years; all of the insurance costs that you would have over the course of the next 25 years; and saying, that’s the actual cost that you’d need to pay today to use that vehicle over the course of the next 25 years, Mr. Speaker.

“The families in Saskatchewan know that isn’t how you calculate the cost when you buy a vehicle, Mr. Speaker. And families in Saskatchewan know the same, and that’s why they don’t take the NDP seriously.”

And that’s where the debate hinged. Throughout the two days, the NDP kept saying coal refurbishment would cost $26 billion, and the Saskatchewan Party government said it’s actually $2.6 billion, and you wouldn’t include the cost of fuel in that calculation.

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SaskPower VP

SaskPower vice-president, Asset Strategy and Planning Gregg Milbrandt, spoke to reporters on May 7 alongside Harrison. Milbrandt was asked to break down the $11.4 billion in capital referenced in the leaked document.

Milbrandt said, “Out of the $11.4 (billion), $2.6 (billion) is the capital life extension cost. Within that cost, there was also a value for sustainment. So that is also ongoing capital. As you can imagine, equipment wears out, and you need to continue to reinvest, much like you do, as was mentioned, in your vehicle today, you have something that goes the vehicle. You need to put more money back into that.

“There’s also the operating costs, which include our salaries for, obviously, employees that work in those facilities. We have contract costs that support the operation of those facilities. And we’ve got material costs, and obviously go back as materials, as items and components wear out.”

Harrison told reporters, “With regard to the documents that were released by the NDP yesterday, so SaskPower has determined those documents to be an incomplete, early draft of a presentation to the board that was specifically regarding the planning for the coal repowering initiative. So what we can confirm as well, though, and vice president Milbrandt can confirm as well, as he did in committee the other night, $2.6 billion is the capital cost estimated for the entire repowering initiative. That’s what we have been planning from.”

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On May 7, the NDP brought forward a motion in the house to “make all SaskPower costing documents public.” The motion was defeated.

Beck said in a press release, “This is yet another cover up on top of a cover up — and ultimately Saskatchewan people pay the price,” Beck said. “We know this coal plan is a catastrophe and will saddle us with crushing debt for generations to come.

“Scott Moe and his Minister won’t even come clean and tell the truth as they drown us in red ink.

“It clearly is time for a government that is upfront, truthful and that has a real and credible plan for Saskatchewan. It’s time for change.”

By late Thursday night, the NDP posted several edited clips of Harrison and Moe appearing on the Pipeline Online Podcast in 2025, then showing headlines with the “$26 billion” number.

Harrison sent this statement by email on May 7:

 

The Saskatchewan NDP are proving once again why they cannot be taken seriously.

We have been clear that the capital cost for refurbishing and life extending our existing thermal coal generation assets as a bridge to nuclear generation is 2.6B dollars.

The draft slide documents released by the NDP confirm this. The $26 billion figure the NDP is citing includes the cost of fuel, operation, transmission, and maintenance over 25 years.

Presenting two and a half decades of operating, maintenance, and sustainment costs as though they are a single upfront capital bill is completely misleading.

Regardless of the generation source, there are substantial costs associated with building, operating, maintaining, and sustaining any major power generation asset.

The actual capital investment associated with the life extension work itself is approximately $2.6 billion. This number was confirmed by Hatch. This is also roughly equivalent to the cost of one natural gas plant.

To put this into perspective, this would be like calculating the “cost” of a new hospital by including not only the construction cost, but also 25 years of staffing, operations, maintenance, equipment replacement, utilities, and patient services and then presenting that entire number as though it were the upfront construction bill.

If the NDP want an honest apples-to-apples comparison, the cost to build, operate and maintain a natural gas fleet for 25 years would be substantially higher than $26 billion.

As a result of our plan, we are life-extending existing coal facilities that currently provide more than a third of Saskatchewan’s grid with affordable, reliable baseload power.

Unlike the NDP’s approach, our plan does not contemplate overreliance on importing fuel for Saskatchewan’s energy security. Our plan does not involve sending the equivalent of 25 years of Saskatchewan resource royalties out of province to import energy resources we already produce ourselves.

 

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Analysis (Editorial):

Let’s dig into the numbers, as well as compare the NDP’s plan to the SaskParty’s and see how many billions we come up with.

The government of Saskatchewan owns most of the coal that is mined for power generation. It collects around $25 million in coal royalties per year, effectively a rounding error considering the scope of the figures involved. Harrison frequently refers to the coal as “free,” because the people of Saskatchewan own it. But Westmoreland Mining is paid about a third of a billion dollars per year to mine that coal. Most of that money actually stays within Saskatchewan, via salaries, suppliers (fuel, bolts, hydraulics, machining etc.), and taxes.

SaskPower’s annual report for 2024-25 shows fuel costs of $313 million for coal, and $316 million for natural gas. According to Harrison, about 90 per cent of the natural gas SaskPower consumes comes from Alberta. And that squares with numbers Pipeline Online has reported from the Ministry of Energy and Resources as well as the Government of Alberta. Saskatchewan’s domestic natural gas production has plummeted over the last two decades, with only five gas wells drilled over the last 10 years. Last fall, Alberta was drilling as many as 31 gas wells per day, which means if you started at midnight, by 4 a.m., Alberta would have drilled more gas wells than Saskatchewan drilled in the last decade. What remaining gas production there is in Saskatchewan comes from associated gas with oil production.

That $313 million for coal is also based on the fact the coal fleet has not had Boundary Dam 4 and 5 operating, as they were retired in recent years – BD5 in late 2024. And the coal fleet, in general is used less as other power sources are available, including hydro, natural gas and wind (solar is negligible).

If you took that $313 million, and multiplied it by 25 years, you get $7.8 billion. Add in increased inflation over that time, plus restoring BD4 and 5 to operation, plus higher usage, and indeed it is possible to see a fuel cost of around $13 billion, as reflected by the leaked document.

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However, it would take four new natural gas power stations just like the Aspen Power Station currently under construction to replace the existing 1,500 megawatts of coal capacity (inclusive of BD4 and 5). At $1.7 billion, Aspen will be nearly triple the $605 million its clone Chinook cost in 2019, and over double the $825 million its other clone, Great Plains, cost in 2024. Harrison said on May 7 the expected cost of additional natural plants of that type, with 370 megawatts capacity, would be $2.5 billion each.

But look at the fuel costs – shutting down coal and replacing it with new plants would likely increase gas consumption by a factor of 2x compared to today. And the price of natural gas is significantly variable. In 2022-23, Saskatchewan paid $449 million, substantially more than the $316 in 2024-25. Current AECO futures markets indicate gas prices are expected to nearly double from the current $1.50 per gigajoule to peaks of $3.00 per gigajoule each winter from 2027 to 2029. And a year ago those futures were indicating as much as $3.75.

The unknown factor is how much impact building additional LNG export capacity will have on Western Canadian gas. Harrison pointed out international prices are now $18 for similar units. The entire purpose of building multiple LNG facilities is to get a better price on the international market. So in all likelihood, natural gas prices will be going up, one way or another, while coal’s fuel cost (but not the cost of mining it) will stay consistent – next to zero – a rounding error.

In 2022-23, natural gas prices varied from a high of $6.53/gigajoule to a low of $2.24 per gigajoule. That year SaskPower spent $449 million on natural gas fuel – this was before Great Plains Power Station came online. Taking the 2022 price for natural gas and how much was spent, replacing coal with natural gas for 25 years would be $449×25 = $11.2 billion.

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If prices go up 50 percent from that 2022 level, which is quite possible over 25 years, then you get $16.8 billion for natural gas fuel costs. If fuel costs double from 2022 levels, then you’re looking at $22.4 billion.

And that does not include existing natural gas plants and usage – that’s just to replace coal. The big difference is that nearly all of that money will be going to Alberta – to Alberta gas companies, and Alberta royalties. If a similar amount was indeed spent on coal in Saskatchewan, nearly all of that money would stay in Saskatchewan, minus Westmoreland’s corporate profits.

If you’re wondering why current low gas prices are not being considered, but rather a recent peak – hoping gas prices stay near rock bottom is an unrealistic and risky plan, at best. LNG exports are certainly going to increase continental prices, never mind good-old inflation.

As for the inclusion of transmission lines upgrades, no matter what the power source – wind, natural gas, coal or nuclear, work will need to be done on aging transmission lines. To use Moe’s analogy of factoring car expenses, this would mean including the cost of repaving your driveway as part of the car expenses. You’re going to have to repave it anyhow, whether you have an electric car, a pickup, or a bicycle. Transmission costs will be required no matter what the generation source.

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The NDP have spoken of converting the existing lignite coal power stations to natural gas usage. This had indeed been done successfully in Alberta. However, there’s a big difference, in that the boilers at Saskatchewan’s coal plants are meant for lignite coal, which burns much cooler than Alberta’s sub-bituminous coal or natural gas. (the joke is lignite barely burns, and that’s not far off.) Those boilers may not be suited to handle the much-hotter natural gas as a fuel source. Pipeline Online spoke to a very credible source on Wednesday who explained it was unlikely those lignite coal boilers could be converted to natural gas.

And if that is indeed the case, then, yes, you would have to build new natural gas plants to replace that coal capacity of 1,500 megawatts – four of them. The current price of $1.7 billion would put that at $6.8 billion for four. But if the price is indeed $2.5 billion each, (consistent with recent price escalations) then the cost would be $10 billion. And that, in turn, assumes no escalation from new plants 1 to 4.

The question remains – is it cheaper to make use of existing infrastructure, existing buildings, switchyards, transformers, transmission lines, facilities, roads and the like, to rebuild three coal plants, or start from scratch and do greenfield construction of four new natural gas plants?

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If the NDP are to replace coal with natural gas, as they say – and you include the exact same factors they included in their press release, you get this:

1500 megawatts	Coal (leaked document)	NDP (new build)
Capital	$11.4 billion	$10 billion (4x$2.5B/plant)
Transmission	$1.4 billion	$1.4 billion (carried over)
Fuel cost	$13 billion	$11.2 to $16.8 billion

 

Let’s say you totally discount the minister and premier’s assertions that the coal refurbishment are not $2.6 billion, but $26 billion. By the same measures, the NDP plan, which would require four new greenfield gas plants, and the natural gas to fuel them, could be $22.6 to $28.2 billion. And while the bulk of the fuel cost for coal stays within the Saskatchewan economy, nearly all the fuel cost for natural gas will go west to enrich the Alberta economy, building Alberta hospitals and schools.

So if the NDP are right, then it’s actually close to a wash, between the cost of their plan and what they say the SaskParty’s plan is. But if the SaskParty is right, then there’s a huge difference in total cost.

One more thing: The NDP keep making a big deal about $26 billion to run 1500 megawatts of power generation for 25 years. That’s just over a billion per year? Okay, what do they expect 1500 megawatts to cost, per year? What’s they’re number?

What is fallacy to say is we could just cut a check for every miner and coal power plant worker for $10 million (presumably to make them go away) and we’d still have money to spare for everything else. That was rude and insulting to every one of those people, most of which are union members. If any of them still have an NDP membership, they’re probably burning it this weekend.

 

Statements by various NDP MLAs imply that money doesn’t need to be spent on power, but rather on social issues. NDP SaskPower Critic Aleana Young posted a video saying, “$26 billion buys a lot of schools, a lot of hospitals.” That ignores the reality that no matter what we do – there is a cost to powering the economy. And there is a much, much greater cost in letting the lights go out.

Then we will have no economy.

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