Letters to the Editor can be sent to brian.zinchuk@pipelineonline.ca
The Cenovus Christina Lake oilsands facility steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pad southeast of Fort McMurray, Alta., on Wednesday, April 24, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Amber Bracken
Editor’s note: Alex Filstein, P.Eng, might better be known as his X handle @RazorOil. He is prolific in his highly detailed and knowledgeable online content about the oil industry, and in particular oil sands/heavy oil. He has advanced 13 patents related to oil sands emissions reduction technologies. You can read more about him here.
Alex Filstein
Open Letter
To the CEOs of the Oil Sands Alliance (formerly Pathways Alliance):
Industry Leaders:
Mr. Jon McKenzie, CEO, Cenovus Energy
Mr. Ryan Lance, CEO, ConocoPhillips
Mr. Rich Kruger, CEO, Suncor Energy
Mr. N. Murray Edwards, Executive Chairman, CNRL
Mr. John Whelan, CEO, Imperial Oil
Subject: Request to Reevaluate, Postpone or Reconsider the Pathways CCUS Project
Dear Leaders,
I am writing to you as a subject matter expert with deep operational and technical experience in SAGD and solvent-assisted recovery technologies and as a loyal advocate and investor in the industry.
I have invented several technologies in this space, launched collaborative development programs across industry organizations, and played a significant role in advancing practical SAGD optimization and solvent technologies over the past 15 years. This includes co-founding key industry initiatives such as the COSIA/Pathways Solvent Consortium. I also managed an environmental opportunity fund and have served as a board observer for companies advancing environmentally-driven technologies that benefit the energy sector. I have taught SAGD and optimization technologies in SAIT’s Petroleum Engineering capstone program for the past 14 years.
I may also hold the unofficial world record for injecting more propane and butane into SAGD wells than any human being on Earth.
My perspective is shaped by a strong bias toward practical, field-proven technology development that delivers both emission reductions and economic value, an approach I believe is essential as our industry navigates a rapidly changing energy landscape.
I respectfully urge you to reevaluate the current CCUS-focused strategy considering four fundamental shifts occurring in our operating environment:
- The scale of the challenge demands more than partial capture.
In-situ thermal operations alone, based on an assumed average emission intensity of 60 kg CO₂ per barrel and not considering mining operations, are projected to emit approximately 43.8 Mt CO₂ annually by 2030. The Pathways CCUS project aims to capture up to 4.2 Mt CO₂/year by 2030 and 62 Mt CO₂/year by 2050 (Source: Natural Resources Canada).
While these are ambitious targets, they fall short of addressing the full scope of emissions growth from existing and planned smaller modular greenfield operations considering 80% of our oil sands reserves can’t be recovered by mining. We must deploy every available lever, not just end-of-pipe capture, to achieve meaningful net reductions.
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- Operational technologies already deliver substantial emission reductions today.
Recent advancements in Non-Condensable Gas (NCG) co-injection, combined with improved flow control devices, well-pair spacing optimization, and infill well strategies, are proving highly effective in reducing emissions.
For example, one SAGD asset producing approximately 9,000 bbl/d, successfully reduced its steam-to-oil ratio from 5.0 to 3.4 by cutting steam injection from 44,000 bbl/d to 25,000 bbl/d over the past 9 years, a 43% reduction due to NCG co-injection. Because steam generation is the primary source of emissions in SAGD, this translates directly into proportional CO₂ reductions. Scaled across the industry, these technologies could deliver emission reductions comparable to the initial targets of the Pathways CCUS project, and do so at a fraction of the capital intensity.
- The industry is shifting toward smaller, modular SAGD developments.
While the Alliance members continue impressive brownfield expansions at low cost of supply, nearly 100% of recent greenfield growth is coming from companies outside the Alliance. These operators are deploying smaller, modular SAGD facilities that often cannot economically tie into a large centralized CCUS network due to geography and scale. This creates a structural disadvantage for nimble innovators and risks slowing overall industry progress in reducing emissions.
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- We can create jobs and drive innovation by prioritizing solvent and process technologies.
The Pathways project rightly emphasizes job creation and long-term CCUS capability in Alberta. However, equivalent or greater benefits can be realized by accelerating development and deployment of solvent-based and hybrid recovery technologies that further reduce steam (and therefore emissions) at the source. These solutions offer strong continued employment for technical professionals and a more sustainable path for both present and emerging producers.
Additionally, according to the Alberta Major Projects portal, the proposed Pathways Phase 1 CCUS project carries a price tag of $16.5 billion. This raises an important question: how much greater value —in terms of emission reductions, economic growth, job creation, and technological leadership — could be created by deploying this capital into proven, scalable technologies such as NCG co-injection, solvent-assisted recovery, and other operational optimizations that are already delivering strong results today?
The world is changing. Our industry has an opportunity, and responsibility, to lead with a broader portfolio of solutions that combine operational excellence, technology innovation, and targeted infrastructure where it makes the most economic and environmental sense.
Practical, field-deployed advancements in SAGD optimization can and should play a much larger role in achieving our emission reduction goals.
Thank you for your leadership and consideration.
Sincerely,
Alex Filstein, P.Eng
Calgary
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