Brad Wall is former Premier of Saskatchewan
Prime Minister Mark Carney speaking to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 20. Screencapture from X livestream @MarkJCarney
The prime minister and other national leaders – for transparently political reasons – use talking points like – the era of rules based trade is over or our trade with the US will never be the same. While it might help bolster their political case built on strong anti-Trump sentiment – it is dangerous for the leader of our economy to write off the market that is 75% of our exports.
It is also not true.
Trump will be gone in 3 years. Let’s not lose sight of that. Let’s not let the allure of scoring temporal political points govern our approach to Canada-US trade – not at this pivotally important time.
Yes, let us diversity our export markets. We’ve been working on that in Saskatchewan for years and we are the second-least US dependent provincial economy in Canada. But we need leadership that understands that while the American market is currently our biggest challenge – it also remains our biggest opportunity. And it dwarfs all other bilateral and multi-lateral trade opportunities that exist.
During this time of volatility – and at times enmity – let us not take the bait. Let us play the long game remembering that a strong trade relationship with the US cannot be replaced by some European or Asian tariff arrangement. It just can’t.
Carney’s recent remarks at Davos have been heralded as great international speech craft. I disagree.
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It was a wonderfully written speech and it was well delivered but it failed to meet the most important test: Did it get us closer to or farther away from a ‘good’ trade deal when the review of CUSMA begins in 6 months?
There is a chance, of course, that CUSMA is not replaced by anything; the Wild West of trade, as it were. Or even that Mexico and the US sign a deal and leave Canada out entirely.
Everything Carney does in the months leading up to the CUSMA review this year must be tuned to ensure that this possibility does not become an inevitability. A vainglorious speech through which the PM wanted the approbation of other world leaders and support of voters at home – that actually reduces our chances for a good North American trade deal is not the leadership the Canadian economy needs right now.
The PM should be reaching out to Canadian business leaders to leverage the great many and abiding relationships that exist across the border, leveraging the support we have in the House, Senate and Administration who already understand the importance of Canada to the US economy. He should also be reaching out to premiers who have their own relationships at the sub-national level, like US governors, for leverage and support in the run up to the CUSMSA review. I expect that a lot of this is happening but more effort to find points of constructive leverage are needed, especially if the choice is between the hard work of diplomacy and networking or cool speeches at Davos.
And when it comes to the President’s rhetoric, answer it. Especially when it is objectively wrong. But there are ways to do that without making matter worse – without risking a trade deal with the number one economy in the world – that remains vital to our economic interests now and long after Trump is gone.
The speech at Davos did not do that.
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