Jim Warren is a recovering academic as retired adjunct professor and lecturer in environmental sociology at the University of Regina.
Prime Minister Mark Carney shakes hands with United States President Donald Trump at the start of a meeting in the Oval Office in the White House, in Washington, D.C. Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025 in Washington. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
There they were in the Oval Office, posing in front of a fireplace lavishly decorated in the styles of Liberace and Saddam Hussein. Donald Trump and Mark Carney were having a handshake for the cameras.
It was Tuesday, Oct. 7, and will be remembered as the day when Mark Carney tacitly admitted he was having serious difficulty getting a ‘made in Canada’ agreement for the construction of a new oil export pipeline to Canada’s West Coast.
Among the items discussed by the president and prime minister was their joint interest in reviving the Keystone XL pipeline project which had been cancelled by Joe Biden on his first day as president in 2021. The pipeline would have transported crude from Alberta’s oil sands all the way to the US Gulf Coast.
It’s no surprise Carney is looking for a “Plan B.”
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He can’t get a pipeline built to tidewater in Canada without alienating the government of British Columbia, anti-development Indigenous groups, the Bloc Quebecois, a sizable section of the Liberal caucus, and baby boomers from urban Ontario. It has to be embarrassing, having to look to Donald Trump to pull your chestnuts out of the fire. But hoping to get a Trump-backed pipeline built in the US may be Carney’s only hope to achieve anything in support of increasing Canada’s oil production and exports.
Carney has been under significant pressure from supporters of conventional energy and the Government of Alberta to get one or more new export pipelines built that can market oil to countries other than the US. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been demanding Carney clear the way for new pipelines to Canadian tidewater since he won the Liberal leadership and became prime minister. The pipeline demand was just one of nine energy-related policy recommendations Smith laid before the prime minister. Her wish list includes the repeal of the West Coast Tanker Moratorium Act (Bill 48) and the repeal of the Impact Assessment Act, formerly Bill C-69 (aka The No More Pipelines Bill).
Smith cautioned the prime minister that failing to address her province’s concerns would be tantamount to admitting Canada was no longer working for Albertans. Adding to the pressure, Smith announced in May that Alberta would allow a referendum during the coming year on whether the province should become an independent country.
Most pundits assume the separatists are unlikely to win a vote on independence. However, should Carney fail to back meaningful measures to increase the production and export of oil it would threaten to boost support for independence to an alarming level. This would be hugely embarrassing for a prime minister who has been promoting a unified Canadian response to the economic challenges facing the country (Trump’s tariff war in particular).
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Carney has supposedly responded to the demands of the conventional energy sector by quickly pushing the Building Canada Act (Bill-C5) through Parliament. The Bill was sold to Canadians as a way to fast-track official approval for economically significant nation-building projects, including pipelines. The government portrayed it as the fix needed to remove the regulatory barriers that contributed to the cancellation of the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines when Justin Trudeau was prime minister.
It turned out to be a lot of smoke and mirrors. Bill C-5 did not come close to providing the approval guarantees sought by oil and pipeline industry leaders or the Government of Alberta. The infamous Bills C-48 and C-69 would remain in effect. To rational observers it seemed obvious the goals of Bill C-5 were in conflict with the existing legislation. There are conditions which do not logically coincide.
Approximately 90 of Canada’s oil and pipeline industry CEOs sent a letter to Carney in response to the passage of Bill C-5, telling him it would remain impossible to construct a new oil pipeline to the West Coast without getting rid of Bills C-48 and C-69.
A new oil pipeline to Canada’s West Coast has become the only viable means to get more oil to new non-US buyers. The Atlantic coast is no longer an option. During the 2025 election campaign Mark Carney guaranteed the province of Quebec it would have the power to veto proposals for pipelines crossing its territory. Quebec’s provincial politicians and the Bloc Quebecois in Parliament have pledged to prevent construction of any oil pipeline running through Quebec and on to the Maritimes and the Atlantic coast.
Most Canadian oil industry analysts no longer view building a new pipeline to the US as a preferred option for increasing oil exports. At least not until after we have substantially increased
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exports to non-US customers. Prior to completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) in May of 2024 the US was Canada’s only international customer for the diluted bitumen (dilbit) produced in the Alberta oil sands. We did not have access to any other international market for the oil we produced but did not consume domestically. (The expanded Trans Mountain system can transport 890,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) when operating at full capacity)
Prior to completion of the TMX, US buyers took advantage of the fact they were our only foreign customers by applying unnecessarily steep discounts to Canadian dilbit (which, by the way, is marketed under the name Western Canadian Select (WCS)). Discounts for transportation costs and the extra costs incurred to refine dilbit do indeed warrant paying a price somewhat lower than what is being paid for lighter crude produced in the US. However, the discounts charged against WCS oil can fluctuate wildly and inexplicably. On some days the discount could run as high as 50 per cent, on other days to as low as 10 per cent below the price being paid for West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI), an international benchmark price.
When Canada’s only coastal export terminal, the TMX terminal, with the ability to ship to international customers besides the US went into expanded operation in 2024 it appears to have had a welcome effect on the discounts being charged against WCS in the US. The annualized discounts for WCS from 2005 to 2024 averaged 26.33 per cent less than the prices paid for regular WTI crude.
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The TMX began operating in May of 2024. Over the next seven months with the pipeline running at less than full capacity, the average discount charged against WCS sold into the US fell to just 19 per cent. This was the lowest the discount had been in percentage terms since 2011.
Fans of the federal government-owned Trans Mountain system maintain having new buyers, non-US buyers in particular, increased the number of prospective customers bidding for Canadian oil, while at the same time the supply available to the US market was modestly decreasing. They argue that regular customers in the US had to sweeten the prices they were prepared to pay for WCS. This was in part achieved by reducing the discount. As the data suggests, this may indeed be the case. But, correlation by itself does not allow us to infer causation.
Furthermore, there is a widely held assumption that WCS exported via the Pacific Ocean to new international customers will sell for a much lower and clearly justifiable discount. And that lower discount will be charged against global benchmark prices like the Brent and Abu Dhabi which are typically higher than the WTI benchmark.
My calculations indicate the average discount for the 10 months from January 10 to October 10, 2025 has held steady since 2024. On average, the price paid for WCS oil was 19.2% less than the average price paid for WTI crude. It is possible there might be alternative explanations available for the decrease in the discount since 2023. Yet, economic common sense dictates that with the TMX running at full capacity along with a new million bpd pipeline filling tankers at Prince Rupert, supplies available to the US would be significantly reduced forcing discounts down to a more reasonable and justifiable level.
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The benefits just described would clearly not be available should an increase in Canadian exports go to the US versus the Asia Pacific region.
Calgary Herald columnist Chris Varcoe jokingly referred to the KXL as a ‘zombie’ pipeline. It was first approved in 2008 by the Steven Harper and George W. Bush administrations. On the advice of the US State Department, and its boss, Hillary Clinton, the Obama administration killed the pipeline in November 2015. Trump brought the project back to life during his very first week as president in January 2017. Joe Biden re-cancelled the pipeline the same day he was sworn in as president in January 2021. Biden’s decision turned out to be the final nail in KXL’s coffin.
There was a good chance Donald Trump would tell Mark Carney what he wanted to hear regarding the pipeline at their Oval Office meeting. The president had himself signaled his interest in resuscitating the KXL or a reasonable facsimile thereof as recently as February of this year.
There is not much chance a revived KXL project will come together any time soon, if ever. Despite the preferences of the president and prime minister, major pipelines require capital investments and proponents who can reasonably anticipate profits. Trans Canada’s new pipeline spinoff, Bow Valley Pipelines, doesn’t appear interested in making another attempt. Who can blame them? Even in Donald Trump’s America things the president wants can be derailed by legal challenges.
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Not to mention, the president is in the habit of changing his mind. Another ham-handed, elbows up moment like Doug Ford’s World Series ad campaign, or a dumb remark by a federal cabinet minister might cause a big project like a KXL 2.0 to be hopelessly delayed or cancelled.
It is true that US oil production is expected to decline due to the depletion of shallow fracked wells over the coming decade. We assume that pipelines running from oil sands country in Alberta into the US Midwest offer the most long-term security of supply and cost effective option. But is that actually the case?
The US is already buying oil from Guiana’s new offshore fields. And what the heck are the Americans up to in Venezuela? They have now sent a carrier strike group into the neighbourhood and thousands of Marines are on standby.
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. It could be Trump and his Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, actually think the US can seize and exploit them. Of course if he was paying attention during George W. Bush’s adventure in Iraq, Trump might recall that regime change can be a lot harder than it looks. Whether he realizes it or not, facilitating a civil war in Venezuela in which democratic forces overthrow the Maduro regime will not be a short and a seamless exercise. But it may prove irresistible to an attention seeking wannabe autocrat. Whatever the outcome, we can probably assume that while Trump is focused on Venezuela and its oil he will be paying less attention to arguments on behalf of reviving the KXL.
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All things considered there is a good chance that, despite all the talk, the KXL will not magically come back to life this Halloween. French bureaucrats have an expression which aptly describes the situation: The corpse twitches, but it does not dance.
Premiers Danielle Smith and Scott Moe along with federal opposition leader Pierre Poilievre have all said they welcome the prospect of reviving the KXL. They have to say that. Given recent history, who could say no to more pipelines. But these people’s support is qualified. A new pipeline to the US cannot be viewed as a substitute for a new Canadian pipeline to tidewater on the West coast. A pipeline from Alberta to Prince Rupert, B.C. remains the top priority.
In other words a revived KXL should not be viewed as the consolation prize for not building an updated version of the Northern Gateway pipeline that was killed by Justin Trudeau in January 2016.
In a perfect world both projects could go forward.
For those looking for more information, I have attached an annex to this article which provides some background on the original Keystone and Keystone XL pipelines.
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The original KXL plan
Trans Canada pipelines would build, own, and operate the Keystone XL pipeline (KXL). The project would supplement the capacity of Trans Canada Pipeline’s already operating the Keystone pipeline. The original Keystone can transport 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) of diluted bitumen (dilbit) produced in the Canadian oil sands from Hardisty, Alberta to a pipeline hub at Steele City, Nebraska. From that hub the line runs to a distribution terminal in Patoka, Illinois which supplies several US Midwest refineries.
Source: Wikimedia Commons, authors: cmglee, meclee,Flappeth, Lokal_Profitletal. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en
The KXL was to be a multi-phase project. Phase I would involve the construction of a 36” diameter pipeline with capacity to transport 830,000 bpd of Alberta dilbit from Hardisty to the hub at Steele City by a shorter route than the one taken by the original Keystone line. Phase II would extend the XL line south from Steele City to Cushing, Oklahoma, an oil refining, marketing and pipeline hub. The third and final phase would extend the line from Cushing south to a hub servicing Texas Gulf Coast refineries. The US portion of phase I was never completed, but the Phase II and III sections from Steele City to the Gulf coast are currently in operation.
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