Kaase Gbakon is a Prince Albert-based economist with a PhD in petroleum economics, management and policy
Dr. Kaase Gbakon took his oath of Canadian citizenship in late January. His contributions to Pipeline Online are some of the deepest analysis this publication has been able to offer, and we would like to congratulate Dr. Gbakon on becoming a Canadian!
Hello and Welcome to another edition of the Energy Business Analytics Newsletter. In this edition we pull back the curtain on the strategies of sixteen international energy companies with a total revenue [2024] of $3.6 Trillion. We conduct a strategic theme clustering to reveal how each company positions itself along major energy transformation and profitability axes.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Five strategy archetypes define how major energy firms navigate transition and profitability – from “Balanced Transitioners” to “Traditional Nationalists.”
- Capital spending is the clearest signal of intent – many companies are quietly rebalancing toward core oil & gas assets.
- U.S. refiners are not phasing out – but doubling down, blending selective transition with traditional asset optimization.
- Geopolitical context shapes ambition – state-linked firms like Aramco and Petrobras are balancing profit, politics, and social license.
- Narrative is not Action – while transition narratives dominate public messaging, oil and chemicals still form the operational core for most.
WHY STRATEGY MATTERS MORE THAN EVER
The energy landscape is in an era of heightened climate pressure, volatile markets, and technological upheaval and ambiguity. The world’s biggest oil and gas companies—spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East—have declared ambitions to cut emissions, grow renewables, and future-proof their business models. Yet, what do their capital allocations, partnerships, divestments, and upstream manoeuvres actually tell us?
We conducted a strategic scan of 16 major global energy firms covering a mix of international oil companies (IOCs), national oil companies (NOCs), and integrated energy firms who made a combined revenue of $3.58 Trillion in 2024.
The list of companies analyzed is listed below:
- TotalEnergies
- BP
- Sinopec
- Saudi Aramco
- China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
- ExxonMobil
- Valero Energy
- Marathon Petroleum
- Equinor
- Petrobras
- Reliance Industries
- Phillips 66
- Rosneft Oil
- ENI
- Shell
- Chevron
The analysis here is based on the companies’ investor presentations, quarterly earnings calls with shareholders, company announcements, and other publicly available information. We take the companies’ stated strategies and crosswalk against real-world actions. Through cluster analysis, thematic mapping, and case studies, we uncover the forces shaping the future of energy. The result is a clear eyed view at players’ positions in the energy landscape.
Let’s dive in!
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MAPPING THE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES – A COMMON LANGUAGE EMERGES
Looking at the companies’ strategic objectives, we find that their objectives converge around two themes: Energy Transition and Traditional Energy Continuity. The strategic themes identified encompass a wide spectrum of activities, including transition strategies and oil/gas-focused initiatives. Despite geopolitical and regulatory divergence, a thematic convergence exists across companies. The dominant strategic motifs fall into two intertwined pillars:
Companies are increasingly defining success along these themes.
A. Energy Transition Themes
Under this theme, success is defined as:
- Achieve net-zero emissions by 2050: TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron, BP, Equinor, ExxonMobil are some of the companies with this objective. Every company has publicly stated emissions-reduction goals – ranging from ExxonMobil’s net-zero target for operated assets by 2050, to CNPC and Sinopec aligning with China’s 2060 neutrality goal, and Petrobras achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
- Reduce lifecycle carbon intensity of products: Shell, TotalEnergies, Petrobras are examples here. An example is the Shell strategy theme “More Value with Less Emissions” which conveys the company’s focus on targeting high-return, low-carbon-intensive plays.
- Investment in Carbon Capture, Hydrogen, and Biofuels: CCS hubs (ExxonMobil, Equinor), renewable diesel (Valero, Marathon), and blue/green hydrogen (BP, Aramco Equinor, ENI, Sinopec).
- Renewables and Electricity: Offshore wind (Equinor, BP), solar (Reliance, TotalEnergies), and power trading are increasingly in play.
- Circular Economy and Digitalization: Companies like Reliance and Sinopec are doubling down on digitized supply chains and plastic recycling innovations.
- B. Traditional Energy Continuity
- Deepwater and LNG Expansion: Sustain oil and gas profitability via deepwater, LNG, and low-cost barrels (ExxonMobil, Petrobras, Chevron, Rosneft). ExxonMobil and Shell’s Gulf of Mexico play, TotalEnergies’ Angolan and Suriname focus, and Aramco’s Jafurah gas field signal a continued commitment to deepwater and LNG as “transitional” hydrocarbons.
- Refining & Petrochemicals Upgrades: Rosneft, Eni, and CNPC are betting on downstream integration to protect margins.
- Portfolio Highgrading: Many firms are trimming legacy shallow-water or onshore assets to focus on high-IRR projects – especially in deepwater and frontier basins (Shell, ExxonMobil, BP).
Rosneft, Valero, Marathon, Phillips 66 focus on cost control, increasing refining utilization, and operational reliability with less emphasis on long-term energy transition.
Reliance Industries and Rosneft are, however, seen to be outliers here. Reliance Industries, structured as a conglomerate, blends telecom, e-commerce, and green energy in a diversified strategy unlike any other in the cohort. Rosneft is aggressively set to pursue a laser-focus on oil and gas upstream with less emphasis on net zero or renewable capacity.
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FIVE PATHS TO PROFIT AND TRANSITION
Once again, by grouping the different ways the companies have proposed to achieve their strategic objectives, we identify five broad approaches.
| Approach Theme | Companies | Notes |
| Integrated Value Chain | ExxonMobil, Chevron, Eni, Shell | Use upstream/downstream synergy to optimize costs and revenue. |
| Transition Tech Focus | Equinor, TotalEnergies, Aramco | Strong focus on CCS, hydrogen, biofuels, renewables. |
| Operational Discipline | Marathon, Valero, Phillips 66, CNPC | Tight control of margins, process optimization. |
| Innovation-Led Edge | Sinopec, Reliance, BP | Heavy R&D spend, digitalization, e-commerce, AI. |
| Sustainability Strategy | Petrobras, ENI, Aramco | Green ambitions strongly tied to government mandates or social license. |
Strategic Archetypes – Five Emerging Playbooks
We identify five “types” [also archetypes] of global energy companies from our scan. This is based on our assessment of their strategic objectives and how they plan to achieve those objectives.
The Table below describes these archetypes.
| Archetype | Description | Examples |
| Balanced Transitioners | Advance renewables while maintaining high-grade hydrocarbons | TotalEnergies, Equinor, ENI, Shell |
| Green Opportunists | Test transition tech while maintaining aggressive oil & gas growth/returns | BP, ExxonMobil, Aramco, Chevron |
| Efficiency Maximalists | Refocus on operational excellence, financial discipline, and low carbon fuels | Valero, Marathon, Phillips 66 |
| Emerging Market Hedgers | Straddle traditional and clean energy, weighted to resilience | CNPC, Sinopec, Reliance |
| Traditional Nationalists | Fossil fuel dominance, state-driven decarbonization | Petrobras, Rosneft |
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CAPEX VS. CLIMATE GOALS: THE REALITY GAP
According to @Oil and Gas Journal analysis of capital spending plans for 2025, oil giants are focused more on delivering operational efficiencies and investment returns rather than the pursuit of aggressive growth. With the 2025 combined capital expenditure of ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, Equinor, and TotalEnergies projected to range from $108 Billion to $112 Billion, these players have gradually recalibrated their approaches to capital investments in renewable and low-carbon businesses. They have dialed back on their ambitions on their renewable and low carbon targets.
For example, Shell in 2024, reduced its workforce in the low-carbon solutions sector by at least 15% and relaxed its 2030 carbon reduction target. Both, clear signals of a strategic pivot back to its core oil and gas operations to enhance profitability.
In its 2025 capital budget, BP revealed plans to boost its investment in oil and gas by about 20% to $10 billion, while scaling back funding for renewable energy projects. This change reflects a recalibration of BP’s strategy to balance traditional energy sources with renewable initiatives. In what the company described as a “Strategic Reset,” the CEO Murray Auchincloss said the company had “gone too far, too fast” calling its faith in green energy “misplaced.”
Meantime, in February 2025, the Norwegian major, Equinor announced plans to allocate $5 billion over the next 2 years, down from the previously planned $10 billion for renewable energy projects. The company will not be pursuing its initial plan to spend half of its fixed assets budget on renewables and low carbon products by 2030. Instead, Equinor will be increasing oil and gas production by 10% over the next two years.
Anders Opedal, chief executive of Equinor told the @BBC: “We are scaling down our investments in renewables and low carbon solutions because we don’t see the necessary profitability in the future…”
Figure 1: Distribution of Cash Spending by Oil and Gas Companies [Source: Visual Capitalist based on Data from IEA]
Assessing the cash distribution profile of the oil and gas companies, we see an increasing share doled out to shareholders at the expense of capital investment. In 2022, 39% of the cash distribution was handed over to shareholders up from 26% in 2021. This is remarkable when considered that industry made $4 Trillion in profits – double the profits recorded in 2021. Meanwhile, investments in renewables have been a thin slice [1%] of the cash distribution – despite strategy pitch decks which commit to renewable investment and net zero targets.
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The @IEA in its World Energy Investment 2025 report stated that:
“Oil and gas companies invested around $22 Billion in low emissions energy technologies in 2024, around 25% less than in 2023. Many of the companies that had previously led the push to diversify into new technology areas announced large downward revisions to their low emissions targets…”
The IEA doesn’t expect oil and gas companies’ low-emissions investment to recover in 2025 according to the report, the IEA “expect[s] oil and gas industry investment in low-emissions technologies to fall by a further 10% in 2025.”
Even as shareholders are receiving an increasing share of cash distribution, the share allocated to capital expenditure is declining and has been doing so steadily since its peak in 2016 at 93%. The IEA highlights that for the third year in a row, capital expenditure by the majors in 2024 comprised less than half of their cash distribution. However, the picture is more nuanced when a granular view is taken. Middle East and Asian NOC’s have been increasing upstream investment since 2020, while the majors’ investment looks set for a slight decline first time since 2021. The current levels are well below 2015, just as we saw in Figure 1.
Figure 2: Upstream Investment by Middle East/Asia NOC on the rise [Source: IEA]
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Focus on U. S. Refiners
Our cohort of 16 companies include three independent refiners who are largely US based – Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Phillips 66. While the other companies include refining assets in their portfolio, we focus on these exclusive refiners to gain insights into how core refinery businesses view their segment evolving.
| Strategic Cluster | Observed Themes |
| Efficiency & Resilience | High utilization (90%+), IRR discipline, cost control, advanced digital ops |
| Selective Transition | SAF (sustainable aviation fuel), renewable diesel via joint ventures (e.g. Diamond Green) |
| Financial Optimization | Stock buybacks, strong dividend focus, CapEx conservatism |
| Core Business Retention | Little divestment: refineries remain core |
These companies, which in 2024 recorded a combined revenue of $436 Billion, cluster their strategies around cost-effectiveness, margin-focused downstream leadership, and selectively incorporating transition investments in areas with similar risk/return profiles as traditional refining. Midstream/chemical operations are viewed increasingly as the jewel of the companies’ long-term portfolio.
They are also focused on keeping refining at the core of their business, by extending the economic life of traditional assets through selective green upgrades. There’s proof – Phillips 66, converted its existing Rodeo refinery in California to a 50 000 b/d biofuel facility for a princely $1.3 Billion. This is remarkable given the context of tightening refining margins and evolving market dynamics, such as tariffs on Canadian heavy crude imports and competition from new refineries abroad.
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- 0092 Turnbull projects big and small0092 Turnbull projects big and small
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- 0087 Lori Carr Coal Expansion0087 Lori Carr Coal Expansion
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FINAL THOUGHTS: FOLLOW THE MONEY, NOT THE MISSION STATEMENTS
If there’s a single takeaway from this comparative scan, it’s that strategy must be interpreted through behaviour, and not just words. When oil majors say they’re going green, follow the CapEx, not just the press releases. Real capital commitments, asset dispositions, and partnerships are the clearest signals of intent. For stakeholders in energy markets [regulators, investors, or governments], following those signals is key.
For governments and regulators in the complex markets where these players operate, striking the balance between energy security, investment attraction and climate policy is imperative. The companies playing in these jurisdictions are thinking long. The space is dynamic, and so must the strategy too – both from regulators and companies. Portfolio decisions taken one at a time, will lay the path towards success in the future energy landscape.
If nothing else, what this 16-company scan has unveiled is that while transition narratives dominate investor decks, operational reality remains deeply grounded in oil, gas, and chemicals – only now with capital discipline, cleaner margins, smarter carbon accounting, and innovation built in.
If you enjoyed this edition of the Energy Business Analytics newsletter, please subscribe for more content like this!
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