Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
These transmission lines near Brooks were not humming with wind-generated power the morning of April 24, 2025, when this photo was taken. Photo by Spencer Zinchuk
Just a few days before a federal election which has energy as a key issue, Alberta’s wind power generation fleet flatlined, yet again.
At 9:24 a.m. on Thursday, April 24, the province’s fleet of over 1700 wind turbines with a nameplate capacity totalling 5,688 megawatts was producing just three megawatts.
That’s one half of one tenth of one percent, or 0.05 per cent. Not five per cent, but move the decimal point to positions to the left.
That’s according to data from the Alberta Electric System Operator’s (AESO) website, which provides minute-by-minute updates of every major generating unit on the entire Alberta grid. You can follow it here.
And wind output remained around three to six megawatts for the better part of half an hour.
This was Alberta’s grid at 9:44 a.m. on Thursday, April 24. MC is Maximum Capacity, in megawatts. TNG is Total Net to Grid, and DCR is Dispatched (and accepted) Contingency Reserve. Alberta Electric System Operator
X account @ReliableAB provides logs every two hours of the AESO data. That log shows that from 10:59 a.m. on Wednesday, April 23 until 4:59 p.m. on Thursday, April 24, wind capacity remained below six per cent output, and many hours of it under three per cent.
At that first point, it was 3.4 per cent, or 195 megawatts. It rose to 5.8 per cent capacity, or 329 megawatts, at 2:59 p.m. on April 29, before dropping again. By 6:59 p.m. wind was 2.0 per cent capacity, or 111 megawatts. It climbed again to 5.9 per cent, or 335 megawatts, at 8:59 p.m. It stayed just under five per cent into the night before hitting 1.7 per cent capacity, or 99 megawatts.
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That data point, 4:59 a.m. on April 24, is critical when it comes to federal energy policy and the federal election. At that point, Alberta was getting 94.2 per cent of its power generation from natural gas, a fossil fuel. As it was still nighttime, solar output was zero.
That’s because, according to federal law brought into final form on the last day Parliament sat, Alberta (and Saskatchewan and all other provinces for that matter) will need to either install carbon capture facilities with impossibly high standards on that natural gas fleet or shut it down within nine years, seven months and five days from today.
The federal Liberal government’s Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) are a key policy point for the Federal liberals. This is what Pipeline Online reported on Dec. 19, 2024, about the updated CER:
The newly updated federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) shift the deadline for reaching a “net zero” electrical grid from 2035 to 2050. At least that’s what the headlines all say. But digging into the regulations, it’s more of a bait and switch.
Pipeline Online dug through the finalized version of the regulations, posted here, and available here in PDF form: 2024 12 17 Clean Electricity Regulations CER_UnofficialVersionNonOfficielle
And the revisions might seem looser at first, until you realize there’s a poison pill right in the middle of them. They still include an emissions goal for 2035 that is, for all intents and purposes, unobtainable for any jurisdiction that relies on fossil fuels to generate power. And in Saskatchewan, on any given day up to 88 per cent of our power comes from fossil fuels, and in Alberta it’s as high as 93 per cent.
That target is 65 tonnes of CO2 per gigawatt-hour (GWh), dramatically lower than what is currently being achieved by the implementation of the one grid-scale carbon capture plant on a power station in Canada – SaskPower’s Boundary Dam 3. Without carbon capture dramatically more capable than the one installed on BD3, fossil fuel-fired power generation is certain to be offside the new 2035 emissions targets.
The announcement came on the last day of the fall parliamentary session, meaning there would be no opportunity to spend days in Question Period, picking apart the new regulations. And if implemented, these regulations will be some of the most impactful in recent Canadian history, utterly transforming our society and how it is powered.
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What’s new, what changed
The previous draft version of the CER said that all grid-scale fossil fueled power generation in Canada, including coal, natural gas, pet coke, etc., must shut down by 2035 unless equipped with very expensive carbon capture technology which would also use around over a quarter of the generator’s power just to operate (something called parasitic load). That’s in 10 years and 12 days from now.
The new version doesn’t expressly say that. Instead, it puts in place 2035 emissions standards that will be all but impossible to achieve.
The CER Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement states:
The Regulations will achieve emissions reductions by prohibiting emissions above an annual emissions limit (AEL) for electricity generating units, based on each unit’s electricity generation capacity (capacity). The Regulations include compliance flexibility mechanisms that adjust the scope of the prohibition to limit negative impacts on grid stability or disproportionately increasing compliance costs and therefore electricity prices.
The Regulations apply to electricity generating units that meet the applicability criteria. A unit means an assembly of equipment that is physically connected and operates together to generate electricity and must include at least a boiler or combustion engine and may include CCS systems.
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Liberal Platform
So what does the current federal Liberal election platform state? It says nothing expressly about the Clean Electricity Regulations, implying they would stand, as gazetted in December. This is what the Liberal platform does say about energy, verbatim:
Building a Clean Economy and Tackling Climate Change
Canada needs a climate policy that moves past division and focuses on the future we want. We need a climate policy that is unifying, credible, and predictable; that reduces emissions, drives investment, and builds the economy of the future. Investments made today can drive emissions down, drive new economic growth across Canada, and open new export markets with like-minded countries.
Action now will be far less costly than the impacts we will face in the years to come, making these investments prudent and necessary for Canada’s long-term sustainability. It’s time for generational investment from both government and the private sector.
The sustainable transition in Canada must be based on strong partnerships with Indigenous Peoples and ensure they share in the benefits.
From the mining of minerals and metals, to harnessing clean energy, fueling oil and gas production, harvesting forests sustainably, and advancing aquaculture, the workers and businesses in these sectors are the backbone of our economy. They power industries, create high-quality jobs, and drive innovation in construction, manufacturing, and clean technology. By responsibly developing our natural wealth, these sectors ensure prosperity today and build a resilient, sustainable future for generations to come.
As we build the strongest economy in the G7, we cannot lose sight of the impact our choices will have on our children and grandchildren; we must always be mindful of long-term sustainability and the kind of economy and environment we want for them.
Energy Superpower, Energy Security
It’s time to build Canada into an energy superpower that combines our conventional energy resources with our unlimited potential when it comes to clean, affordable energy. It is what will power the economy of the future — it will be the backbone of the economy we build together. We have major untapped hydro resources. We have the critical minerals needed for batteries and new technologies and the resources needed to produce more biofuel. We already rank at the top for global investment in battery and storage technologies. And we have barely begun to scratch the surface of our potential to build out more renewable power, such as wind and solar power. Around the world, investment is driving towards clean growth, and, with the uncertainty of America’s trade war, Canada’s stability makes it more attractive than ever.
Let’s truly establish Canada as an energy superpower. Let’s use this moment to marshal public and private sector capital and seize Canada’s potential to lead, to create new jobs and new prosperity for Canada – prosperity that will last for generations.
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A Mark Carney-led government will:
- Kickstart the clean energy supply chain by investing in critical minerals, attracting investment in critical minerals to get them from “rock to road” faster, supporting early-stage mining companies, and supporting thousands of jobs across the supply chain. To get the vital components needed to build Canada strong, we will:
- Connect critical mineral projects to supply chains through a new First and Last Mile Fund (FLMF). This will make more projects viable and create a more integrated and accessible Canadian economy.
- Directly support clean energy and critical mineral projects through the FLMF, reducing our reliance on other countries and protecting Canadian jobs. This will include supporting on-site development, processing, and refining capacity.
- Accelerate exploration and extraction, including investing in prospecting activities and recovering valuable minerals from end-of-life products like mining waste and batteries, contributing to a circular economy.
- Attract, expand, and derisk investments in critical minerals exploration and extraction through the expansion of existing tax credits. We will do this by:
- Broadening the Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit by expanding qualifying minerals to include critical minerals necessary for defence, semiconductors, energy, and other clean technologies.
- Expanding eligible activities under Canadian exploration expenses to include the costs of technical studies, such as engineering, economic and feasibility studies for critical minerals projects.
- Modifying the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit to include critical mineral mine development expenses for brownfield sites while expanding the list of priority critical minerals. This will accelerate how we get critical minerals from “rock to road” and will create good jobs.
- Invest in ourselves by providing funding for projects of national and economic significance and leveraging the Canada Growth Fund to accelerate private investment in Canadian critical minerals projects. This will deliver strong value for taxpayers and make Canada an even more attractive market for investments.
- Expand Canada’s electric vehicle (EV) charging network by supporting the building of thousands of new stations by 2027. We will also look at ways to reintroduce a purchase incentive worth up to $5,000 that supports Canadian workers and strengthens our domestic supply chains.
- Examine measures to reduce Canada’s reliance on imported clean fuels as part of our plan to support Canadian farmers and businesses.
- Secure Canada’s energy and electricity sovereignty.
- Move forward on Canada’s six major investment tax credits (ITCs) that support clean energy and technology — the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage ITC, Clean Technology ITC, Clean Electricity ITC, Clean Hydrogen ITC, Clean Technology Manufacturing ITC, and Electric Vehicle Supply Chain ITC.
- Continue to be a world leader in Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage technology so that Canada is a world leader in responsible energy production.
- Expedite project reviews, including for major energy infrastructure [more].
- Bring our energy potential to the world [more].
- Safeguard our resources from predatory investors [more].
Catalyzing Private Investment in the Clean Economy
Our plan for Canada’s clean economy investment tax credits (ITCs) is expected to support $200 billion of private capital investment in Canada over five years.
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Clean Investment, Growth, and Good Jobs
We need to unleash clean capital and forge a new era of economic prosperity. To do that, we need to stop dragging our heels and give the market the certainty and clarity it relies on. Doing so will unlock new growth that creates jobs and builds a clean economy that no one can ever take away.
A Mark Carney-led government will:
- Finalize and implement the voluntary made-in-Canada sustainable investment guidelines for every priority sector by fall 2026.
- Issue Canada’s first-ever transition bonds by 2027, to finance projects that help industrial and agricultural sectors get cleaner and more competitive. The federal government will issue at least $10 billion per year through new bonds.
- Lead by example, and reduce energy bills, in government-owned buildings by phasing out fossil fuel use by 2030.
- Ensure new federal buildings will be top performers in energy efficiency by adopting the top tiers for energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reductions. This will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, lower long-term energy costs, and stimulate demand for clean energy technologies and green construction jobs.
- Invest in the prefabricated and modular housing industry to reduce home construction emissions by up to 22% compared to traditional construction methods. [more]
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A Made-in-Canada Industrial Competitiveness Strategy
Canadian industry has an obligation to decrease their emissions as rapidly and efficiently as possible. Amidst the current trade crisis, industry needs a strategy that fosters a clean comparative advantage.
A Mark Carney-led government will:
- Make sure big emitters pay while protecting the competitiveness of Canadian industry. We will improve the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) for large industrial emitters and actively work with provincial and territorial governments to ensure carbon markets continue to function well, reduce barriers to harmonizing and linking these markets across the country, and ensure they establish a long-term signal to lock in investments. This will make sure that, as Canadian industry reduces emissions, we are still competitive, make sure companies are able to withstand America’s trade war, and that Canada is positioned to take advantage of new opportunities in the global marketplace.
- Enable opportunities for big polluters to support consumers in lowering their carbon footprint. We will work with provinces and territories to seek ways for large emitters to support consumer adoption of green technologies and retrofits, such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, which also help lower household energy bills.
- Promote fair competition with our trading partners by developing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Companies that take their climate responsibilities seriously should be treated fairly. So we will work with reliable partners to ensure fairness for Canadian industries and better economically integrate Canada with allies in the fight against climate change. This approach would focus on ensuring the competitiveness of Canada’s most energy-intensive, trade-exposed sectors, and protect Canadians who work in industries such as steel and aluminum.
- Support carbon contracts for difference to derisk investments in the clean economy and further foster Canada’s clean industrial competitive advantage. We will also work with industry to make sure that emissions decline to achieve our climate goals, including through enhanced final oil and gas methane regulations that support innovation in Canadian technology.
- Become a world leader in carbon removal and sequestration by establishing Canada as a world leading hub for carbon removal and sequestration technology. We will ensure that the full value of the Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Investment Tax Credit (CCUS ITC) is extended to 2035, support a broad range of technologies and innovation in carbon removal, accelerate offset protocol development across a range of carbon removal technologies, and establish a separate carbon removal target for Canada for 2035 and 2040.
- Establish broad coverage of climate risk disclosure for companies across Canada. We will prioritize working with provincial, territorial, and international partners to enhance transparency for investors, better assess climate risks and opportunities, enable the development of transition plans, and help align capital towards a sustainable economy.
- Speed up the approval of clean energy projects while upholding environmental rigour and Indigenous rights [more].
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