
Kaase Gbakon is a Prince Albert-based economist with a PhD in petroleum economics, management and policy

Dr. Kaase Gbakon took his oath of Canadian citizenship in late January. His contributions to Pipeline Online are some of the deepest analysis this publication has been able to offer, and we would like to congratulate Dr. Gbakon on becoming a Canadian!
In this edition, Dr. Kaase Gbakon will assess the enormous energy trade between Canada and the US and explore the question of tariff impacts on both sides of the border.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- US Tariffs on Canadian Energy: A 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports could generate $12 billion for the US, with oil being the most affected sector, accounting for 84% of Canada’s energy export value.
- Impact on Consumers: Tariffs on Canadian oil could lead to a 2-3% increase in retail gasoline prices in the Midwest and Rockies where Canadian oil is a critical feedstock for refineries, while retaliatory Canadian tariffs could hike fuel prices even more in Quebec and Ontario.
- Canada’s Vulnerability: 20% of Canada’s refining capacity relies on US oil imports, with provinces like New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario being the most exposed to potential retaliatory tariffs.
- Energy Interdependence: The US and Canada are deeply intertwined in energy trade, with Canada supplying 60% of US crude oil imports and accounting for 14% of total US energy consumption, while the US is a key supplier of refined products and natural gas to Canada.
- Long-Term Implications: The tariff spat could force Canada to rethink its energy security strategy, potentially leading to greater diversification of energy markets and reduced reliance on the US.
Note: All currencies in this article are in US$
INTRODUCTION
It is not the first time the US has imposed tariffs on its neighbour – Canada. Donald Trump specifically in his first tenure as President of the United States, imposed a 25% tariff on Steel and 10% tariff on Aluminum from Canada which was lifted in 2019. There has also been the long running US-Softwood Lumber disagreement which has seen US$9 billion in tariffs leveled and collected by the US on Softwood lumber imports from Canada between 2017 and 2024. In 1982, the US argued that Canada was unfairly subsidising its softwood lumber, which led to several rounds of conflict, tariffs and retaliatory tariffs. Today, Canadian lumber into the US faces an existing 14% tariff, even before Trump’s threat to add 25% more.
Energy imports from Canada have largely been off-limits from US tariffs – until now. There wasn’t any reason to expect tariffs would be levied on Canadian energy imports into the US as there is a deeply integrated energy market between the two countries underpinned by long standing agreements. Consider the 1977 Transit Pipelines treaty between the governments of Canada and the United States of America. Article 3 of the agreement provides that neither party shall charge a transit fee for use of the pipelines linking both countries and neither shall the hydrocarbons in transit be charged.
Paragraph 1 of Article 3:
“No public authority in the territory of either Party shall impose any fee, duty, tax or other monetary charge, either directly or indirectly, on or for the use of any Transit Pipeline unless such fee, duty, tax or other monetary charge would also be applicable to or for the use of similar pipelines located within the jurisdiction of that public authority.”
Paragraph 2 of the Article continues:
“No public authority in the territory of either Party shall impose upon hydrocarbons in transit any import, export or transit fee, duty, tax or other monetary charge. This paragraph shall not preclude the inclusion of hydrocarbon throughput as a factor in the calculation of taxes referred to in paragraph 1.”
This treaty has been instrumental to US domestic refining. 60% of US crude oil imports is met by Canadian oil, which is of a quality required by specific US refineries which have been configured to refine it.
Then there was the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, the United States of America, and Mexico (1994), which was replaced by the Canada – US – Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in November 2018. The continental free trade agreements have aimed to ensure unfettered trade within the North American region and strengthen economic cooperation within the region. Consistent with this intent for unfettered trade, Sec. 604 of NAFTA specifies that members wouldn’t impose taxes on energy and petrochemicals exports. See quote:
“No Party may adopt or maintain any duty, tax or other charge on the export of any energy or basic petrochemical good to the territory of another Party, unless such duty, tax or charge is adopted or maintained on:
- exports of any such good to the territory of all other Parties; and
- any such good when destined for domestic consumption.”
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CUSMA which was negotiated by the current President in 2018 also inherited the free-market access assured by NAFTA. There are provisions in CUSMA aimed at facilitating trade in energy goods.
Now all that certainty which hitherto was taken for granted is now blown away like gathered dust from an old bookshelf. With a stroke of the pen, the recently sworn in president of the United States signed an executive order imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico which included the following words:
“Until the crisis [that of illegal aliens and drugs] is alleviated, President Donald J. Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff.”
With that, energy imports into the US from friendly Canada and Mexico are now roped into a complex web of trade tariffs, the full effects of which are still been weighed.
In this article, we will examine the interconnectedness of the US-Canada energy system and using our data-driven approach, ascertain the impact of tariffs on oil imports on both sides of the border.
Let’s dive in!
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CURRENT STATE OF CANADA-US ENERGY TRADE
In 2023, the US imported energy valued at US$153 billion from Canada according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This comprised oil, refined product, gas, and electricity. Meanwhile, the US exported US$30 billion worth of energy to Canada, thus making the US the largest source of energy imports into Canada. This trade is enabled by a network of transborder infrastructure, and the treaties highlighted in the introduction.
Here we examine the bilateral trade in oil, refined products, gas and electricity between the two countries. There’s going to be quite a few charts to make the point, so buckle up!
OIL TRADE FLOWS
Since 1995, Canada has been an increasingly important source of crude oil to the United States even as the US has also increasingly sent more crude oil to Canadian refineries. Figure 1 is from Rory Johnston of Commodity Context from which we can tell that in 2005 when oil imports into the US peaked at 10.12 MMbpd, about 16% of that import was from Canada. However, as imports declined on the back of increasing US domestic production, the contribution of Canadian oil to the US oil imports increased.
In 2015, when the US imported 7.36 MMbpd, Canadian oil made up 43%; a decade later in 2024, US imports declined to 6.50 MMbpd, 60% of which was Canadian oil.

Figure 1: Comparison of US and Canada Oil Imports showing the inter-dependency between the two countries [source: Commodity Context]
While Canada has sent oil to the US, the US has also been a source of crude feedstock to Canadian refineries. Supply from US to Canada increased ~ 10-times between 2010 and 2015 and peaked at 0.48 MMbpd in 2019.
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Canada’s Oil Exports to the US
Where Does Canadian Oil to the US Come From?
Figure 2 shows a snapshot of the sources of US oil import from Canada in 2024. Of the 4.1 MMbpd imported into the US from Canada, 87% was from Alberta, 8.7% from Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador accounted for 4.4%.

Figure 2: Alberta is the Leading Source of Canadian Oil Export to US [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
Alberta steals the spotlight for supplying the US with crude oil. The total oil supply from Canada to the US of 4.01 MMbpd in 2024 was valued at US$103 billion.
Figure 2 also makes it obvious that Alberta will be the most directly impacted by any tariffs imposed on Canadian oil exports to the US.
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The US Refining Complex
So, we now know that Alberta supplies the bulk of the Canadian crude oil that the US imports. To understand where that oil goes, it is helpful to take a high-level view of the US refining system.
The map shown in Fig 3 illustrates the geographical distribution, number, and capacity of refining assets by the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) in the US.
The bubble chart to the left of the map represents the total operating refinery capacity of 18.4 MMbpd, by PADD. The size of the circles is proportional to the operating refinery capacity.

Figure 3: Size, Number and Location of US Refineries: PADD 3 Leads the way in Capacity [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
PADD 1 (U.S. East Coast) includes 15 eastern states along the Atlantic and 7 refineries with a total operating capacity of 0.88 MMb/d. While PADD 2 (U.S. Midwest) includes 15 central U.S. states and 22 refineries with a total operating capacity of 3.95 MMb/d.
PADD 3 (U.S. Gulf Coast) includes 5 Gulf Coast states and 53 refineries with a total operating capacity of 9.68 MMb/d.
PADD 4 (U.S. Rockies) includes 10 Rocky Mountain states and 13 refineries with a total operating capacity of 0.54 MMb/d. PADD 5 (U.S. West Coast) includes 5 Pacific states and 26 refineries with a total operating capacity of 2.64 MMb/d.
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Where in the US does Canadian Oil Go to?
As you would have seen from the map in Figure 3, the US regions with leading refining capacity are PADD 3 (US Gulf Coast), followed by PADD 2 (Midwest) and then PADD 5 (West Coast). However, as of 2023, Canadian oil flowed mostly to PADD 2 (63%), PADD 3 (USGC at 19 %) and PADD 4 (Rockies at 7%) as captured in Figure 4.

Figure 4: PADD 2 is the leading US destination for Canadian Crude [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
We can also glean from Figure 4 that PADDs 2 and 3 in the US would be most directly impacted by tariffs on Canadian oil. Note that PADDs 2 and 4 which together receive 70% of Canadian oil exports are landlocked thus constraining their ability to access alternative feedstock.
Canadian supply to PADD 2 and 4 make up 60% of these regions’ total refining capacity (4.5 MMbpd). This highlights the importance of Canadian feedstock supply to these landlocked regions.
PADD 3 however is not as highly exposed to Canadian exports, with 19% of Canadian crude destined for this region. This is 8% of the 9.68 MMbpd capacity of the region. Additionally, PADD 3 refineries have access to tide water thus providing the USGC refineries with alternative crude oil sources.
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Canada’s Oil Imports from the US
As of 2023, the US supplied 0.35 MMbpd to Canada’s refineries, making up 19% of the feedstock used in Canadian refineries. And where did this imported crude oil go to? Figure 5 provides an answer.

Figure 5: Where US oil imports to Canada were destined
While the US was the source of 72.4% of the crude oil imported into Canada, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia provided the bulk of the balance at 12.9% and 10.7% respectively. Top destinations of US crude were refineries in New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario with Alberta receiving the least volume of crude imported from the US. Supplies from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia ended up in New Brunswick.
Matching the US supply to the refining capacity of the Canadian destinations, Table 1 below shows the percentage of Canadian refining capacity that is supported by US oil.
Province | Refining Capacity (Mbpd) | Oil Import from US (Mbpd) – 2023 | % of Oil Imported from the US |
A | B | C = B/A | |
New Brunswick | 320 | 130 | 41% |
Quebec | 402 | 122 | 30% |
Ontario | 409 | 78 | 19% |
Alberta | 560 | 24 | 4% |
Saskatchewan | 152 | 1 | 1% |
British Columbia | 67 | 0 | 0% |
Totals | 1,910 | 355 | 19% |
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Data source: Canada Energy Regulator |
Table 1: How Much US oil Imports is Refined in Canadian Refineries
Based on 2023 data, oil imports by New Brunswick, Quebec and Ontario were the highest percentage of their refining capacities. On an aggregate basis, 19% of the Canadian oil refining capacity of 1.91 MMbpd was imported from the US.
Of all the oil imported from the US to Canada in 2023, 93% flowed to the three provinces of New Brunswick, Quebec and Ontario.
A combined reading of Figures 1 to 4 explicitly shows the co-dependence between the US and Canada in oil trade.
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REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCT (RPP) TRADE FLOW
Canada’s Refined Products Exports to the US
In 2023, Canada’s refineries operated at an average capacity utilization of 89% producing 1.6 MMbpd of refined petroleum product. Of this quantity of RPP, 325 Mbpd of product was exported to the US, valued at US$13 billion. Since 2019, Canada has exported an average of 347 Mbpd to the US.
Table 2 shows the historical export to the US and corresponding value (in USD)
RPP Export (MMbpd) | RPP Value (US$ bn) | |
2019 | 0.403 | 11 |
2020 | 0.337 | 6 |
2021 | 0.345 | 9 |
2022 | 0.324 | 15 |
2023 | 0.325 | 13 |
2024 | 0.349 | 13 |
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Table 2: Historical Exports of RPP from Canada to the US [Based on Statscan Trade Data]
Canada’s Refined Products Imports from the US
Canada consumed 1.64 MMbpd of refined petroleum product in 2023, of which 429 Mbpd (26%) was imported. Of the 429 Mbpd imported worth US$16 billion, 78% was from the US. The leading destinations for refined product import were Alberta, Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia, and Newfoundland and Labrador which accounted for 90% of the import.
Alberta primarily imports condensate for blending with bitumen. While its imports have been in decline from their 2022 level of 234 Mbpd, the province has historically imported the most of all the provinces. In 2023, as seen in Figure 6, the “Wild Rose” country accounted for 46% of all refined petroleum products imports into Canada from the US.

Figure 6: Major Importers of RPP from the US [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
You’ll notice that Quebec is the province with the most diverse source of refined product import – with Netherlands, the UK and Belgium making up 35% of the 98 Mbpd refined product imported into Quebec in 2023.
Ontario imported 33 Mb/d or 8% of Canada’s total in 2023. British Columbia imports totaled 37 Mbpd in 2023 and accounted for 9% of Canada’s total.
While Canada’s refineries produce more products than the domestic consumption, refined products are still imported because parts of Canada do not produce enough products to supply local needs. These areas are often not well-connected by transportation infrastructure to parts of Canada that have excess RPPs.
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GAS TRADE FLOWS
Pipeline gas trade with the United States increased from 7.2 Bcfd in 2019 to 7.8 Bcfd in 2023. In that same period, gas imports from the United States declined from 2.16 Bcfd to 2 Bcfd. In 2023, natural gas export to the U.S. was valued at US$9.75 billion, while imports from the U.S. were valued at nearly US$2.35 billion.

Figure 7: Annual Trade Quantity of Gas between Canada and US [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
In 2024, Canada’s gas exports, all of which went to the US increased to 8.5 Bcfd, while the value had declined to US$6.49 billion.
However, in 2023 Canada imported 2.0 Bcf/d of natural gas—nearly 100% from the U.S. valued at nearly US$2.35 billion. In 2024 however, these imports had declined to 1.22 Bcfd valued at US$1 billion.

Figure 8: Annual Trade Value of Gas between Canada and US [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
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To get a sense of the States in the US importing natural gas from Canada, I offer the Table 3 below. It is a snippet of the December 2024 natural gas supply from different Canadian provinces to states in the US.

Table 3: Domestic Exports of Gas to US Dec 2024 [Source: Statscan Trade Data]
Conversely, Canada imports pipeline gas from the US as well. In Dec 2024 alone, Canada imported 1.29 Bcm (0.12 Bcfd) of gas valued at US$98 million. Table 4 shows where those imports were headed within Canada.

Table 4: Import of Gas from US Dec 2024 [Source: Statscan Trade Data]
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ELECTRICITY TRADE FLOWS
The map below shows the high voltage transmission power lines in Canada that are over 100 kilovolts (kV) and high voltage transmission lines in the U.S. that are over 200 kV. The following Canadian provinces are linked via transmission lines to international markets:
- British Columbia to the U.S. Pacific Northwest grid.
- Manitoba to the U.S. midcontinent grid.
- Ontario to the U.S. midcontinent and U.S. eastern grids.
- Quebec to the U.S. eastern grid.
- New Brunswick to the U.S. New England grid.

Figure 9: International Power Lines and the Canada-U.S. Grid [source: Canada Energy Regulator]
Canada is also a major exporter of electricity to the US – exporting 35.6 TWh of energy in 2024 valued at US$2.3 billion. All of Canada’s electricity trade is with the U.S. However, electricity exports have been in decline from 2022 when 65.5 TWh of electricity was exported as captured in Figure 10.
Between 2019 and 2024, Canada exported 338.5 TWh of electricity, while it imported 94.2 TWh of electricity. On net, Canada has exported 244.3 TWh of electricity to the US since 2019. Canada was the source of 85% of the electrical energy imported by the U.S. in 2023.

Figure 10: Annual Quantity of Electricity Traded between Canada and US [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
Notice that while Canada’s electricity exports to the US have declined since 2022, imports from the US have increased from 14 TWh (2022) to 23.2 TWh (2024).

Figure 11: Annual Value of Electricity Traded between Canada and US [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
In 2023 Canada imported 23.2 TWh of electricity, valued at US$1.27 billion (see Figure 11).
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Where did Canada’s Electricity Exports Go?
As illustrated in Figure 12 (based on 2024 supply), the destinations of Canadian electricity exports are to:
- ISO Northeast.
- New York ISO.
- Pennsylvania – New Jersey – Maryland (PJM).
The Midwest Independent System Operator (ISO) imported a total of 9.4 TWh of electricity from Ontario (4.1 TWh) and Manitoba (5.3 TWh).
NYISO imported a total of 7.2 TWh from Ontario (5.3 TWh), Quebec (1.3 TWh) and Newfoundland & Labrador (0.6 TWh).

Figure 12: Ontario is the Leading Exporter of Electricity to the US [Source: Canada Energy Regulator]
Where did Canada’s Electricity Exports Come From?
The leading electricity exporting provinces are Ontario (11 TWh), British Columbia (6 TWh), Manitoba (5.7 TWh), and Quebec (5.3 TWh). Other supplies come from New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.
Ontario and Quebec together produce over half of Canada’s electricity and are responsible for over half the electricity exports to the U.S.
Figure 12 doesn’t show small trade flows of electricity exported in 2024 from Alberta (0.37 TWh), Saskatchewan (0.19 TWh), and Nova Scotia (0 TWh).
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A SIGNIFICANT CANADA – US ENERGY TRADE
By this point, it should be obvious that Canada is a significant source of energy to the US. This is just as the US is also important to meeting Canada’s energy requirements in places where Canada’s infrastructural deficits make domestic supply difficult.
Table 5 neatly summarizes the energy trade situation between the US and Canada across oil, refined product, natural gas and electricity as of 2024.
Canada Exports to US (2024) | Canada Imports from US (2024) | |||||
Qty (PJ) | Value
(US$ bn) |
Unit Energy Export Value (US$/GJ) | Qty (PJ) | Value
(US$ bn) |
Unit Energy Import Value (US$/GJ) | |
Oil | 9,960.43 | 102.8 | 10.32 | 793.40 | 10.1 | 12.74 |
RPP | 763.18 | 12.9 | 16.92 | 822.22 | 12.4 | 15.02 |
Gas | 3,278.19 | 4.5 | 1.37 | 470.52 | 0.8 | 1.63 |
Electricity | 128.16 | 1.8 | 13.76 | 83.52 | 0.8 | 9.01 |
Totals | 14,130 | 121.9 | 8.63 | 2,169.66 | 24.0 | 11.05 |
RPP: Refined Petroleum Products
Source: Canada Energy Regulator www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon |
Table 5: Oil leads Canada-US Energy Trade: Summary Energy Trade between Canada and the US
Canada exported a total equivalent of 14,130 PJ of energy in the form of oil, refined products, gas and electricity to the US valued at US$122 billion.
To put this supply in context, it represents 14% of the total energy consumed across the US economy in 2024 estimated to be 99,251 PJ.
Conversely, the US supplied 2,170 PJ of energy in the form of oil, refined product, gas and electricity to Canada valued at US$24 billion in 2024. This represents 18% of the 11,925.81 PJ of energy consumed across the Canadian economy in 2024.
Interestingly, on aggregate, Canada received US$8.63 for every GJ of energy export to the US, while it paid ~ US$11 for every GJ of energy import from the US. In energy terms, 73% of Canada’s exports were embedded in oil and gas while 74% of Canada’s imports from the US were embedded in oil and refined products.
So, what will impact of tariffs on Canadian energy supplies look like?
Let’s find out in the next section.
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POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TARIFFS
Customs tariffs are a duty applied to goods at the time of importation. The rate of duty is typically expressed as a percentage of the value of the good and depends on the imported good’s customs classification, value, and country of origin.
Who Pays the Tariff?
The legal liability for payment of duties for imported goods into the US, typically, falls to the importer who pays the tariffs at the border to US Customs and Border Protection (USCBP). For goods coming into Canada, the importer typically pays the duty to Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA).
Thus, referring to Table 5, and assuming US tariffs on Canadian energy exclude electricity, a 10% tariff will raise US$12 billion to US coffers based on the value of 2024 energy imports. Electricity is excluded in this assessment as it is not explicitly mentioned in the reference to the related Executive Order by the President on January 20th, 2025.
Impact of Tariff on Canadian Oil Export
For this article, we will focus our impact on the oil trade since it accounts for 84% of the value of Canadian energy exports and 42% of the value of Canadian energy imports.
We showed earlier that the bulk of Canadian oil exports to the US flow to PADD 2, 3, and 4. However, refineries in the PADD 2 (Midwest) and PADD 4 (Rockies) are landlocked and lack alternate sources of heavy crude, consequently constraining these refineries to Canadian supply.
Under a 10% tariff scenario on Canadian oil, I expect that Canadian crude would continue largely being consumed in the US midcontinent. Consequently, I assume that these refineries will pay 10% more in their feedstock which will be passed on to the consumer at the pump. To assess the corresponding change in retail pump price arising from the price change in the feedstock, a scatterplot of the change in the price of Western Canadian Select (WCS) – the Canadian oil benchmark – versus change in retail price in PADD 2 and 4.
Figure 13 focuses attention on retail gasoline price in PADD 2.

Figure 13: Change of Retail Gasoline Price in PADD 2 with Change in WCS
The analysis here suggests that 10% change in WCS prices will translate to a 3% change in retail gasoline prices in PADD 2 (Midwest). Given the average gasoline price for February US$3/gallon, a 10% tariff will imply ~10cent/gallon increase in retail gasoline price within the Midwest.
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Table 6 details the expected increases in gasoline and diesel prices in PADD 2 and 4 arising from 10% tariff on Canadian oil.
PADD 2 | PADD 4 | |||
Gasoline | Retail price | US$/gal | 3.02 | 3.03 |
Change in price | % | 3.01% | 2.03% | |
Change in price | ¢/gal | 9.10 | 6.14 | |
Diesel | Retail price | US$/gal | 3.57 | 3.44 |
Change in price | % | 1.82% | 1.53% | |
Change in price | ¢/gal | 6.49 | 5.26 | |
www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon |
Table 6: Impact of a 10% tariff on Imported Canadian Oil on Retail Prices in PADD 2 and 4
Retail diesel prices are expected to increase by ~6.50 cents/gal in PADD 2 and ~5.30 cents/gal in PADD 4 respectively. These increases are lower than the corresponding increases in retail gasoline prices in these regions from the tariff.
Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs
So, what would happen if Canada retaliated with similar 10% tariffs on oil imports from the US? As we showed about 20% of Canada’s crude oil refining capacity was imported from the US in 2023, 93% of which flowed to the provinces of New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario.
Table 7 summarizes our analysis of the impact of a 10% increase in WTI prices (the US benchmark) on retail prices in those provinces.
New Brunswick | Quebec | Ontario | |||
Gasoline | Retail price | US$/gal | 4.23 | 4.29 | 4.94 |
Change in price | % | 5.34% | 5.28% | 3.66% | |
Change in price | ¢/gal | 22.57 | 22.68 | 18.07 | |
Diesel | Retail price | US$/gal | 4.86 | 4.10 | 4.48 |
Change in price | % | 4.13% | 5.41% | 3.83% | |
Change in price | ¢/gal | 20.07 | 22.17 | 17.15 | |
www.linkedin.com/in/kaasegbakon |
Table 7: Impact of a 10% retaliatory tariff on Imported US Oil on Retail Prices in NB, QC, and ON
Expressing the retail fuel prices in US dollars, a retaliatory 10% on oil imports from the US will increase gasoline prices by ~ 23 cents/gal (6 cents/Ltr) in New Brunswick and Quebec, and 18 cents/gal (~ 5 cents/Ltr) in Ontario.
The Canadian provinces that import US oil will be more impacted by retaliatory tariffs than the US regions that import Canadian oil.
However, due to the access to tide water the refineries located in these provinces have greater optionality to access crude from overseas. This optionality may help to blunt the impact of a reciprocal tariff – if this is ever considered.
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CONCLUSION
The assessment presented here highlights how tightly coupled the US and Canadian energy systems are. While Canada is a dominant energy supplier to the US, the US is a critical energy supplier especially to Canada’s eastern flank.
Much attention has been paid to the impact to US consumers of tariffs on imported Canadian oil noting that 60% of US oil imports is met by Canadian supplies mostly from Alberta. Much less emphasized is that the portion of Canadian supply which flows to PADD 2 and 4 make up 60% of these land-locked regions’ total refining capacity (4.5 MMbpd). Consequently, our impact analysis here suggests a ~ 2% – 3% increase in retail fuel prices in the Midwest and Rockies – where the bulk of Canadian oil is refined in the US.
On the other hand, 20% of Canada’s refining capacity is met by US imported oil, 93% of which flows to New Brunswick, Quebec and Ontario. This is not a widely mentioned fact. If a retaliatory 10% tariff were slapped on US oil imports, retail prices in those provinces could see at least a 20 cent/gal increase in fuel prices (which is 4% – 5%+).
The announcement of broad US tariffs on imports from Canada, and especially on energy has shocked Canadians. A TD Bank report titled “Trump Canada Trade” concluded that “the lesson that should be learned in Canada is that there can be no guarantee against future tariff attacks.”
A very likely outcome of this tariff spat, even if it lasts no longer than the current US administration, will be a rethinking of Canada’s energy security strategy. For the US, it highlights the risks of disrupting a relationship that has long been a cornerstone of North American energy stability The winds of change will soon sweep over Ottawa and irrespective of whose wings are buoyed, there is an opportunity for a Canadian reset.
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