If SaskPower carries through with rejuvenating coal, it will save three power plants, two mines, ~1000 jobs and two communities

 

 

REGINA, ESTEVAN – On Jan. 15-16, the Government of Saskatchewan made one of the largest policy direction changes in decades, announcing that instead of shutting down coal-fired power generation by 2030, it was looking to rejuvenate it for decades to come.

It turns out the 100+ stories Pipeline Online has published over the last three years questioning why we are throwing away what we know works, coal and natural gas, for what we know absolutely doesn’t work, wind and solar, have made a difference.

Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison was in Coronach on Jan. 15 and Estevan on Jan. 16, where he spoke to coal workers, telling them that coal actually has a future in Saskatchewan. On Jan. 17, he spoke to Pipeline Online by phone in detail. (Harrison is also scheduled to appear on the Pipeline Online Podcast at 1 p.m. on Jan. 24, to discuss this in even further depth.)

The significance of the shift on coal cannot be understated. When SaskPower’s then-CEO Mike Marsh came to Estevan in 2018 to say they would not be installing carbon capture technology on Boundary Dam Units 4 and 5, it wasn’t the obituary for the community, but it sure felt like the cancer diagnosis. And with no talk of carbon capture for Coronach’s Poplar River Power station, it seemed all but certain that town would whither away once the coal plant and related mine shut down by the federally mandated 2030 deadline. The January, 2025, announcement of SaskPower looking to rebuild both Boundary Dam and Poplar River, if carried out, would be a decades-long reprieve for both communities.

To extend the metaphor, effectively Estevan and Coronach just went into chemotherapy, and the results may be positive.

The implications of this change in direction, from the impending death of coal, to its possible rejuvenation, have local, provincial, national and international aspects. Locally, between Estevan and Coronach, there’s roughly 1,000 jobs directly related to coal-mining and coal-fired power generation, many of which pay over $100,000 per year. But there are numerous indirect jobs, everything from crane services to machining to hydraulics and hairdressers. Why do you think Finning has a dealership beside the Estevan mine?

Provincially, it means we’re going to keep using a fuel mostly owned by the people of Saskatchewan, instead of paying for Alberta natural gas. And while we pay about a third of a billion per year to mine it, we charge ourselves next to nothing for that coal. Our coal royalties are a rounding error, essentially. And in keeping substantial baseload generation operating, we will limit our exposure to the vagaries of the weather, like when SaskPower saw zero wind generation for seven days in January, 2024.

 

It will also likely be some of the most significant fiscal decisions the Government of Saskatchewan will make, probably for the next 20 years.

Nationally, we are essentially telling the federal government, with its Clean Electricity Regulations meant to eliminate fossil fuels from the electrical grid, to go to hell. This was a key point behind the Saskatchewan First Act. This action, if carried out to the fullest, is the embodiment of that act.

And internationally, it means Canada’s commitments to international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord will be unachievable. We will be thumbing our nose at those who seek to eliminate coal consumption here, but aren’t so picky about it in China or India.

But most significantly, it will allow Saskatchewan to keep the lights on until we can start deploying nuclear power at scale.

Harrison said on Jan.18, “It’s exciting, and you played a role in this too, Brian, like a significant role. And if you want me to say that on the record, I’m happy to, but I want you to know that that you have played a very important role in this. I’ve read everything you have written for years, and that has that was kind of the basis of my thinking when I became minister.”

Here’s the interview with the minister, verbatim, so that readers can understand the true depth of what this all means.

 

 

Pipeline Online:

Everyone thought coal was dead. Why the change?

 

Jeremy Harrison:

Well, we had said actually that we were going to continue with our existing facilities in operation. And that was BD3, and Shand, to end of life. And for Shand, that would have been at least 2042.

But really, you know, at the end of the day, what direction I had given to SaskPower, and what government had given, as far as direction for SaskPower, based on what we had heard during the campaign, what the public are concerned about are a couple of things, and that is reliability and affordability. That’s what the that’s what our actual customers, of SaskPower, the people of this province, and our customers in the industry, that’s what they’re concerned about.

So based on those two lenses, we have taken a very hard look about what that future is going to be, and that is why we’ve directed SaskPower to spend the next few months, and we’ve given an undertaking to our employees at both at both Boundary Dam and at Poplar River that we will have a definitive answer by summer about what that future is going to look like.

But coal is a very, very affordable, and I think there is no (way) you can beat the reliability. And that’s been shown by our operations of our coal facilities for many, many, many decades. But it is extraordinarily reliable.

And on the affordability front, we own the resource. We know what it costs, because we actually own it. We’re not importing coal. We have a supply that is measured in the hundreds of years, that exists within short distances from the facilities that use that as fuel to produce power.

So that really has been what has informed the direction that we are going in. I firmly believe there is a long-term future for coal. You know, there’s obviously, I think there’s a changing discussion around what is important across the country, when it comes to electricity and other matters as well. Whereas people have seen what significant inflationary pressures and the affordability pressures that come along with that mean for their daily lives. People do not want to pay more than they than they have to for reliable power, and that really is informing the direction that we’re taking at SaskPower.

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Pipeline Online:

So Saskatchewan natural gas production has been falling off a cliff. We’ve only drilled 10 gas wells in the last 10 years, whereas Alberta has probably done that in the last day. How does the fact that we own the coal and charge ourselves next to nothing for it, versus having to buy gas and seeing every dollar that goes across the border not come back, how does that factor into this?

Jeremy Harrison:

Well, it’s a significant factor. It absolutely is. You know, we’re importing at this point a significant component of our gas that is being used to generate power at our gas facilities.

Like I said, I know where all the coal comes from, and I know what the price is because we own it. That means for as far as fuel cost, we know what that x in the equation is, not just today or tomorrow, but we know what that x in the equation is over decades. That can’t be said with other fuel sources, and obviously natural gas is a part of that, and when you’re looking out into the long term as well, a Poilievre government is committed to making sure that they can get gas to export markets around the world. That is going to have an impact on the price of gas that would be paid over the course of that life span of facilities that are either online now or coming online shortly. So that is a major consideration of how we approach a balanced power generation mix over decades. And that is really informing a big part of our discussion about what that future is going to look like.

Because we do know, as you well pointed out, we do know what coal cost, because we own it, and we have a supply measured in the hundreds of years of it. So any x’s in the equation about the commodity price are not there for coal, as they would be for other sources.

 

Pipeline Online:

Yeah, so when LNG Canada comes online, I think the era of $2 gas is gone.

Jeremy Harrison:

Absolutely.

Pipeline Online:

Most people don’t realize that. The whole idea about exporting is to get other people to give us money, but that’s also going to increase the price in Western Canada.

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Jeremy Harrison:

Yeah, yeah. I mean, that’s absolutely the case. And, I absolutely believe Pierre as well, that as prime minister, he is going to make it possible to get … and this is a good thing. I mean, this is a positive thing for West Canada, that we will no longer have land locked resources, that we are getting a massive discount for. We have the same issue on our oil production, as you well know. We’re getting a massive discount on our oil. And this is really what has put us in the position we are beholden to our single largest exporter from Western Canada to the United States, which is the entire discussion going on, as far as tariffs right now. If we had pipelines that were built either west or both to Eastern Canada, Western Canada, all of the above on pipelines. That’s what I’ve always said. And we were getting the world price and able to actually move our product to tide water, this would be a very, very different discussion on tariffs with Trump right now.

Pipeline Online:

So what exactly is the government and SaskPower doing? Are we looking at just running coal until the wheels fall off, or are you looking to rejuvenate and rebuild those plants?

Jeremy Harrison:

The latter, what we are looking at is a complete refurbishment.

We’ve done it before. People, I think, outside of the outside of the sector, probably don’t know this, but we have done this before. We have completely refurbished a coal unit, and that was at Boundary Dam 3. You know, carbon capture was attached as a part of that project, but the actual unit itself was completely refurbished. So, so we have the expertise within the company to do this, because we’ve done it in the last decade.

So, we are going through the economics on all of that right now. There are, you know, some technical things that we do have to work our way through. But, I think it’s fair to say that, you know, we have the expertise in this, we have a pretty good understanding as to what, what the cost had been through that project. We have a very clear understanding. And we also know what some of the costs are for the alternative. So we’re going to, as we work through this, take a very, very hard look, and I’ll tell you this, we’re going to do what’s right for the people of this province.

We’re going to do that, irregardless of what federal policy is on these things as well. I’ve been very clear that it is our view, it is the government’s view, this is an entire this area is entirely within the jurisdiction of the government of Saskatchewan. The Government of Canada does not have standing in this discussion at all. I do not care what they have to say. What matters is what is right for the people here in this province, what is right for our communities, and at the end of the day, what is going to provide the most reliable and affordable baseload power generation that we can provide for our public.

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Pipeline Online:

Is additional carbon capture going to be part of the plans, or is this going to be conventional coal?

Jeremy Harrison:

There’s going to be consideration given to that. So again, we have to understand the economics on those elements. And what I’ve asked, though, is that we really consider the broader economics around it. I want to get to, and the premier has been very clear, we want to get to a million barrels of oil production, here, in this province, per day. The only way we’re going to get there is likely with a significant element of carbon injection. And you know, we’re going to have to work through that with industry as well. They’re going to have have input into what that would look like, but looking at how we generate power, I would say that we’re very open to that, but we’re going to do it in a way that makes a macro economic sense for the province, and that really will encompass what we’re able to achieve by way of increased oil production, and what that oil production would mean for royalties and revenue for the people of the province, as compared to a cost of a carbon capture addition.

And I would say that SaskPower really done a very good job. I mean, this year I actually just got the Q4 numbers on BD3. We’ve achieved 85% availability on BD3. And it’s been a challenge. I mean, this was a first of a kind, and there were a lot of lessons that were learned through this process, but we’ve got to the point where I think we have a very, very firm handle on the technology, how it works, how we can manage it. So it will be a part of the of the discussion and consideration about how we’re going to move forward on this, too.

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Pipeline Online:

So my back of the napkin math, based on BD3, Beulah, North Dakota, and what’s happening at the Weyburn Unit is that if you put carbon capture full-scale on Boundary Dam 6 and on Shand, you’re probably looking at an incremental increase of roughly 50,000 barrels, ball park.

 

Jeremy Harrison:

Yeah. And, you know, I’m not going to comment on the specifics yet. I know, I think that that’s probably in the very much in the realm of possibility, but you know, we’re gonna crunch the numbers, we’re gonna work through that, and, you know, we will make the decision on (it). Like I said, I’m very open to having carbon capture as a part of this, but we need the numbers to make sense. We also have that objective of reaching a million barrels of oil production, here, in the province, so that’s a part of the conversation as well.

Pipeline Online:

Some people are concerned about emissions, and as you talk about possibly carbon capture could be part of us. But I mean, the whole thing about running continued coal is that the federal government, one wants us to stop, and two, some people think the world is going to end if we keep burning coal. How is emissions going to factor into all this?

Jeremy Harrison:

Well, look, it doesn’t matter what we’re doing, according to the federal government under their Clean Electricity Regulations, whatever we did was going to be illegal. We couldn’t build a new natural gas plant today that wouldn’t be illegal. Even a natural gas plant, with carbon capture approved, would have been illegal.

The only thing that would have been legal under the federal government law, right now, is wind and solar, that that’s basically it. So, regardless of what we had done, it would be, according to them, it would wouldn’t be legal. So you know what, we’re going to do, what’s what’s right by the people of the province, through those two lenses, and that’s reliability and affordability.

As I said, carbon capture will be a part of the discussion. I think the technology has matured, and we really have been the driving force in in maturing that technology. But, you know, I think we need to be realistic about some things, too.

I mean the rest of the world are burning coal, are not keeping it in the ground, and frankly, even in this country. The Liberal government, who have made burning basically any sort of fossil fuel for power generation illegal into the future, have facilitated the export, the mining and the export of coal, from this country, from mine sites in Alberta and British Columbia, to be put onto trains to be shipped to the Port of Vancouver, to be taken off the trains could then be loaded onto ships that sail across the Pacific Ocean, that are unloaded in Asian markets – Japan, others are put on trains in those jurisdictions, are then taken to thermal coal plants that are burned unmitigated.

What have they achieved by doing any of that?

So we need to be realistic about this. And what is realistic is that Canada is responsible for a very small portion of greenhouse gas emissions globally. We have taken this seriously here as well. About 30 per cent of our of our generation capacity is renewable at this point in this province, which is significant, and there’s a significant cost associated with that. Having a balanced power generation mix, I think, is responsible and what the public would expect of us.

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Pipeline Online:

How does this impact future wind and solar plans? Because SaskPower has a goal of 3000 megawatts additional wind and solar.

Jeremy Harrison:

Yeah. I mean, that’s going to be a part of the discussion as well. I would say, I think we would not be averse to bringing on some additional renewable, but what I have given, as far as direction, is that we need to focus on the reliability of our grid, and that means baseload power generation that we know is going to work, that we have no question about whether we’re going to have to back up. And that means that really is the catalyst for why we’re looking at the extension of the lives and the refurbishment of our coal units.

 

Pipeline Online:

So how does it impact the SMR plans, and the fact that if we do carry through of SMRs, nuclear is notorious for being long on time and budget? Does this give us breathing room to get there? And to replace our coal fleet, we would need five SMRs, not just one.

Jeremy Harrison:

Yeah, I think my short answer is ‘Precisely.’ So you know, I’m very committed to nuclear. I think you know that. I’m very committed to nuclear. I’m from northern Saskatchewan. A lot of my constituents work in the uranium mining industry. I want to get to a point where we have widespread deployment of baseload nuclear power generation.

But what history has shown us on nuclear power generation is that it takes longer, and it costs more money. We need to make sure that we have that reliability of our grid over the next two to three decades.

I do want to deploy nuclear. By 2050 I would love to have you know the vast majority of our power generation being nuclear, but we don’t know that can be possible, yet. And it’s not through any lack of will. It’s not through any lack of expertise in SaskPower. I mean, we are partners with with other power companies in this project, and we are not the lead on it, so when it comes to SMRs, for example. So there are a lot of x’s in that equation yet that we don’t know the answers to, both on the on the time frame and on the cost.

We do know the time frame and the cost on coal power generation.

So, we want to get to nuclear. We want to get to the point where we have widespread deployment of nuclear. That is the plan; that is the long term objective. But we have to get there first, and that means that we need to have reliable baseload power generation over the next couple of decades that we know is going to be there and that we have a fuel source for and it’s going to work.

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Pipeline Online:

Regarding mining, have you had the conversation with the mine? Because right now, they’ve basically been in end-of-life mode. They haven’t been putting a lot of money into new iron. Have you told them, ‘Hey, we might need to go for a few more decades here, and you might need to buy a new dragline or two and some new dozers to get us there?’

Jeremy Harrison:

Yeah, I have. So we’ve been in contact and discussion. I talked to the CEO of Westmoreland a few days ago and gave the heads up and said, ‘Look, we’re going through this process. You need to go through a process as well that if the if the determination is that we’re going to refurbish existing coal power generation, and we’re going to be generating 1000-plus megawatts of coal fired power going forward. You need to do your work internally at the company as well, about what will need to be done as far as reinvestment into plant and equipment.’

So they’re going through that process as well. I met with the mining union as well yesterday, and gave the we had the same discussion. (It was) very, very positive, which you can imagine. So I think that we have that.

And what I want to underline is this: What we did in the last couple of days is I wanted to be able to tell everybody personally. So that’s why we met with the employees at all of our facilities. That’s why we met with the management teams. That was why we had the discussion with our really significant stakeholders in this space. So that meant municipal governments, both the City and RM of Estevan, that meant the RM of Heart Butte, that meant the Town of Coronach, and that meant with our, with our employees.

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Pipeline Online  19:07

I guess I wanted to ask you here, when you talked to the CEO of Westmoreland, did he have to pick his jaw up off the floor?

Jeremy Harrison:

Well, I can’t speak for kind of their reaction, but I would just say what, they were very supportive and and I wanted to make sure that they were aware this is what we’re looking at. And you know, they needed to, obviously plan for a lot of implications of how they’re going to operate their business. That’s up to them, how they do that. But, you know, obviously they were, they were pretty happy. I think it’d be fair to say that.

 

Pipeline Online:

What about the impact of Carbon Tax / Output Based Pricing? Aren’t we setting ourselves up to be pummeled, if not by this federal administration, but by a future one down the road.

 

Jeremy Harrison:

Well, what I can tell you to that is I have heard repeatedly from who I very much hope to be the next prime minister, and expect to be in Pierre Poilievre, is that the carbon tax is going to be axed, and that is what I have heard over and over. I didn’t see any asterisk on that pronouncement about different elements of the carbon tax. So, I would hope that what the federal government would do is move out of this space, get rid of the backstop. And, if provinces wanted to have a heavy emitter component, or an output-based system, they could do that. We would not be taxing ourselves. It would make no sense for us to have an industrial carbon tax on, on our, on ourselves, which is what it would boil down to if we were taxing electricity production.

 

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Pipeline Online:

Is there anything I haven’t asked about you’d like to mention or include?

 

Jeremy Harrison:

You know, one other thing I think this actually: What I am very hopeful and what I want this, to where I want to end up. I really do see Saskatchewan having not just the potential, but the opportunity to be an energy production powerhouse. I really believe that we have that opportunity.

We are very fortunate in some ways, we are less fortunate in not having hydro and others, but I think we are positioned, and could be positioned, to really be a power export powerhouse. And it will also give us the opportunity to attract investment into areas that we might not have been able to, very high power use, sort of projects which are which are looking for homes right now around the world, and there really is a dearth of long-term, high-capacity power generation that will be coming online that could even match the increase in demand that’s going to exist out there. I think we have a genuine opportunity here, to position Saskatchewan as both an exporter of power and also as a very, very attractive destination for investment for high power use projects.

Pipeline Online:

One more question: You have the support of the premier and cabinet on this?

Jeremy Harrison:

Absolutely. This is, this is a Government of Saskatchewan initiative and direction. We have had some extremely good discussions, and I can tell you, there is a huge amount of enthusiasm on the part of the Government of Saskatchewan for moving in this direction, really, based on what we had heard from the public during election, the focus being reliability and affordability. That’s what people that’s what matters to people. And that is why, you know, we are really moving down and in the path we are, very enthusiastically.

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Watch for the Pipeline Online Podcast, Episode 2, to be broadcast on LinkedIn, Facebook and X at 1 p.m. on Friday, Jan. 24.. Crown Investments Corp Minister Jeremy Harrison is the guest, where we will delve even further into this new direction on coal-fired power generation.

X (works best): https://x.com/Pipeline_Online 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianzinchuk/

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pipelineonlineca/

It will eventually be posted to YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify