Brian Zinchuk is editor and owner of Pipeline Online
Gasoline trucks line in front storage tank at the North Jiddah bulk plant, an Aramco oil facility, in Jiddah, Saudi Arabia, Sunday, March 21, 2021.Saudi Arabia’s state-backed oil giant Aramco says that its profits sharply fell in 2020 to $49 billion. The big drop came as the coronavirus pandemic roiled global energy markets. (AP Photo/Amr Nabil)
OPEC’s review of 2023 and outlook for 2024, verbatim
In its December monthly oil market report, OPEC forecast substantial year-over-year growth expected in oil demand for 2024. Non-OPEC supply growth is forecast to be 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023, of which 70% was from the US. In the coming year, non-OPEC supply growth is expected to be 1.4 million barrels per year, again driven by the US, but Canadian oilsands expansion does get a mention.
“In 2024, world oil demand growth is forecast at 2.2 mb/d for an average of 104.4 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment. Oil demand is expected to be supported by resilient global GDP growth, amid continued improvements in economic activity in China. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.3 mb/d to reach 46.1 mb/d. Oil demand in the OECD is not expected to surpass 2019 consumption levels. OECD Americas is seen as leading growth, while OECD Europe and Asia Pacific are expected to recover from their 2023 contraction, primarily supported by transportation fuels, particularly gasoline and jet/kerosene. In non-OECD, oil demand is projected to grow by a healthy 1.9 mb/d, at 58.3 mb/d. Continuous improvements in economic activity, steady manufacturing, and transportation activity mostly in China, Other Asia, and the Middle East, as well as in India and Latin America, are expected to account for the bulk of oil consumption”
Here is the summary of the report, verbatim, from OPEC:
Economic growth seen in the first three quarters this year in most key economies had been better than expected. With this, the global economic forecast for 2023 is expected at 2.9%. As this robust economic growth is expected to extend into 2024, the global economic growth is forecasted at 2.6% for the year 2024.
In OECD economies, the robust growth observed in the US during 1H23 and 3Q23 is expected to moderate slightly, with a steady trajectory anticipated in 4Q23 and throughout 2024. The Eurozone that witnessed lower-than-anticipated growth up to 3Q23 is expected to see a slight pickup in 4Q23 and in 2024. Japan’s economic growth exceeded its potential in 1H23, with a projected normalization in 2H23 and throughout 2024. In the non-OECD group, India, Brazil and Russia exhibited robust economic growth surpassing expectations up to 3Q23, with this trend expected to persist in 4Q23 and throughout 2024. In China, prudent government measures supported the country in achieving its 2023 growth target, with a marginal slowdown expected in 2024. Global economic challenges in 2024 remain with some upside potential, including an improved global macro environment driven by accommodative monetary policies and a more favourable geopolitical landscape.
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Expectations for economic growth in 2023 and 2024 are expected to play a defining role in shaping global oil demand. The forecast for y-o-y (year-over-year) global oil demand growth in 2023 is 2.5 mb/d, primarily driven by the non-OECD at a robust 2.4 mb/d, y-o-y, expansion. China’s economic rebound is a major driver, following the relaxation of COVID restrictions, contributing to a leading, y-o-y, growth of 1.2 mb/d. Within the OECD region, OECD Americas is expected to expand by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, driven by steady jet fuel recovery, coupled with robust gasoline requirements. Conversely, OECD Europe and Asia Pacific demand remains weak. Looking ahead to 2024, global oil demand is forecast to rise by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, y-o-y. OECD oil demand is expected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, predominantly in OECD Americas, with other regions also showing some growth. In the non-OECD, a 2.0 mb/d, y-o-y, increase is projected, with China and the Middle East leading the way, supported by Other Asia and India. This forecast centres on sustained economic and petrochemical activity across major consumer nations, which fosters demand for transportation fuels and distillates in 2024.
On the supply side, non-OPEC supply growth is forecasted at 1.8 mb/d in 2023. Notably, the US is expected to account for around 70% of this expansion, with a, y-o-y, liquids production increase of 1.3 mb/d. Other key contributors to this growth include Brazil, Kazakhstan, Norway, Guyana, Mexico and China. As for 2024, non-OPEC supply is forecast to expand, y-o-y, by 1.4 mb/d. Growth drivers include US tight oil output, offshore start-ups in Latin America and the North Sea, and the expansion of oil sands projects in Canada. The US is projected again to lead the growth, comprising about 44% of the total, followed by Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan. Non-OPEC upstream sector investment is estimated at around $487 billion in 2023, up 11%, y-o-y, but this is forecast to drop slightly to around $482 billion in 2024.
As 2023 draws to an end, the OPEC Secretariat remains cautiously optimistic about the fundamental factors affecting oil market dynamics in 2024. In response to the broad spectrum of uncertainties that continues to surround the global oil market, many countries participating in DoC announced in November 2023 additional voluntary adjustments in 1Q24 to help maintain stability and balance in global oil markets. Indeed, countries participating in DoC will continue on these commitments to achieve and sustain a stable oil market and provide long-term guidance for the market.
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